MLB Thoughts and Observations

• By: Chris Liss
• On: 6/30/2009 1:24:00 PM

Related: Chris Liss 


• View Comments : 11

I haven't heard a lot of talk about Nate Schierholz - surprising especially from DDD who's a Giants fan. Schierholz isn't a super prospect, but he posted an OPS of well over .900 for two years in a row at Triple-A and is still just 25. He'll run a bit, hit for average and a little pop. He won't take a walk, but that's not a bad thing in fantasy, especially since his contact rate isn't a problem. Got him in the RotoWire Staff 18-team keeper league a couple weeks ago for $1 - which shows how forgotten he'd been. I'd suggest picking up players like James McDonald, Matt LaPorta, Chase Headley and Clay Buchholz - even in deeper one-year mixed leagues because you never know when one will break out, and you want to be there before it happens.

Clayton Kershaw hasn't entirely turned the corner yet, but given his strikeout rate, home park and division, his downside is limited, and his upside is not - even this year. Even if he doesn't get better, Kershaw's peripherals stack up to teammate Chad Billingsley's.

While winning a shallow league is all about your superstars and breakouts, winning a deep one requires unsung heroes - players you bought on the cheap who make significant contributions. Two huge players in my 17-team Tout league are Miguel Olivo (12 HR, 2 SB, .262 average from a second catcher) and Scott Rolen (41 runs, 4 SB, .332 average). Players like that are huge difference makers in deep leagues, and it's hard not to appreciate them more than the Hanley Ramirez and Mariano Rivera types who are merely doing their jobs.

Apropos of nothing, I have to mention the greatest awards acceptance speech ever. It's from a few months ago, but I watched it again last night, and am more confident than ever it won't be surpassed. If only it had happened at the Oscars...

After Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez, who goes third if we were to draft tomorrow? I'd probably take Tim Lincecum who's pitching better this year than last now that he's improved his command. It's funny because Lincecum was available at No. 20 in my home league, but I passed on him. Luckily, I got Carl Crawford who's nearly as valuable in a league with only four pitching categories (no WHIP). B.J. Upton and Crawford both deserve serious consideration in the top five, too along with Joe Mauer, Miguel Cabrera, ARod and a few others. But I think Pujols, Ramirez, Lincecum are the clear top three right now.

We currently have Matt Forte ranked No. 3 overall, but between a minor hamstring injury this spring, his 3.9 yard per carry average and his lack of a multiyear track record, I'm not all that comfortable taking him in that spot. I'd strongly consider taking Larry Fitzgerald instead, particularly in a 2-RB, 3-WR league. Even Maurice Jones-Drew, who everyone loves, is risky as he's never had even 200 carries in a season. I can see a good case for taking Fitzgerald at No 2.

Most of you have probably seen this before, but this guy still cracks me up.

Where do you draft Dirk Nowitzki next season now that his former fiancee has been jailed?. Does he fall into a depression or take it out on the rest of the league? I'm banking on the latter. Seriously, though, you have to feel bad for the guy as it's bad enough to find out something like that without it being public knowledge. (I've never had an ex-girlfriend jailed, but I've been with some that should have been - and may well be by now).

Thanks to an unlucky strand rate and a regression to the mean on BABIP, Gavin Floyd's ERA is higher this year than last, but he's bumped his strikeout rate and ground ball rate, and is allowing far fewer home runs. It's always odd when a smoke and mirrors success, instead coming down to earth, takes a skill leap. Might the same thing happen with Luke Hochevar or Rick Porcello, both of whom have very modest peripherals. Can some short-term luck-based success lead to greater confidence and eventually skill growth in young pitching prospects with good raw stuff?

Finally, I made this post on trade etiquette a month ago, and while it got some comments, it apparently has not changed the hearts and minds of those in my leagues. Few in my home league will ever make a counter offer, and many just ignore offers indefinitely to the point where I have to withdraw them for fear of forgetting about them and having them accepted later after the values have changed. I think in my home league some of the guys are worried that I have some inside info they lack (not true, and if it were, I'd disclose it), but expert leaguers have no such excuse.