ROTOWIRE.COM NFL MLB / Minors NBA NHL GOLF RACING    COMMUNITY FORUMS PODCASTS MYROTOWIRE ASK AN EXPERT GAMES

Live Blogging: NL-Only Experts Auction

It's a good field of 12 owners: both myself and Jeff Erickson are repping Rotowire (we have two entries in the league), while Marc Normandin hoists the Baseball Prospectus banner. Other notables include Charlie Wiegert and Mike Kuchera.

I've got a few players I'm semi-targeting, but for the most part I'm going to try and be as agnostic as possible. If a player seems to be going for below market value I'll move on him, regardless of how I feel about him (with, again, a few exceptions that I won't list right at this time).

The trick will then be to determine as quickly as possible which way the market is skewing, and react accordingly. Are closers overvalued? Solid bats at premium positions like C and SS undervalued? Etc etc.

Comments

By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:07:00 AM		 Looks like Derek VanRiper is running the other RotoWire team, not Jeff. Expect me to lampoon DVR's buys mercilessly.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:12:00 AM		 First buy of the auction is... Roy Halladay, for $34, to me. Was fighting with Normandin over him. That's $8 lower than the value I had down for him... be interesting to see what Timmy goes for now.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:13:00 AM		 I tossed out Adrian Gonzalez as the second name, and he went for $34 as well. Him I didn't want anything to do with - we don't get to keep stats for guys traded to the AL in this league.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:15:00 AM		 Next few buys: Reynolds $33, Rollins $30, Pujols $50
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:17:00 AM		 DVR on the board with Holliday for $35. The fool! Actually that seems about the right price... can't diss that one too much. Hanley then tops Albert by going for $51.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:20:00 AM		 First wild card name gets tossed out: Mat Latos. He ends up going for $9, which seems a bit much.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:23:00 AM		 Strasburg goes for $10... heh.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:24:00 AM		 So far hitting prices are about where I thought they'd be for the big names. We haven't had enough big pitching names go (in fact, Halladay's the only one so far) for me to really judge.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:25:00 AM		 First overpriced player, IMO: Jason Bay at $33.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:27:00 AM		 DVR takes Risky Weeks for $18. Eep.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:30:00 AM		 Yup, no one wants to spend for pitching... just got Lincecum for $37. Meanwhile, Skip Schumaker is going for $13.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:31:00 AM		 Landed Matt Kemp at $41, $4 less than my projection and $2 less than Ryan Howard. I'll take it.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:34:00 AM		 Nabbed Votto at about projected value ($34).
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:35:00 AM		 Aroldis Chapman goes for $3
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:38:00 AM		 Starting pitching is still undervalued by my estimations - Carpenter goes for $27. Broxton goes for the same price though, so the closer market isn't affected.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:42:00 AM		 Hitting prices keep rising - Ryan Zimmerman (who I wanted) goes for $31, while Sandoval goes for $33.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:44:00 AM		 Ryan Franklin for $20??? Really? That's crazy.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:46:00 AM		 Pitching prices are starting to normalize - Haren goes for $33. I like my two aces better already.
 
