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Krypto-Nate vs. Lou Williams

A friend who occasionally comes to me for fantasy hoops advice recently hit me with this dilemma: keeper league, with a "you lose the pick associated with the guy you choose to keep" format... top keeper options are Nene, Nate Robinson, or Lou Williams. Nene costs a 9th-round pick, Robinson an 11th and Williams a 15th.

As my friend's keeper deadline has now passed, I'll share the advice I gave him, and my reasoning.

I'm not a big Nene guy... mostly because I've owned him during one or two of the seasons he spent nursing injuries. If healthy, he's obviously a great value in the 9th round -- but I view last year's numbers as the absolute best-case scenario, while the other guys have upside potential. Scratch Nene from the list.

Williams vs. Robinson is an interesting question. Both guys play in offense-friendly systems -- Robinson in Mike D'Antoni's over-caffienated "seven seconds or less" and Williams in Eddie Jordan's "Pete Carril Princeton offense, but run by world-class athletes instead of Princeton students." Both are combo guards, but better scorers than distributors. And both could be looking at expanded roles this season, with Williams taking over Andre Miller's starting point guard spot and Robinson in the running to land the starting two job for the Knicks.

In the right conditions, both have the potential to be high-teens scorers with four-and-change assists and one-and-change steals per game. Robinson shoots more from three and is a better rebounder (which is shocking, given his stature). Looking at last year's numbers alone, when both were part-timers, Robinson would get a slight edge.

Problem is, the Knicks' starting lineup is in complete flux right now. David Lee and Chris Duhon are sure starters, but the other three spots are up for grabs. Robinson's run as a starter might only last as long as Danilo Gallinari's shooting slump. Williams, on the other hand, was installed in Philly's starting five when Miller signed with the Blazers, and has shown no signs of relinquishing the gig to rookie Jrue Holiday or anyone else.

So for me, the decision came down to perhaps the most important stat in fantasy basketball: minutes. At this point, I'm sure Williams will get starter's minutes. I only think Krypto-Nate will. Sometimes, that makes all the difference.


Comments

By: smckeown
On: 10/20/2009 1:09:00 PM
I would have sided with Williams, too. Williams is all but guaranteed to play over 35 mpg. And the lower sacrificed pick makes Williams more attractive, imo.
 
By: IRA
On: 10/20/2009 2:19:00 PM
I'm in a salary cap league and am trying to choose between Williams and J. Nelson (both guaranteed playing time). How do you see that comparison?
 
By: Justin Phan
On: 10/20/2009 6:27:00 PM
I'll take Nene over Nate and Lou Williams in a heartbeat. Zegers you openly acknowledge to be biased on the guy because he burned you in the past which is the wrong way to go about things. Objectively speaking he's got legit top-25 upside, while Nate and Lou's ceiling values are somewhere in the 60s due to their glaring categorical deficiencies.

@IRA - easily Jameer over Lou Williams.
 
By: Charlie Zegers
On: 10/21/2009 7:20:00 AM
We all have our favorites, and we all have players we'd rather avoid. I can't recommend a guy that I wouldn't want on my team, can I?
 
By: nayfel
On: 10/24/2009 5:07:00 PM
I am bias because I rode Nate last year to a title after buying him for $3 but I would still give him the edge. Also, if Duhon ever is out for an extended period, he then becomes an absolute beast. Last year in his starts, his #s were something like 22-7-5 or something.
 

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