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More ADP Analysis From the Mock Draft Army -- Part 2

It’s time to take a look at the rest of the most recent Mock Draft Army ADP taken from a draft done in the middle of last week. There have actually been a few changes since this draft was completed, such as Vernon Wells becoming a Yankee, Kyle Lohse signing with the Brewers, Pablo Sandoval’s, elbow issue, David Freese’s back, Scott Kazmir and Shelby Miller winning the fifth starter’s spot on their respective team, just to name a few. As we move here into the final week of spring training, we’ll probably see a number of changes that could skew the overall ADP, but as I’ve said before, ADP is a guideline, not the gospel. So for what it’s worth, let’s take a look at the second half of the draft we began the other day.

For a look at the entire draft, click here.

For a look at the last article which covered the ADP from the first half of the draft, click here.

Again, to go through the entire draft would be a bit of overkill so we’re taking cross-sections. In today’s piece, we will be looking at the ADP from Rounds 13-16 and Rounds 20-23. That will cover a few rounds in the middle where we start to see some of the sleepers rise up and the back-end of the draft where we can dig up some real nice hidden gems who may have the potential to surprise and earn a great value.

Rounds 13-16

Player Pos Team Drafted NFBC ADP % Diff
Matt Harvey SP NYM 181 140.19 -22.55%
Hiroki Kuroda SP NYY 182 162.76 -10.57%
Adam Eaton OF ARI 183 218.78 19.55%
Anibal Sanchez SP DET 184 183.67 -0.18%
Dustin Ackley 2B SEA 185 219.36 18.57%
Howie Kendrick 2B LAA 186 147.57 -20.66%
Lance Lynn SP STL 187 190.55 1.90%
Nick Markakis OF BAL 188 174.84 -7.00%
J.P. Arencibia C TOR 189 220.46 16.65%
Dexter Fowler OF COL 190 193.96 2.08%
Rafael Betancourt RP COL 191 187.78 -1.69%
Alexei Ramirez SS CHW 192 190.11 -0.98%
Neil Walker 2B PIT 193 165.91 -14.04%
Emilio Bonifacio 2B TOR 194 216.75 11.73%
Alcides Escobar SS KC 195 155.53 -20.24%
Manny Machado 3B BAL 196 195.40 -0.31%
Bobby Parnell RP NYM 197 254.47 29.17%
Michael Cuddyer OF COL 198 168.97 -14.66%
Brett Anderson SP OAK 199 164.33 -17.42%
Grant Balfour RP OAK 200 186.91 -6.55%
Starling Marte OF PIT 201 206.78 2.88%
A.J. Burnett SP PIT 202 210.60 4.26%
Jason Kubel OF ARI 203 214.14 5.49%
Steve Cishek RP MIA 204 198.26 -2.81%
Alex Cobb SP TB 205 261.04 27.34%
Jake Peavy SP CHW 206 123.79 -39.91%
Hisahi Iwakuma SP SEA 207 273.43 32.09%
Jedd Gyorko 3B SD 208 247.85 19.16%
Tim Lincecum SP SF 209 136.22 -34.82%
A.J. Pierzynski C TEX 210 175.50 -16.43%
Andrelton Simmons SS ATL 211 239.13 13.33%
Kyuji Fujikawa RP CHC 212 262.25 23.70%
Kevin Youkilis 3B NYY 213 226.26 6.23%
Lorenzo Cain OF KC 214 225.16 5.21%
Juan Pierre OF MIA 215 238.90 11.12%
Josh Rutledge SS COL 216 148.46 -31.27%
Trevor Cahill SP ARI 217 232.91 7.33%
Brandon League RP LAD 218 211.66 -2.91%
Tim Hudson SP ATL 219 243.89 11.37%
Derek Holland SP TEX 220 256.96 16.80%
Jonathan Broxton RP CIN 221 223.89 1.31%
Dan Uggla 2B ATL 222 183.08 -17.53%
Alexi Ogando RP TEX 223 221.45 -0.70%
Domonic Brown OF PHI 224 321.31 43.44%
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C BOS 225 249.12 10.72%
Dayan Viciedo OF CHW 226 206.44 -8.65%
Brandon McCarthy SP ARI 227 281.95 24.21%
Casey Janssen RP TOR 228 190.74 -16.34%
Brandon Moss 1B OAK 229 278.42 21.58%
Wade Miley SP ARI 230 222.82 -3.12%
Ichiro Suzuki OF NYY 231 174.36 -24.52%
Mark Reynolds 1B CLE 232 295.02 27.16%
J.J. Hardy SS BAL 233 220.02 -5.57%
Carlos Ruiz C PHI 234 202.67 -13.39%
Julio Teheran SP ATL 235 319.13 35.80%
Alex Avila C DET 236 226.36 -4.08%
Jeremy Hellickson SP TB 237 208.61 -11.98%
Leonys Martin OF TEX 238 316.86 33.13%
Jean Segura SS MIL 239 240.26 0.53%
Edwin Jackson SP CHC 240 276.13 15.05%

