Early Second Base ADP
Moving right along with our look at early ADP numbers, it’s time to take a look at the keystone. In a nutshell, second base has traditionally been a thin position in fantasy. We’ve seen a handful of power guys, and by that I mean in the 20-30 homer range, and a few speedsters make their way through the ranks over the years, but once you’ve moved past the top five or six guys, the field sort of blends together into one big mediocre blur.
Whether their league roster requirements include a middle infielder or not, fantasy owners who subscribe to the belief of position scarcity will jump on a top second baseman fairly early for fear they will be saddled with some light-hitting batting average drain who tends to be more a liability than anything else. They’re not really over-reaching for the players, but unless you’re landing someone like a Robinson Cano or a Jason Kipnis, someone whose end-of-year statistics give you a clear-cut advantage, it might just benefit you more to get bigger totals at another spot rather that good-but-not-great numbers here. But that’s been years past. Perhaps this year things will be different?
|Rank||Player||Team||Avg Pick||Min Pick||Max Pick|
|37||Tommy La Stella||Atl||534.69||310||695|
|48||Delino Deshields Jr.||Hou||629.29||528||728|
Nope. Same ol’ same ol’ here at second. You’re looking at roughly one second baseman per round until the first seven are off the board, then a quick four for the panicky owners who suddenly realize just how thin the position really is and think they need to act immediately, and then the rest who are strewn about throughout the middle to late rounds. What we do see here though is a more prominent view of the transition from old to young. A few names we’re used to seeing atop the rankings have dropped further this season while some young, fresh faces steadily climb. The landscape at the position looks like it could have some more dramatic changes within a year or two, so perhaps waiting on the position for a young up-and-comer is best for you keeper league owners.
Matt Carpenter, STL – There’s obviously plenty to love about Carpenter, but in truth, his greatest value lies in his multi-position eligibility. With 42 games played at third last season, he retains that aspect of his allure this year, though he’s obviously a much better value at second than he is at third. But given his numbers and the fact that he’s 28-years old and not likely to produce much more than what he gave you last year, is his eligibility at the hot corner that big a selling point? Big enough to warrant him going in the fourth round in your draft? I’m not so sure.
Ian Kinsler, DET – Talk about rats abandoning the ship; Kinsler has lost a tremendous amount of his fantasy appeal already. Between his age, a statistical decline, and a trade away from hitter-friendly Arlington to pitcher-friendly Comerica Park, he’s no longer the top choice for those looking to fill the position early. He’s still the fifth one off the board in the NFBC, but his 66.41 ADP is probably the lowest it’s been for him. The name recognition should keep him right there on the edge of the top five, but a slow spring could also cause owners to panic
Jedd Gyorko, SD – With 15 home runs from August 1 through the end of the season last year, the second-year second-sacker opens this year’s ADP inside the top 10 at the position. After landing the starting job to open the year, Gyorko got off to a slow start, batting .247 with no home runs over the first month, but started to turn his season around with six home runs and a .3030 MAY. A groin injury may have interrupted his season, but once that power returned to close out the year, you knew he was suddenly everyone’s favorite. With a strong spring, his ADP could creep closer to the top five, and while I’m a fan, it still might be more telling about the position on the whole than Gyorko’s talent level.
Anthony Rendon, WAS – Based on what many are saying, this has all the earmarks of being one of those trendy picks where over-eager fantasy owners ruin the value of a player because they take him too early. Right now, his 223.75 ADP might be a little on the conservative side, but probably closer to where he should go in most drafts than he’ll potentially end up. Discussing his actual skill set at this time now is actually irrelevant because even if I were to say that he could be a huge bust, which I won’t, those who love him with speak louder through his rising ADP.
Alexander Guerrero, LAD – The Cuban import is a relative unknown still, but after people learn that he posted a .290/.402/.576 slash line and walked more than he struck out last season in the Cuban league, he’ll start to become more of a household name and see his ADP climb up. It won’t climb soon though as he is still not guaranteed a job coming out of spring training. He still has to earn the spot. With a strong spring and an announcement that he is starting at second for the Dodgers, he may see a slight spike in his ADP numbers, but he’s still more of a late-round flier than someone you want to fully trust as your starting second baseman.
Scooter Gennett, MIL – I’m not sure if my inclusion here is because I truly believe in Gennett or if I just hate Rickie Weeks that much. Gennett has very light power, despite last year’s .155 ISO showing, and light speed as well, so aside from the potential of a decent average, there’s not much to him. Still, he’s a better option than Weeks who continues to disappoint fantasy owners year after year. Gennett’s ADP will only rise with word of a starting job. Until that comes, he’s best left to the waiver wire.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for nearly two decades on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him directly at firstname.lastname@example.org