More ADP Analysis From the Mock Draft Army
A couple of weeks ago, we introduced a little project we were working on called the Mock Draft Army. In a nutshell, the Army is a rotating group of fantasy baseball writers from a variety of web sites who gathered and put together a series of mock drafts to help give you a better idea of what the ADP trends looked like in action. The drafts were made up of about half writers and half readers committed to doing the draft in its entirety, hoping to replicate what you’ll actually see on draft day. To keep it fresh, the writers were told to mix up their strategies to provide both a diverse and, hopefully, more realistic looking draft.
We brought you a look at the first Mock Draft Army draft here and compared some of the ADP trends between it and the ADP data from the NFBC. That first draft, however, was just 12 teams. With more NFBC drafts happening this weekend and next, the Army has been doing more 15-teamers lately and we thought now to be a good time to bring you another draft ADP analysis. We’ll take a look at it in the same way we did before. We’ll do two parts over this weekend and bring you a pair of four-round sections from our latest go-around. You’ll get a look at the sixty picks per section and we’ll highlight both the reaches and those who dropped further down the draft board in comparison.
So here’s a link to the entire draft so you may follow along at home and below, we’ll take a look at Rounds 1-4 and Rounds 7-10
|Player||Pos||Team||Drafted||NFBC ADP||% Diff|
|Hanley Ramirez||SS, 3B||LAD||27||22.50||-16.67%|
|Ben Zobrist||2B, SS, OF||TB||51||49.33||-3.27%|
If you’re simply looking at it percentage-wise, the biggest reach of the draft was actually found here in the first round as a reader who went by the moniker Rosinbagger (a fantastic nod to the always-popular movie Rookie of the Year), surprisingly took Troy Tulowitzki with the fifth overall pick. Position scarcity is something to which many pay close attention in a 15-teame league, so while that aspect may be understandable, the selection of Tulo, whose NFBC ADP indicates more of an early second round selection, was very out-of-character for a straight snake-draft. If the health concerns weren’t as high as they are with him, the pick would be a no-brainer, but most like to play it safe with their first-round pick and go with much less of an injury risk.
Similarly to the first draft, we see another reach for Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Despite an ADP in the low-90’s in NFBC drafts, RotoWire’s Erik Siegrist opted to use his third round selection to make Rizzo the 32nd overall pick, an increase of 192.69-percent. There is plenty of belief in Rizzo’s talent and many expect him to come close to the30-home run plateau, but given what we’ve seen in so many other drafts, it is very possible that he would have been available at least a few rounds later. Of course, this should also show you that highly-coveted players will be reached for in drafts and if you have someone that you just can’t live the fantasy season without, you may have to adjust your strategy and reach for them if you think others want him just a badly as you do.
Given his position eligibility at third base and the outfield, it comes as little surprise to see Martin Prado grabbed earlier than normal. Of course, a 40-pick reach seems a little high for a guy with low-end power but a strong average, but avid reader and listener to the RotoWire show on SiriusXM Fantasy Radio Billy Haze made the pick. I actually don’t mind it, but would feel more comfortable reaching like that for him in a league with a lower game requirement for eligibility. While Prado has 3B and OF eligibility in the NFBC, in a league with a 10-games played minimum, he also grabs eligibility at both short and second as well.
In truth, there really weren’t many who slipped through too far in these first four rounds. Jacoby Ellsbury (-19.84%), Felix Hernandez (-19.35%), and and Matt Cain (-15.87%) each fell between eight and ten picks, but overall, most everyone who supposedly fell only did so within a five-pick span. While that’s encouraging to see, with respect to predictability, it’s also a bit of a bummer as there’s nothing better than being that guy who catches the player who slips and landing a true bargain.
With respect to these three who fell the most, none of them should be surprising really. There is definitely a split contingency over Ellsbury’s true value. Some still believe in that ridiculous 2011 season while others still view him as nothing more than a glorified stolen base threat who has the potential of hitting roughly 15 homers as opposed to 30. The elbow issues that King Felix suffered from during his contract negotiations are still fresh in everyone’s mind despite the Mariners assuaged feelings and for some reason, Cain gets no respect as a high-end starter. Those who have owned him before are certainly in-the-know, but his low-profile, unassuming persona and a perpetually out-performed FIP keeps him from going too high.
|Player||Pos||Team||Drafted||NFBC ADP||% Diff|
Funny enough, it was Rosinbagger again who had the biggest reach in these rounds, this time taking Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (+87.28%) a good 80 picks before where he normally goes in drafts. Granted, third base does get thin rather quickly in the early rounds and Moustakas is having a fantastic spring thanks to some mechanical adjustments at the plate, but this may have been one of those picks that could have waited a little longer.
So not to be shown up by Rosinbager, Erik Siegrist again joined int the reach party when he grabbed Cameron Maybin roughly 90 picks sooner than where he has normally gone in NFBC drafts. Maybin has always been a favorite of mine, and somewhat of an Achilles heel in my fantasy leagues. I just can’t seem to ever let him go. Now you’ve got the fences coming in at Petco and Maybin moving closer to his prime years, so there are renewed expectations. However, even I might not be so quick to take him so early when there are still so many who are down on him.
Versatile corner man Todd Frazier was selected by Anchormen in the eighth round roughly 55 picks before his NFBC ADP. Normally I wouldn’t go for a move like this, but considering the team had no first or third basemen this far into the draft, the reach seems a little more plausible. Personally, I like to get that corner power fairly early, but to each his own.
A fair number of players fell a little further at this point in the draft, primarily the starting pitchers. Curtis Granderson had the biggest drop – 40.27% (~50 picks) – which, given his injury and recovery timetable, was expected. But seven of the next eight biggest fallers were all starting pitchers. People waiting on pitching is, obviously, nothing new, and when you have a starter like Zack Greinke who is experiencing elbow problems or CC Sabathia who has a knee issue compounded by a weight concern, further drops can be expected. Even in a 15-team league, I like to wait until the fifth or, usually, sixth round before grabbing my first starting pitcher. The position is just so loaded with talent.
Jimmy Rollins saw a significant drop of almost 40 picks in this draft, something that doesn’t necessarily seem like a regular occurrence but one that isn’t incredibly surprising. J-Roll is getting a little long in the tooth and his peripheral skills seem to be slowing down despite some good showings in the stolen base department. The bottom is sure to drop out at some point, but I don’t necessarily think that this is the year it happens. Bill Haze could have himself a fantastic bargain here in the seventh round.
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at firstname.lastname@example.org.