Rising Up

Domonic Brown, OF PHI (+43.44%) – When you’re having the type of spring that Brown is currently having, it’s easy to see why he’s climbing over 100 spots on the ADP rankings. With a .354 average, seven home runs and 16 RBI, Brown is finally delivering on the potential fantasy owners have been waiting on for a few seasons now. Though technically no official word has been given, it’s pretty safe to assume that he’s earned himself the starting left field job in Philly and is potentially a very worthwhile pick in fantasy leagues.

Julio Teheran, SP ATL (+35.80%) – While the Braves picked up offense through free agency this past winter, they continue to use their home-grown young pitchers to round out their rotation. Teheran has been on the radar for a couple of seasons now and with him sporting a 1.04 ERA with 35 strikeouts over 26 innings it would appear that he is finally ready. Obviously you can’t fully buy into spring numbers but with how well he is pitching this late in the spring when most lineups are emulating Opening Day lineups, you have to be confident in his arm.

Leonys Martin, OF TEX (+33.13%) – He was supposedly manager Ron Washington’s first choice for the Rangers center field job, but we all know that the team was more than just a little interested in bringing in Michael Bourn. When that didn’t happen, it was just a matter of Martin outplaying Craig Gentry which was not really a tall order. You’re not looking at a whole lot of power or any major speed, but if you’re trying to round out your team with everyday guys who will find a way to contribute, then Martin deserves a look.

Other notable risers includeHisashi Iwakuma, Alex Cobb, and Bobby Parnell
Falling Down

Jake Peavy, SP CHW (-39.91%) – Obviously you’re going to continue seeing starting pitchers taken much lower than some of their ADP rankings as many who participate in these drafts opt to wait on starting pitching. We saw it in the earlier rounds, so watching a guy like Peavy, who most people think overachieved last season anyway, fall in drafts is not unexpected.

Josh Rutledge, SS COL (-31.27%) – Ever since the Rockies have discussed the possibility of starting Nolan Arenado at third base, Rutledge has begun to slip in drafts after being considered a top sleeper for most of the early offseason. Should Arendao win the job, then Chris Nelson and Jordan Pacheco work as utility infielders and given their abilities, a slow start by Rutledge could open the door for one of them. The leash won’t be too short, but it is easy to see a lot of match-up playing happening if things don’t open as strong as the team hopes.

Ichiro Suzuki, OF NYY (-24.52%) – There are likely a few reasons that Ichiro dropped as he did in this draft starting with the fact that his overall skills are in an obvious decline. But add that to the fact that steals have become much more plentiful and the Yankees lineup continues to take a beating, he’s becoming a lot more average than he is extraordinary. He’s still going to be a good source of runs scored and speed, but there’s little reason to rush out and grab him.

