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More ADP Analysis From the Mock Draft Army

A couple of weeks ago, we introduced a little project we were working on called the Mock Draft Army. In a nutshell, the Army is a rotating group of fantasy baseball writers from a variety of web sites who gathered and put together a series of mock drafts to help give you a better idea of what the ADP trends looked like in action. The drafts were made up of about half writers and half readers committed to doing the draft in its entirety, hoping to replicate what you’ll actually see on draft day. To keep it fresh, the writers were told to mix up their strategies to provide both a diverse and, hopefully, more realistic looking draft.

We brought you a look at the first Mock Draft Army draft here and compared some of the ADP trends between it and the ADP data from the NFBC. That first draft, however, was just 12 teams. With more NFBC drafts happening this weekend and next, the Army has been doing more 15-teamers lately and we thought now to be a good time to bring you another draft ADP analysis. We’ll take a look at it in the same way we did before. We’ll do two parts over this weekend and bring you a pair of four-round sections from our latest go-around. You’ll get a look at the sixty picks per section and we’ll highlight both the reaches and those who dropped further down the draft board in comparison.

So here’s a link to the entire draft so you may follow along at home and below, we’ll take a look at Rounds 1-4 and Rounds 7-10

Rounds 1-4

Player Pos Team Drafted NFBC ADP % Diff
Miguel Cabrera 3B DET 1 1.84 84.00%
Ryan Braun OF MIL 2 2.28 14.00%
Mike Trout OF LAA 3 2.01 -33.00%
Robinson Cano 2B NYY 4 4.69 17.25%
Troy Tulowitzki SS COL 5 15.17 203.40%
Matt Kemp OF LAD 6 5.68 -5.33%
Joey Votto 1B CIN 7 8.46 20.86%
Andrew McCutchen OF PIT 8 5.99 -25.13%
Carlos Gonzalez OF COL 9 9.90 10.00%
Clayton Kershaw SP LAD 10 16.66 66.60%
Albert Pujols 1B STL 11 7.60 -30.91%
Giancarlo Stanton OF MIA 12 14.49 20.75%
Jose Bautista OF TOR 13 19.24 48.00%
Prince Fielder 1B DET 14 9.93 -29.07%
Justin Upton OF ATL 15 19.93 32.87%
Josh Hamilton OF LAA 16 15.12 -5.50%
Adrian Beltre 3B TEX 17 20.71 21.82%
Bryce Harper OF WAS 18 24.05 33.61%
Jason Heyward OF ATL 19 27.68 45.68%
Buster Posey C SF 20 16.62 -16.90%
Stephen Strasburg SP WAS 21 15.49 -26.24%
Justin Verlander SP DET 22 15.46 -29.73%
Jose Reyes SS TOR 23 21.20 -7.83%
Evan Longoria 3B TB 24 20.35 -15.21%
David Wright 3B NYM 25 26.57 6.28%
David Price SP TB 26 29.35 12.88%
Hanley Ramirez SS, 3B LAD 27 22.50 -16.67%
Yoenis Cespedes OF OAK 28 37.66 34.50%
Dustin Pedroia 2B BOS 29 26.50 -8.62%
Adrian Gonzalez 1B LAD 30 33.87 12.90%
Starlin Castro SS CHC 31 36.53 17.84%
Anthony Rizzo 1B CHC 32 93.66 192.69%
Edwin Encarnacion 1B TOR 33 27.92 -15.39%
Paul Goldschmidt 1B ARI 34 46.16 35.76%
Ian Kinsler 2B TEX 35 31.21 -10.83%
Adam Jones OF BAL 36 29.78 -17.28%
Cole Hamels SP PHI 37 42.08 13.73%
Ryan Zimmerman 3B WAS 38 35.99 -5.29%
Billy Butler SP KC 39 44.28 13.54%
B.J. Upton OF ATL 40 40.92 2.30%
Craig Kimbrel RP ATL 41 47.75 16.46%
Jay Bruce OF CIN 42 41.82 -0.43%
Jacoby Ellsbury OF BOS 43 34.47 -19.84%
Freddie Freeman 1B ATL 44 74.87 70.16%
Jered Weaver SP LAA 45 54.56 21.24%
Matt Holliday OF STL 46 46.25 0.54%
Yu Darvish SP TEX 47 44.28 -5.79%
Aramis Ramirez 3B MIL 48 49.71 3.56%
Felix Hernandez SP SEA 49 39.52 -19.35%
Wilin Rosario C COL 50 79.77 59.54%
Ben Zobrist 2B, SS, OF TB 51 49.33 -3.27%
Michael Bourn OF CLE 52 78.54 51.04%
Cliff Lee SP PHI 53 48.58 -8.34%
Matt Cain SP SF 54 45.43 -15.87%
Allen Craig 1B STL 55 49.84 -9.38%
Desmond Jennings OF TB 56 68.32 22.00%
Alex Gordon OF KC 57 85.97 50.82%
Martin Prado 3B ARI 58 98.99 70.67%
Jason Kipnis 2B CLE 59 58.34 -1.12%
Joe Mauer C MIN 60 57.46 -4.23%

Too Soon?

