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Mock Draft Army ADP -- Picks 51 - 100

For those of you just joining us, we’re continuing our comparative look at the ADP created by my Mock Draft Army versus that of the NFBC. Examining the two side by side offers an interesting comparison as the NFBC data comes from the vast number of drafts, both real and mock, done by those dedicated, both spiritually and monetarily, to the game of fantasy baseball and the data from the Army, though pulled from a much smaller sample size, comes from the combined efforts of those who write about fantasy baseball professionally and those who play for the pure love of the game.

But there are a few key points to always remember as we study these numbers from now through the end of March, most of which we’ve discussed in past posts. The NFBC uses 15-team leagues and a no-trading policy which, as we’ve noted with starting pitchers and closers, changes the values of certain players/positions. The Army does a mix of 12 and 15-team leagues, but only drafts 23 rounds, not accounting for a bench. That also changes the values of some players, most notably, those final-round sleepers that we writers may wait on in real drafts, but want to expose more to the public when these drafts get published.

The important thing though is the consistency you are getting in these numbers. Both styles are two-catcher formats and both are for mixed, roto leagues. I cannot fully attest to the mocks run by the NFBC, but there is no auto-drafting in the Army , which is crucial to the process. Everyone who participates stays for the entire draft and the final pick is just as important as the first. But again, we’ve covered most of this already. It’s time to go over the rest of the Top 100 picks and look at some of the variances we are finding in the ADP numbers

For a look at the Top 50, click here.


Mock Draft Army ADP vs NFBC ADP – Picks 51 – 100

Mock Draft Army         NFBC      
                 
Player Pos. Team ADP   Player Pos. Team ADP
Josh Donaldson 3B OAK 50.75   Elvis Andrus SS Tex 51.42
Hunter Pence OF SF 51.75   Matt Carpenter 2B StL 53.11
Yoenis Cespedes OF OAK 52.25   Matt Holliday LF StL 53.54
Pedro Alvarez 3B PIT 52.75   David Price SP TB 54.99
Jose Fernandez SP MIA 54.25   Allen Craig 1B StL 55.23
Ryan Zimmerman 3B WAS 55.25   Starling Marte LF Pit 55.61
Chris Sale SP CHW 56.25   Adrian Gonzalez 1B LAD 56.75
Joe Mauer C MIN 57.50   Zack Greinke SP LAD 61.03
Elvis Andrus SS TEX 59.00   Aroldis Chapman RP Cin 61.06
Jason Heyward OF ATL 59.75   Ryan Zimmerman 3B Was 61.83
Ian Kinsler 2B DET 60.25   Joe Mauer C Min 63.15
Madison Bumgarner SP SF 61.25   Ian Kinsler 2B Det 63.87
Justin Verlander SP DET 64.50   Cole Hamels SP Phi 64.06
Carlos Santana C CLE 64.75   Kenley Jansen RP LAD 64.76
Alex Gordon OF KC 66.75   Mark Trumbo 1B Ari 65.14
Craig Kimbrel RP ATL 66.75   Carlos Santana C Cle 66.07
David Price SP TB 69.00   Wil Myers RF TB 66.46
Cole Hamels SP PHI 69.25   Wilin Rosario C Col 67.61
Zack Greinke SP LAD 69.75   Greg Holland RP KC 68.10
Yadier Molina C STL 72.00   Yoenis Cespedes LF Oak 68.14
David Ortiz DH BOS 72.50   Josh Donaldson 3B Oak 69.80
Kyle Seager 3B SEA 73.25   Yadier Molina C StL 71.93
Adrian Gonzalez 1B LAD 73.50   Billy Hamilton CF Cin 72.63
Ben Zobrist 2B TB 76.50   Jason Heyward RF Atl 78.03
Billy Hamilton OF CIN 76.50   Anibal Sanchez SP Det 79.18
Wilin Rosario C COL 78.25   Brian McCann C NYY 79.48
Mike Minor SP ATL 81.50   Josh Hamilton RF LAA 79.54
Anthony Rizzo 1B CHC 81.75   Ben Zobrist 2B TB 80.08
Aroldis Chapman RP CIN 81.75   Pedro Alvarez 3B Pit 81.73
Brian McCann C NYY 84.25   Everth Cabrera SS SD 82.41
Kenley Jansen RP LAD 86.25   David Ortiz DH Bos 82.89
Jose Altuve 2B HOU 87.00   Trevor Rosenthal RP StL 83.04
Jayson Werth OF WAS 87.50   Jonathan Lucroy C Mil 83.72
Jonathan Lucroy C MIL 89.00   Salvador Perez C KC 85.46
Jedd Gyorko 2B SD 90.00   Jordan Zimmermann SP Was 88.69
Carlos Beltran OF NYY 90.25   Jose Altuve 2B Hou 90.54
Manny Machado 3B BAL 90.25   Koji Uehara RP Bos 91.07
Anibal Sanchez SP DET 90.50   Michael Wacha SP StL 91.63
Greg Holland RP KC 91.00   Hisashi Iwakuma SP Sea 91.87
Everth Cabrera SS SD 91.75   Joe Nathan RP Det 93.51
Desmond Jennings OF TB 92.50   Gerrit Cole SP Pit 93.82
Josh Hamilton OF LAA 94.25   Alex Gordon LF KC 95.31
Mat Latos SP CIN 97.00   Jayson Werth RF Was 95.39
Brett Lawrie 3B TOR 98.25   Carlos Beltran RF NYY 96.96
Gio Gonzalez SP WAS 98.50   James Shields SP KC 97.54
Matt Cain SP SF 99.75   Gio Gonzalez SP Was 98.61
Trevor Rosenthal RP STL 101.25   Matt Wieters C Bal 98.65
Hisashi Iwakuma SP SEA 101.50   Jedd Gyorko 2B SD 100.31
Jose Abreu 1B CHW 103.75   Jose Abreu 1B CWS 101.31
Domonic Brown OF PHI 104.75   Brandon Phillips 2B Cin 101.44

