More ADP Analysis From the Mock Draft Army -- Part 2
It’s time to take a look at the rest of the most recent Mock Draft Army ADP taken from a draft done in the middle of last week. There have actually been a few changes since this draft was completed, such as Vernon Wells becoming a Yankee, Kyle Lohse signing with the Brewers, Pablo Sandoval’s, elbow issue, David Freese’s back, Scott Kazmir and Shelby Miller winning the fifth starter’s spot on their respective team, just to name a few. As we move here into the final week of spring training, we’ll probably see a number of changes that could skew the overall ADP, but as I’ve said before, ADP is a guideline, not the gospel. So for what it’s worth, let’s take a look at the second half of the draft we began the other day.
For a look at the last article which covered the ADP from the first half of the draft, click here.
Again, to go through the entire draft would be a bit of overkill so we’re taking cross-sections. In today’s piece, we will be looking at the ADP from Rounds 13-16 and Rounds 20-23. That will cover a few rounds in the middle where we start to see some of the sleepers rise up and the back-end of the draft where we can dig up some real nice hidden gems who may have the potential to surprise and earn a great value.
|Player||Pos||Team||Drafted||NFBC ADP||% Diff|
Domonic Brown, OF PHI (+43.44%) – When you’re having the type of spring that Brown is currently having, it’s easy to see why he’s climbing over 100 spots on the ADP rankings. With a .354 average, seven home runs and 16 RBI, Brown is finally delivering on the potential fantasy owners have been waiting on for a few seasons now. Though technically no official word has been given, it’s pretty safe to assume that he’s earned himself the starting left field job in Philly and is potentially a very worthwhile pick in fantasy leagues.
Julio Teheran, SP ATL (+35.80%) – While the Braves picked up offense through free agency this past winter, they continue to use their home-grown young pitchers to round out their rotation. Teheran has been on the radar for a couple of seasons now and with him sporting a 1.04 ERA with 35 strikeouts over 26 innings it would appear that he is finally ready. Obviously you can’t fully buy into spring numbers but with how well he is pitching this late in the spring when most lineups are emulating Opening Day lineups, you have to be confident in his arm.
Leonys Martin, OF TEX (+33.13%) – He was supposedly manager Ron Washington’s first choice for the Rangers center field job, but we all know that the team was more than just a little interested in bringing in Michael Bourn. When that didn’t happen, it was just a matter of Martin outplaying Craig Gentry which was not really a tall order. You’re not looking at a whole lot of power or any major speed, but if you’re trying to round out your team with everyday guys who will find a way to contribute, then Martin deserves a look.
Jake Peavy, SP CHW (-39.91%) – Obviously you’re going to continue seeing starting pitchers taken much lower than some of their ADP rankings as many who participate in these drafts opt to wait on starting pitching. We saw it in the earlier rounds, so watching a guy like Peavy, who most people think overachieved last season anyway, fall in drafts is not unexpected.
Josh Rutledge, SS COL (-31.27%) – Ever since the Rockies have discussed the possibility of starting Nolan Arenado at third base, Rutledge has begun to slip in drafts after being considered a top sleeper for most of the early offseason. Should Arendao win the job, then Chris Nelson and Jordan Pacheco work as utility infielders and given their abilities, a slow start by Rutledge could open the door for one of them. The leash won’t be too short, but it is easy to see a lot of match-up playing happening if things don’t open as strong as the team hopes.
Ichiro Suzuki, OF NYY (-24.52%) – There are likely a few reasons that Ichiro dropped as he did in this draft starting with the fact that his overall skills are in an obvious decline. But add that to the fact that steals have become much more plentiful and the Yankees lineup continues to take a beating, he’s becoming a lot more average than he is extraordinary. He’s still going to be a good source of runs scored and speed, but there’s little reason to rush out and grab him.
|Player||Pos||Team||Drafted||NFBC ADP||% Diff|
Nolan Arenado, 3B COL (+50.43) – As already stated above, Arenado is now very much in the mix for the starting third base job. Despite his struggles at Double-A last year, it’s hard to ignore his .319 average with four home runs and 12 RBI, especially when his primary competitors for the job are struggling at the dish.
Kelvin Herrera, RP KC (+30.32%) – It’s not just this draft, but others as well, where we’ve seen Herrera go with a late-round pick. Royals closer Greg Holland is struggling this spring and has seen a decrease in velocity. So while Holland is still going in his normal spot in most drafts, owners are hedging their bets with late pick-up of Herrera, the handcuff.
Aaron Hicks, OF MIN (+27.16%) – He was just announced as the Twins starting center fielder, and while this draft took place before the announcement, the handwriting was already on the wall. The speedy 23-year old is likely to be the Twins leadoff hitter which gives him even more value as the uptick we’ll see in his projected stolen bases and runs scored should be significant.
Carlos Marmol, RP CHC (-24.24%) – You won’t find anyone from this draft to thinking that Marmol will hold the closer’s job all year, and you probably won’t find anyone outside of this draft thinking that way either. He’s fine to pick up late in your draft so long as you also grab Kyuji Fujikawa so you technically have the closer for the Cubs. But Marmol should be rendered useless in fantasy leagues once he loses the job.
The other drops you see here really aren’t significant enough to be concerned. For a lot of these players it’s about personal preference of how you want to round out your bench. Some have full-time jobs but just aren’t productive in the fantasy realm while others are strictly part-timers whose future depends on the health and talents of others. Sift through and find some that you like, but unless you read a report that assures you of both full-time at-bats and increased productivity, then you can relax on them.
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at firstname.lastname@example.org.