If you’re simply looking at it percentage-wise, the biggest reach of the draft was actually found here in the first round as a reader who went by the moniker Rosinbagger (a fantastic nod to the always-popular movie Rookie of the Year), surprisingly took Troy Tulowitzki with the fifth overall pick. Position scarcity is something to which many pay close attention in a 15-teame league, so while that aspect may be understandable, the selection of Tulo, whose NFBC ADP indicates more of an early second round selection, was very out-of-character for a straight snake-draft. If the health concerns weren’t as high as they are with him, the pick would be a no-brainer, but most like to play it safe with their first-round pick and go with much less of an injury risk.

Similarly to the first draft, we see another reach for Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Despite an ADP in the low-90’s in NFBC drafts, RotoWire’s Erik Siegrist opted to use his third round selection to make Rizzo the 32nd overall pick, an increase of 192.69-percent. There is plenty of belief in Rizzo’s talent and many expect him to come close to the30-home run plateau, but given what we’ve seen in so many other drafts, it is very possible that he would have been available at least a few rounds later. Of course, this should also show you that highly-coveted players will be reached for in drafts and if you have someone that you just can’t live the fantasy season without, you may have to adjust your strategy and reach for them if you think others want him just a badly as you do.

Given his position eligibility at third base and the outfield, it comes as little surprise to see Martin Prado grabbed earlier than normal. Of course, a 40-pick reach seems a little high for a guy with low-end power but a strong average, but avid reader and listener to the RotoWire show on SiriusXM Fantasy Radio Billy Haze made the pick. I actually don’t mind it, but would feel more comfortable reaching like that for him in a league with a lower game requirement for eligibility. While Prado has 3B and OF eligibility in the NFBC, in a league with a 10-games played minimum, he also grabs eligibility at both short and second as well.

Surprised They Fell?

In truth, there really weren’t many who slipped through too far in these first four rounds. Jacoby Ellsbury (-19.84%), Felix Hernandez (-19.35%), and and Matt Cain (-15.87%) each fell between eight and ten picks, but overall, most everyone who supposedly fell only did so within a five-pick span. While that’s encouraging to see, with respect to predictability, it’s also a bit of a bummer as there’s nothing better than being that guy who catches the player who slips and landing a true bargain.

With respect to these three who fell the most, none of them should be surprising really. There is definitely a split contingency over Ellsbury’s true value. Some still believe in that ridiculous 2011 season while others still view him as nothing more than a glorified stolen base threat who has the potential of hitting roughly 15 homers as opposed to 30. The elbow issues that King Felix suffered from during his contract negotiations are still fresh in everyone’s mind despite the Mariners assuaged feelings and for some reason, Cain gets no respect as a high-end starter. Those who have owned him before are certainly in-the-know, but his low-profile, unassuming persona  and a perpetually out-performed FIP keeps him from going too high.

Rounds 7-10

Player Pos Team Drafted NFBC ADP % Diff
Curtis Granderson OF NYY 120 71.68 -40.27%
Zack Greinke SP LAD 100 59.88 -40.12%
Jimmy Rollins SS PHI 93 57.54 -38.13%
R.A. Dickey SP TOR 102 70.69 -30.70%
Roy Halladay SP PHI 133 92.97 -30.10%
Chris Sale SP CHW 96 69.19 -27.93%
CC Sabathia SP NYY 103 74.88 -27.30%
Mat Latos SP CIN 118 89.56 -24.10%
Kris Medlen SP ATL 99 76.24 -22.99%
Rickie Weeks 2B MIL 141 109.74 -22.17%
Jordan Zimmermann SP WAS 116 92.46 -20.29%
Yovani Gallardo SP MIL 105 89.23 -15.02%
Carlos Beltran OF STL 140 121.01 -13.56%
Shane Victorino OF BOS 127 111.01 -12.59%
Hunter Pence OF SF 129 112.84 -12.53%
Matt Moore SP TB 108 95.80 -11.30%
Elvis Andrus SS TEX 98 87.21 -11.01%
Adam LaRoche 1B WAS 142 127.79 -10.01%
Brandon Morrow SP TOR 132 122.46 -7.23%
Ian Kennedy SP ARI 143 133.48 -6.66%
Asdrubal Cabrera SS CLE 104 97.40 -6.35%
Chase Utley 2B PHI 128 121.11 -5.38%
Carl Crawford OF LAD 138 133.48 -3.28%
Jose Altuve 2B HOU 97 93.94 -3.15%
Norichika Aoki OF MIL 144 141.53 -1.72%
C.J. Wilson SP LAA 150 149.23 -0.51%
Jim Johnson RP BAL 137 136.92 -0.06%
Carlos Gomez OF MIL 114 114.09 0.08%
Jeff Samardzija SP CHC 123 124.12 0.91%
Jon Lester SP BOS 134 141.57 5.65%
Jesus Montero C SEA 112 118.47 5.78%
Salvador Perez C KC 94 100.88 7.32%
Sergio Romo RP SF 136 146.31 7.58%
Mark Trumbo OF LAA 92 99.86 8.54%
Mariano Rivera RP NYY 121 133.35 10.21%
Greg Holland RP KC 135 151.84 12.47%
Rafael Soriano RP WAS 113 128.65 13.85%
Addison Reed RP CHW 148 169.98 14.85%
Joe Nathan RP TEX 115 133.28 15.90%
J.J. Putz RP ARI 125 147.78 18.22%
Chris Davis 1B BAL 106 126.03 18.90%
Josh Willingham OF OAK 101 122.00 20.79%
Jonathan Lucroy C MIL 107 131.08 22.50%
Tom Wilhelmsen RP SEA 124 155.61 25.49%
Glen Perkins RP MIN 147 184.52 25.52%
Fernando Rodney RP TB 91 114.98 26.35%
Danny Espinosa 2B WAS 109 137.86 26.48%
John Axford RP MIL 126 160.29 27.21%
Angel Pagan OF SF 131 168.65 28.74%
Ryan Doumit C MIN 130 171.32 31.78%
Jonathan Niese SP NYM 145 191.53 32.09%
Pedro Alvarez 3B PIT 139 183.73 32.18%
Alejandro DeAza OF CHW 146 195.58 33.96%
Homer Baily SP CIN 149 200.43 34.52%
Kyle Seager 3B SEA 119 162.31 36.39%
Nick Swisher OF CLE 117 161.97 38.44%
Todd Frazier 3B CIN 111 166.79 50.26%
Justin Morneau 1B MIN 110 181.51 65.01%
Cameron Maybin OF SD 122 215.51 76.65%
Mike Moustrakas 3B KC 95 177.92 87.28%