Again, we’re not looking for variances of just a few picks. More often than not, that tends to be a personal preference. What we’re looking for a major risers or fallers and to see if there’s some sort of explanation for the variance that we can find.

For example, Mark Trumbo was in the Top-50 of the Army with an ADP of 47.75, but sits down here in the NFBC data at 65.14, a difference of 17.39, or roughly a round and a half depending on the size of your league. I would take full responsibility for Trumbo’s rise in the Army ADP, as I am a big proponent of him and his move to Arizona, but others have also sought him out in the late fourth/early fifth round as well. Perhaps those in the NFBC are a bit gun shy because of his batting average or maybe they don’t expect the increase in power numbers that I anticipate. Whatever the case may be, those allowing him to fall are going to regret it when he finishes the year leading the league in home runs.

St. Louis Cardinals second baseman (soon to be regular third baseman) Matt Carpenter is another guy who seems to be much more popular with the Army than with the NFBC folk. There seems to be more weight put on his position flexibility as well as a stronger belief in a repeat of a strong batting average and an excessive number of runs scored. But can he really register 120-plus runs scored again this year? Losing Carlos Beltran from the lineup may have a significant impact on that. There’s also the question of last season’s .359 BABIP and how much impact that had on his batting average. However, that argument should be put to rest simply by looking at his strong contact rate, his improved plate discipline and his track record throughout the minors. Sure his line drive rate spiked, but his GB/FB remained relatively unchanged and there’s little reason to believe that he can’t be an on-base machine once again. Maybe the numbers regress a bit, but certainly not enough to dismiss his 2013 season as fluke.

There is plenty of NFBC love being shown for Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez who has an ADP of 56.75 which is 16.75 picks (just over a full round) ahead of where he’s being taken in Army drafts. That could be a matter of sample size as A-Gone has gone a bit higher in the most recent Army drafts than he did in the first couple of them. It’s probably due to the misconception that first base remains a deep position which, if you’ve participated in a number of mocks, you know it’s not the case. There might be a good number of first basemen out there, but the talent level after the top 10 drops significantly. If you miss out on one, picking up the pieces afterwards can become a daunting task in your draft, particularly if everyone else is also vying for a corner infielder as well.

In both cases, we see a fairly strong catcher run at this juncture of the draft starting roughly around the 60th pick. Eight catchers come off the board in the NFBC while six come off in the Army drafts. It’s definitely understandable given the fact that they are all two-catcher leagues, but the depth at the position is certainly stronger than most, so I’ll side with the fewer catcher picks in the Army ADP and happily wait should the top five come off the board quickly.

We also see our first closer run of the draft here as the top five closers come off the board in the Army drafts while in the NFBC, Craig Kimbrel was taken in the top-50 but here, another six more relievers come off the board. But unlike the catcher run, I firmly believe you need to jump in early with regard to the closers. Some people don’t mind fishing for saves all year and going with suspect closers, but I am simply not a fan…especially if you like to wait on starting pitching.

And finally, you’ll notice that the latest Cuban sensation, Jose Abreu comes off the board right at the end of the top-100. If you’re all-in on him, like I and a number of pundits am, then keep in mind that his ADP is rising fast. He’s a mid to late sixth-round pick here and I am in the midst of a slow draft right now and he went with the first pick of the sixth round. I opted for Anthony Rizzo two picks before – both have similar power potential, but Rizzo has more experience and the White Sox still have Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn in town – but I was going to snag him for my corner infield slot on the way back had he not been sniped from my draft queue.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for nearly two decades on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him directly at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com

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