By: Chris Liss
On: 2/9/2010 10:47:00 AM		 How many teams in the league - NL only, I assume? You might want to put that at the top. Otherwise, it's hard to discern what the values mean.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:52:00 AM		 Wainwright and Josh Johnson (to DVR) both go for $27, as people start to scramble for starting pitching. I love it when an impromptu plan comes together.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:53:00 AM		 Oops - thanks, Liss.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 10:58:00 AM		 We're heading towards pick #50, and the market's getting overheated. Ethier just went for $30, and Dunn for $27. I'm laying low right now.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 11:02:00 AM		 First catcher: Brian McCann, $25.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 11:07:00 AM		 Hitting prices are coming back down - Brandon Phillips goes for just over projection at $26, and Carlos Lee goes for $28. Could be some bargains coming up in another 10-15 picks or so.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 11:09:00 AM		 Most teams's budgets have settled into the low $100s (I'm at $114 right now) but two teams - Wiegert's, and Mike Gianella repping Patton & Co - still have over $220. Neither seem inclined to bully the table though at this point.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 11:10:00 AM		 Worst buy of the auction so far just happened: Dan Uggla at $26. That's a lot to pay for a guy who will hurt your batting average, assuming he even sticks in the NL all season.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 11:17:00 AM		 Travor Hoffman just went for more money ($19) than Chad Billingsley ($18). Ah, saves. They drive otherwise rational people CRAZY.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 11:18:00 AM		 ...and Brandon Webb tops them both at $20. Interesting. Not much of an injury discount there.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 11:25:00 AM		 Tried to pilfer Aramis Ramirez by opening the bidding at $21... no dice. He ended up going to Wiegert for $26 (which is what I had as his projected value).
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 11:28:00 AM		 Finally made a buy - McLouth at $19, which was a slight bargain IMO.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 11:31:00 AM		 Ted Lilly goes for $15, with Wandy, Jimenez and Hamels still out there. Madness.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 11:33:00 AM		 Carlos Beltran goes for $19. Way more than I'd be willing to pay.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 11:37:00 AM		 Some interesting little buys from earlier in the auction: David Freese, $7; Ian Desmond, $4
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 11:48:00 AM		 McCutcheon ($25), Derrek Lee ($27) and Chipper ($14) all go for $4 below my projections. Meanwhile, Bourn ($21), Stubbs ($13) and Everth Cabrera ($17) all go higher than projections. Steals are still at a premium, but prices are otherwise dropping.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 11:56:00 AM		 Heading into the break, only one team has more than $100 left (Wiegert at $114) and I'm tied for the second-biggest stack at $95. I only have five players though:

Kemp $41
Lincecum $37
Halladay $34
Votto $34
McLouth $19

so I have a lot of work to do. I've been holding off going after a few of the smaller bargains (McLouth was the only one) because I anticipate some nicer ones will be coming up. There really aren't any big names left, which could either cause a mini-surge in prices after the break as people snap up the biggest names left (Nolasco, Helton, guys like that), or it could result in a nice little bear market as people decide there's no one worth going to the wall for.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 12:00:00 PM		 On the flip side, here's DVR's team:

Yadier Molina $10
Nick Hundley $4
Risky Weeks $18
Matt Holliday $35
Justin Upton $35
Jayson Werth $29
Josh Johnson $27
Francisco Cordero $18

He's got $84 left. I like the outfield, but there's a LOT of risk in that portfolio, and he overpaid by a few bucks on guys who aren't likely to make a difference, especially his catchers. I don't see $14 worth of production there, not even close. He'll also have to make some shrewd starting pitching buys behind Johnson to have a decent staff.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 12:05:00 PM		 The bulls have it coming out of the break. Scott Hairston goes for $7, and Jorge De La Rosa for $11.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 12:08:00 PM		 Octavio Dotel, $10. So much for that cheap saves idea.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 12:13:00 PM		 Bought DeRosa for $15. Not thrilled with it, but that's $5 below projection.
 
By: Scott Pianowski
On: 2/9/2010 12:14:00 PM		 That looks like market for Yadier Molina. What did you have him earning the last two years (or how do you project him this year)? He's no star, but I think in a lot of circles, he's underrated.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 12:15:00 PM		 Fernando Martinez goes for $4. No, this isn't a keeper league.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 12:17:00 PM		 I had Yadier at $7, but I tend not to put as much stock in position scarcity as most people.
 
By: Scott Pianowski
On: 2/9/2010 12:20:00 PM		 I'll bet anything Yadier Molina earns more than $7 in an NL-only two-catcher format if he plays the full season, not that he's likely to go ballistic or anything. I haven't seen anyone as bearish on him as you (BBHQ has 13, Index has 12, I submitted 9 for the Yahoo mag, Gene McCaffrey has 10), but maybe you'll be the guy who's right.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 12:20:00 PM		 Buster Posey also goes for $4.
 