Other notable fallers: Tim Lincecum, Howard Kendrick, Alcides Escobar

Rounds 20-23

Player Pos Team Drafted NFBC ADP % Diff
Matt Garza SP CHC 271 232.38 -14.25%
Nolan Arenado 3B COL 272 409.18 50.43%
Andy Pettitte SP NYY 273 305.54 11.92%
Trevor Bauer SP CLE 274 313.33 14.35%
Scott Baker SP CHC 275 407.46 48.17%
Rick Porcello SP DET 276 440.62 59.64%
Shaun Marcum SP NYM 277 276.72 -0.10%
Ryan Madson RP LAA 278 254.63 -8.41%
Chad Billingsley SP LAD 279 358.28 28.42%
Aaron Hicks OF MIN 280 356.06 27.16%
Andrew Cashner RP SD 281 311.65 10.91%
Jose Veras RP HOU 282 304.04 7.82%
Robert Brantley C MIA 283 315.10 11.34%
Michael Brantley OF CLE 284 302.86 6.64%
Hyun-Jin Ryu SP LAD 285 269.65 -5.39%
Yonder Alonso 1B SD 286 265.26 -7.25%
Adam Lind 1B TOR 287 305.48 6.44%
Tyler Flowers C CHW 288 321.42 11.60%
Chris Iannetta C LAA 289 300.46 3.97%
Billy Hamilton SS CIN 290 288.01 -0.69%
Drew Smyly SP DET 291 343.83 18.15%
A.J. Ellis C LAD 292 289.00 -1.03%
Rajai Davis OF TOR 293 309.99 5.80%
Kelly Johnson 2B TB 294 316.22 7.56%
Bud Norris SP HOU 295 338.87 14.87%
Hiroyuki Nakajima SS OAK 296 333.20 12.57%
Wei-Yin Chen SP BAL 297 316.94 6.71%
Mitch Moreland 1B TEX 298 318.61 6.92%
Peter Bourjos OF LAA 299 298.24 -0.25%
Ricky Romero SP TOR 300 328.66 9.55%
Wade Davis RP KC 301 330.22 9.71%
James McDonald SP PIT 302 314.80 4.24%
Eduardo Nunez 3B NYY 303 358.35 18.27%
Ross Detwiler SP WAS 304 349.77 15.06%
Stephen Drew SS BOS 305 300.01 -1.64%
Joe Blanton SP LAA 306 386.04 26.16%
Jhonny Peralta SS DET 307 306.04 -0.31%
Brian Matusz RP BAL 308 619.95 101.28%
Clay Buchholz SP BOS 309 298.96 -3.25%
Chris Tillman SP BAL 310 315.80 1.87%
Kurt Suzuki C WAS 311 359.55 15.61%
Oscar Taveras OF STL 312 303.11 -2.85%
Gordon Beckham 2B CHW 313 306.73 -2.00%
Dylan Buundy SP BAL 314 343.57 9.42%
Jason Hammel SP BAL 315 279.61 -11.23%
Chris Nelson 3B COL 316 326.92 3.46%
Matt Adams 1B STL 317 491.60 55.08%
Zach McAllister SP CLE 318 468.11 47.20%
Jason Vargas SP LAA 319 309.87 -2.86%
Carlos Marmol RP CHC 320 242.43 -24.24%
Tyler Colvin 1B COL 321 270.25 -15.81%
Jon Jay OF STL 322 278.31 -13.57%
Jason Castro C HOU 323 338.49 4.80%
Daniel Murphy 2B NYM 324 271.27 -16.27%
Joaquin Benoit RP DET 325 381.71 17.45%
Tyler Greene SS HOU 326 405.01 24.24%
Justin Maxwell OF HOU 327 316.15 -3.32%
Kelvin Herrera RP KC 328 427.12 30.22%
A.J. Griffin SP OAK 329 290.25 -11.78%
Ervin Santana SP KC 330 380.72 15.37%

Welcome to the Party

Nolan Arenado, 3B COL (+50.43) – As already stated above, Arenado is now very much in the mix for the starting third base job. Despite his struggles at Double-A last year, it’s hard to ignore his .319 average with four home runs and 12 RBI, especially when his primary competitors for the job are struggling at the dish.

Kelvin Herrera, RP KC (+30.32%) – It’s not just this draft, but others as well, where we’ve seen Herrera go with a late-round pick. Royals closer Greg Holland is struggling this spring and has seen a decrease in velocity. So while Holland is still going in his normal spot in most drafts, owners are hedging their bets with late pick-up of Herrera, the handcuff.

Aaron Hicks, OF MIN (+27.16%) – He was just announced as the Twins starting center fielder, and while this draft took place before the announcement, the handwriting was already on the wall. The speedy 23-year old is likely to be the Twins leadoff hitter which gives him even more value as the uptick we’ll see in his projected stolen bases and runs scored should be significant.

The Forgotten

Carlos Marmol, RP CHC (-24.24%) – You won’t find anyone from this draft to thinking that Marmol will hold the closer’s job all year, and you probably won’t find anyone outside of this draft thinking that way either. He’s fine to pick up late in your draft so long as you also grab Kyuji Fujikawa so you technically have the closer for the Cubs. But Marmol should be rendered useless in fantasy leagues once he loses the job.

The other drops you see here really aren’t significant enough to be concerned. For a lot of these players it’s about personal preference of how you want to round out your bench. Some have full-time jobs but just aren’t productive in the fantasy realm while others are strictly part-timers whose future depends on the health and talents of others.  Sift through and find some that you like, but unless you read a report that assures you of both full-time at-bats and increased productivity, then you can relax on them.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

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