Mock Draft Army ADP -- Picks 51 - 100
For those of you just joining us, we’re continuing our comparative look at the ADP created by my Mock Draft Army versus that of the NFBC. Examining the two side by side offers an interesting comparison as the NFBC data comes from the vast number of drafts, both real and mock, done by those dedicated, both spiritually and monetarily, to the game of fantasy baseball and the data from the Army, though pulled from a much smaller sample size, comes from the combined efforts of those who write about fantasy baseball professionally and those who play for the pure love of the game.
But there are a few key points to always remember as we study these numbers from now through the end of March, most of which we’ve discussed in past posts. The NFBC uses 15-team leagues and a no-trading policy which, as we’ve noted with starting pitchers and closers, changes the values of certain players/positions. The Army does a mix of 12 and 15-team leagues, but only drafts 23 rounds, not accounting for a bench. That also changes the values of some players, most notably, those final-round sleepers that we writers may wait on in real drafts, but want to expose more to the public when these drafts get published.
The important thing though is the consistency you are getting in these numbers. Both styles are two-catcher formats and both are for mixed, roto leagues. I cannot fully attest to the mocks run by the NFBC, but there is no auto-drafting in the Army , which is crucial to the process. Everyone who participates stays for the entire draft and the final pick is just as important as the first. But again, we’ve covered most of this already. It’s time to go over the rest of the Top 100 picks and look at some of the variances we are finding in the ADP numbers
|Mock Draft Army||NFBC|
|Josh Donaldson||3B||OAK||50.75||Elvis Andrus||SS||Tex||51.42|
|Hunter Pence||OF||SF||51.75||Matt Carpenter||2B||StL||53.11|
|Yoenis Cespedes||OF||OAK||52.25||Matt Holliday||LF||StL||53.54|
|Pedro Alvarez||3B||PIT||52.75||David Price||SP||TB||54.99|
|Jose Fernandez||SP||MIA||54.25||Allen Craig||1B||StL||55.23|
|Ryan Zimmerman||3B||WAS||55.25||Starling Marte||LF||Pit||55.61|
|Chris Sale||SP||CHW||56.25||Adrian Gonzalez||1B||LAD||56.75|
|Joe Mauer||C||MIN||57.50||Zack Greinke||SP||LAD||61.03|
|Elvis Andrus||SS||TEX||59.00||Aroldis Chapman||RP||Cin||61.06|
|Jason Heyward||OF||ATL||59.75||Ryan Zimmerman||3B||Was||61.83|
|Ian Kinsler||2B||DET||60.25||Joe Mauer||C||Min||63.15|
|Madison Bumgarner||SP||SF||61.25||Ian Kinsler||2B||Det||63.87|
|Justin Verlander||SP||DET||64.50||Cole Hamels||SP||Phi||64.06|
|Carlos Santana||C||CLE||64.75||Kenley Jansen||RP||LAD||64.76|
|Alex Gordon||OF||KC||66.75||Mark Trumbo||1B||Ari||65.14|
|Craig Kimbrel||RP||ATL||66.75||Carlos Santana||C||Cle||66.07|
|David Price||SP||TB||69.00||Wil Myers||RF||TB||66.46|
|Cole Hamels||SP||PHI||69.25||Wilin Rosario||C||Col||67.61|
|Zack Greinke||SP||LAD||69.75||Greg Holland||RP||KC||68.10|
|Yadier Molina||C||STL||72.00||Yoenis Cespedes||LF||Oak||68.14|
|David Ortiz||DH||BOS||72.50||Josh Donaldson||3B||Oak||69.80|
|Kyle Seager||3B||SEA||73.25||Yadier Molina||C||StL||71.93|
|Adrian Gonzalez||1B||LAD||73.50||Billy Hamilton||CF||Cin||72.63|
|Ben Zobrist||2B||TB||76.50||Jason Heyward||RF||Atl||78.03|
|Billy Hamilton||OF||CIN||76.50||Anibal Sanchez||SP||Det||79.18|
|Wilin Rosario||C||COL||78.25||Brian McCann||C||NYY||79.48|
|Mike Minor||SP||ATL||81.50||Josh Hamilton||RF||LAA||79.54|
|Anthony Rizzo||1B||CHC||81.75||Ben Zobrist||2B||TB||80.08|
|Aroldis Chapman||RP||CIN||81.75||Pedro Alvarez||3B||Pit||81.73|
|Brian McCann||C||NYY||84.25||Everth Cabrera||SS||SD||82.41|
|Kenley Jansen||RP||LAD||86.25||David Ortiz||DH||Bos||82.89|
|Jose Altuve||2B||HOU||87.00||Trevor Rosenthal||RP||StL||83.04|
|Jayson Werth||OF||WAS||87.50||Jonathan Lucroy||C||Mil||83.72|
|Jonathan Lucroy||C||MIL||89.00||Salvador Perez||C||KC||85.46|
|Jedd Gyorko||2B||SD||90.00||Jordan Zimmermann||SP||Was||88.69|
|Carlos Beltran||OF||NYY||90.25||Jose Altuve||2B||Hou||90.54|
|Manny Machado||3B||BAL||90.25||Koji Uehara||RP||Bos||91.07|
|Anibal Sanchez||SP||DET||90.50||Michael Wacha||SP||StL||91.63|
|Greg Holland||RP||KC||91.00||Hisashi Iwakuma||SP||Sea||91.87|
|Everth Cabrera||SS||SD||91.75||Joe Nathan||RP||Det||93.51|
|Desmond Jennings||OF||TB||92.50||Gerrit Cole||SP||Pit||93.82|
|Josh Hamilton||OF||LAA||94.25||Alex Gordon||LF||KC||95.31|
|Mat Latos||SP||CIN||97.00||Jayson Werth||RF||Was||95.39|
|Brett Lawrie||3B||TOR||98.25||Carlos Beltran||RF||NYY||96.96|
|Gio Gonzalez||SP||WAS||98.50||James Shields||SP||KC||97.54|
|Matt Cain||SP||SF||99.75||Gio Gonzalez||SP||Was||98.61|