By: million_dollar_sleeper
On: 2/9/2010 12:22:00 PM		 Ethier for $30 looks expensive
 
By: Scott Pianowski
On: 2/9/2010 12:32:00 PM		 Your general auction strategy described at the top is pretty much how I like to play it, too. No targets. No affiliations. Trust your knowledge of the player pool, and then let the play of the table and gut-feel take over.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 12:34:00 PM		 Still no cricket bids yet. I tried to slide Angel Guzman through at a buck, but no luck.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 12:47:00 PM		 Bidding's going too quick to blog right now. Recent buys for me: Coghlan at $15, and Jason Motte at $4
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 12:55:00 PM		 Got Montero for $11. I stand by my Yadier criticism.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 12:56:00 PM		 Weigert just bid his max ($21) on... Cody Ross. Wow.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 12:57:00 PM		 He's now saying he meant to bid $2. That seems slightly more reasonable.
 
By: playsccr
On: 2/9/2010 1:22:00 PM		 i think mclouth is going to be very undervalued this year. very under the rader
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 1:29:00 PM		 My team at the 2nd break:

Montero $11
John Baker $5
Votto $34
Kelly Johnson $7
DeRosa $15
Orlando Cabrera $14
Kemp $41
McLouth $19
Coghlan $15

Lincecum $37
Halladay $34
Pelfrey $4
Aaron Cook $2
Paul Maholm $2
Motte $4

I still have $16 left, and hold the hammer with a $9 max. In fact I've held the hammer most of the endgame. The $7 buy on Johnson was a shut-out bid - I opened at $7, as that was the max of the teams who still needed 2B and might be interested in bidding on him.

Could use a few more steals, and I've basically punted saves (there's one more Closer in Waiting I have my eye on), but so far so good.
 
By: playsccr
On: 2/9/2010 1:32:00 PM		 i really like k johnson there
 
By: Scott Pianowski
On: 2/9/2010 1:40:00 PM		 Montero's a fantastic buy at $11 (he's my No. 6 catcher for mixed) but it's unfair to compare players purchased at different times of the auction. I stand behind my assertion that $7 for Molina is a bad valuation, and I'll wager anything he earns more than that.
 
By: Scott Pianowski
On: 2/9/2010 2:07:00 PM		 I'm curious what Tommy Hanson and Yovani Gallardo went for.
 
By: Derek VanRiper
On: 2/9/2010 2:08:00 PM		 I was smoked in Tout by waiting on catchers two years ago, so I went to 10 on Molina -- no regrets -- but Montero at 11 is a steal. 4 for Hundley pissed me off about 30-40 players later when I realized everyone else just didn't care about catchers as much as I thought.
 
By: jtopper
On: 2/9/2010 2:11:00 PM		 I know Kelly Johnson's a Diamondback now, but what else has changed about him over these past two years? Why has his outlook somewhat favorable?
 
By: Derek VanRiper
On: 2/9/2010 2:20:00 PM		 Hanson - $26, Gallardo - $23
 
By: playsccr
On: 2/9/2010 2:21:00 PM		 s drew?
 
By: Erickson
On: 2/9/2010 2:22:00 PM		 I like the Montero price too.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 2:28:00 PM		 Final roster - left $1 on the table:

Montero $11
Baker $4
Votto $34
KJohnson $7
DeRosa $15
OCabrera $14
Gaby Sanchez $2
Ronny Cedeno $2
Kemp $41
McLouth $19
Coghlan $15
Josh Willingham $6
Angel Pagan $1
Allen Craig $1

Lincecum $37
Halladay $34
Pelfrey $4
Cook $2
Maholm $2
Jon Niese $1
Charlie Morton $1
Andrew Miller $1
Motte $4

Decided not to bother with another closer-in-waiting, and will instead do my usual in this league, which is try to get lucky in the reserve draft and/or FAAB some saves.