A Little Too Early

Funny enough, it was Rosinbagger again who had the biggest reach in these rounds, this time taking Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (+87.28%) a good 80 picks before where he normally goes in drafts. Granted, third base does get thin rather quickly in the early rounds and Moustakas is having a fantastic spring thanks to some mechanical adjustments at the plate, but this may have been one of those picks that could have waited a little longer.

So not to be shown up by Rosinbager, Erik Siegrist again joined int the reach party when he grabbed Cameron Maybin roughly 90 picks sooner than where he has normally gone in NFBC drafts. Maybin has always been a favorite of mine, and somewhat of an Achilles heel in my fantasy leagues. I just can’t seem to ever let him go. Now you’ve got the fences coming in at Petco and Maybin moving closer to his prime years, so there are renewed expectations. However, even I might not be so quick to take him so early when there are still so many who are down on him.

Versatile corner man Todd Frazier was selected by Anchormen in the eighth round roughly 55 picks before his NFBC ADP. Normally I wouldn’t go for a move like this, but considering the team had no first or third basemen this far into the draft, the reach seems a little more plausible. Personally, I like to get that corner power fairly early, but to each his own.

Free-Falling

A fair number of players fell a little further at this point in the draft, primarily the starting pitchers. Curtis Granderson had the biggest drop – 40.27% (~50 picks) – which, given his injury and recovery timetable, was expected. But seven of the next eight biggest fallers were all starting pitchers. People waiting on pitching is, obviously, nothing new, and when you have a starter like Zack Greinke who is experiencing elbow problems or CC Sabathia who has a knee issue compounded by a weight concern, further drops can be expected. Even in a 15-team league, I like to wait until the fifth or, usually, sixth round before grabbing my first starting pitcher. The position is just so loaded with talent.

Jimmy Rollins saw a significant drop of almost 40 picks in this draft, something that doesn’t necessarily seem like a regular occurrence but one that isn’t incredibly surprising. J-Roll is getting a little long in the tooth and his peripheral skills seem to be slowing down despite some good showings in the stolen base department. The bottom is sure to drop out at some point, but I don’t necessarily think that this is the year it happens. Bill Haze could have himself a fantastic bargain here in the seventh round.

Part 2 of the Mock Draft Army ADP Analysis coming soon…
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

Comments

By: rkinigson
On: 3/24/2013 7:07:00 AM
The links to the draft are not working.
 
By: red star rising
On: 3/24/2013 9:09:00 AM
Good stuff! While I find these ADP articles fascinating , I can't help but feel they are a little misleading. Mock drafts are always skewed by the default rankings of the site on which they are conducted. It would be really interesting to analyze the ADP across muliple sites, MDC, espn, CBS, and yahoo. You could pull so much information from that, like finding values relative to each site, analyzing the outliers, etc. don't know if any legalities prevent this form happening, but I thought I would throw the suggestion out anyway.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 3/24/2013 9:07:00 PM
Anybody who thinks Rizzo would actually have been there for my next pick (#59, when I took Kipnis), raise your hand.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 3/25/2013 11:57:00 AM
red star, MDC uses basically the same default rankings as Rotowire's Top 350 so any biases are 'in house', as it were, and at least in the mocks I've done over there I know I'm not the only one willing to go 'off-book' at times.

But comparing across different sites and formats would be an interesting thing to take a look at.
 

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