|Trevor Rosenthal||RP||STL||101.25||Matt Wieters||C||Bal||98.65|
|Hisashi Iwakuma||SP||SEA||101.50||Jedd Gyorko||2B||SD||100.31|
|Jose Abreu||1B||CHW||103.75||Jose Abreu||1B||CWS||101.31|
|Domonic Brown||OF||PHI||104.75||Brandon Phillips||2B||Cin||101.44|
Again, we’re not looking for variances of just a few picks. More often than not, that tends to be a personal preference. What we’re looking for a major risers or fallers and to see if there’s some sort of explanation for the variance that we can find.
For example, Mark Trumbo was in the Top-50 of the Army with an ADP of 47.75, but sits down here in the NFBC data at 65.14, a difference of 17.39, or roughly a round and a half depending on the size of your league. I would take full responsibility for Trumbo’s rise in the Army ADP, as I am a big proponent of him and his move to Arizona, but others have also sought him out in the late fourth/early fifth round as well. Perhaps those in the NFBC are a bit gun shy because of his batting average or maybe they don’t expect the increase in power numbers that I anticipate. Whatever the case may be, those allowing him to fall are going to regret it when he finishes the year leading the league in home runs.
St. Louis Cardinals second baseman (soon to be regular third baseman) Matt Carpenter is another guy who seems to be much more popular with the Army than with the NFBC folk. There seems to be more weight put on his position flexibility as well as a stronger belief in a repeat of a strong batting average and an excessive number of runs scored. But can he really register 120-plus runs scored again this year? Losing Carlos Beltran from the lineup may have a significant impact on that. There’s also the question of last season’s .359 BABIP and how much impact that had on his batting average. However, that argument should be put to rest simply by looking at his strong contact rate, his improved plate discipline and his track record throughout the minors. Sure his line drive rate spiked, but his GB/FB remained relatively unchanged and there’s little reason to believe that he can’t be an on-base machine once again. Maybe the numbers regress a bit, but certainly not enough to dismiss his 2013 season as fluke.
There is plenty of NFBC love being shown for Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez who has an ADP of 56.75 which is 16.75 picks (just over a full round) ahead of where he’s being taken in Army drafts. That could be a matter of sample size as A-Gone has gone a bit higher in the most recent Army drafts than he did in the first couple of them. It’s probably due to the misconception that first base remains a deep position which, if you’ve participated in a number of mocks, you know it’s not the case. There might be a good number of first basemen out there, but the talent level after the top 10 drops significantly. If you miss out on one, picking up the pieces afterwards can become a daunting task in your draft, particularly if everyone else is also vying for a corner infielder as well.
In both cases, we see a fairly strong catcher run at this juncture of the draft starting roughly around the 60th pick. Eight catchers come off the board in the NFBC while six come off in the Army drafts. It’s definitely understandable given the fact that they are all two-catcher leagues, but the depth at the position is certainly stronger than most, so I’ll side with the fewer catcher picks in the Army ADP and happily wait should the top five come off the board quickly.
We also see our first closer run of the draft here as the top five closers come off the board in the Army drafts while in the NFBC, Craig Kimbrel was taken in the top-50 but here, another six more relievers come off the board. But unlike the catcher run, I firmly believe you need to jump in early with regard to the closers. Some people don’t mind fishing for saves all year and going with suspect closers, but I am simply not a fan…especially if you like to wait on starting pitching.
And finally, you’ll notice that the latest Cuban sensation, Jose Abreu comes off the board right at the end of the top-100. If you’re all-in on him, like I and a number of pundits am, then keep in mind that his ADP is rising fast. He’s a mid to late sixth-round pick here and I am in the midst of a slow draft right now and he went with the first pick of the sixth round. I opted for Anthony Rizzo two picks before – both have similar power potential, but Rizzo has more experience and the White Sox still have Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn in town – but I was going to snag him for my corner infield slot on the way back had he not been sniped from my draft queue.