Overall seems like a fairly solid squad. Grabbed Logan Morrison as my first pick in the seven-round reserve draft, as Sanchez insurance, and will probably have to find a 2B/MI to reserve as well.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 2:40:00 PM		 Going $6 on Willingham briefly cost me the hammer during the end game, which may have been a mistake as I then couldn't go for the junior LaRoche or Rolen as my CI, but he was the only semi-reliable 20 HR bat left on the table at that point so it seemed a good spot to use it in. Otherwise, no regrets, really.
 
By: playsccr
On: 2/9/2010 2:42:00 PM		 i really like the pagan pickup. i think beltran is done for a while!
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/9/2010 2:51:00 PM		 DVR got Drew, but I can't remember for how much. He went later in the auction for a little more than 'book value', IIRC, as the last SS available with real upside.
 
By: Derek VanRiper
On: 2/9/2010 2:57:00 PM		 My roster from top to bottom -- prices definitely varied significantly depending on when certain players (my catchers, etc.) were purchased.

Y. Molina - 10
Hundley - 4
D. Murphy - 8
Weeks - 18
S. Drew - 19
Headley - 9
L. Castillo - 2
Delgado - 3
Holliday - 35
Upton - 35
Werth - 29
Heisey - 2
Cunningham - 1
Gamel - 2
Josh Johnson - 27
Cordero - 18
Kuroda - 10
Harang - 9
Cueto - 6
Volstad - 6
Kawakami - 5
Medlen - 1
Storen - 1

First reserve -- Manny Parra -- I'm already feeling the pain here, but maybe this will finally be the year that the raw talent trumps his mental blocks.
 
By: Scott Pianowski
On: 2/9/2010 8:23:00 PM		 I'd be interested to know who all 12 owners are.
 
By: Derek VanRiper
On: 2/9/2010 9:28:00 PM		 Eric Mack, Siegrist, DVR, Al Melchior, John Toczydlowski, Charlie Wiegert, Dave Gonos, Marc Normandin, Scott Swanay, Ben Ice, Scott White and Mike Kuchera.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 2/10/2010 7:45:00 AM		 Full auction results here:

Auction results
 

Leave a comment

Commenting is restricted to registered users only. Please register or login now to submit a comment.

Tell Someone

  • Digg it
  • submit to reddit reddit
  • Add to Mixx!

Recent Favorites

Picks, 7/23/10
Season: 157-150-1, +29.35 units
14-Team PPR Mock Draft Results
We held the first of several summer mocks leading into the start of the regular season on Thursday at Mock Draft Central. The draft included representatives from Yahoo, Sports Illustrated and NFL.com (among others) and the full results are available here.

I had the eighth overall selection this week, picking in the middle of each round with our 14-team, PPR (one point per reception) format. The scoring was very standard otherwise, with four points for passing TD, six points for rushing/receiving TD, 25 passing yards yielding one point and 10 rushing/receiving yards yielding one point. The starting spots were 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE flex, 1 K, 1 D and six bench spots.

Here's how my team turned out:
Sirius XM Fantasy Draft
In NY for this event that took place yesterday at the Hard Rock Cafe in Times Square. Have to say it was more fun than I expected - drafting a 12-team standard scoring 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR league (with headset and mic) live on the radio and in front of about 200 people. I realized that while it's nice to create fantasy content for a living, it's even better when your job is actually to *play fantasy football.*
Is Backlash to LeBron's Decision Hypocrisy?
When LeBron James made "The Decision" it kind of bugged me.  Still does.  But after reading what Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson had to say I am bugged in another way.  I wonder how much of the LeBron backlash is ted into pure hypocrisy, because in choosing to make his own luck LeBron is forcing us to pay attention to how much most of us want to ignore luck when building our sports heroes.
NFL Notes
A look around the league:

RSS Feeds