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Double-Digit Spread? That's So Ravens: Week 8 Predictions

Joe Flacco stank up the scene on Monday Night and that's all anyone will remember from Week 7 besides Tim Tebow's "Miracle in Miami" and the resulting creation of Tebowing. The Ravens' dismal offense was actually not the worst offensive performance of the week. In fact, it wasn't even the worst offensive performance in the game! They scored around 16 points less than expected given their opportunities while Jacksonville (17 below), Tampa Bay (18 below), Seattle (21 below), and Oakland (39 below - which includes defensive touchdowns) all performed worse. I don't love any of the Week 8 games, but I have Tebow-esque faith in myself, so here goes.

Overall: 11-2-1

Last Week's Predictions:

Pittsburgh -3.5
at Arizona: WIN

Yes, Arizona was coming off a bye week. Yes, Arizona was the home team. Yes, the Steelers O-line was decimated by injuries. That being said, the Steelers dominated a brutal Cardinals team. Big Ben wracked up 3 more TDs and Mike Wallace became one of the most valuable fantasy players.

Denver Tebows +3 at Miami: WIN

I'm not going to brag about this pick, and the line ended up moving to DEN -2. Tebow and the Broncos looked god-awful for the first 57 minutes of the game. But, Tebowing is all the rave and the Broncos' made a ridiculously improbably comeback happen. I still believe Tebow gives the Broncos the best chance to win, not because he is better than Kyle Orton, but because he is less consistent.

Week 8 Predictions:

New England -2.5
at Pittsburgh

There are few coaches I have more confidence in than Bill Belichick. Give him a bye week and he'll make a top team look like the Little Giants. The Patriots are also owners to the AFC's top passing efficiency and number two rushing efficiency. Expect a shootout in Pittsburgh and Tom Brady to come out on top.

Baltimore -13 vs Arizona

As I mentioned last week on the RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today, I hate picking a double-digit spread game. It's way too easy for there to be a backdoor cover and historically, the team with the points will usually prevail. That being said, Baltimore is not nearly as bad as their Monday Night performance against Jacksonville - and I wouldn't be surprised to see the line shift toward Arizona because of public perception. Arizona, however, is that bad. Baltimore still ranks 1st in both pass and run defense efficiency, having allowed 96 points less than an average defense would in similar situations. Even if Baltimore can't get their offense going, I expect their defense to generate points in front of a raucous home crowd.

The most accurate weekly projections from numberFire.com based on wall-street style analytics. numberFire outpredicted two of the most trafficked fantasy sites 70% of the time and are 54-55% against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

Comments

By: sharpsquare
On: 10/28/2011 4:32:00 PM
Great job all year. I rode along to 2 more wins last week. Although every week, you have a line or lines better than I can get on the day this article posts. (Last week Pitt -4 and Den +2, this week NE -3 to -3.5) Regardless, you've been doing a great job, but just pointing that out. Thanks for the insights.
 
By: jnowak2799
On: 10/28/2011 6:39:00 PM
Thats what they call a Sharp in Vegas, you jump on the good lines EARLY, In Vegas if Denver was (+2) early in the week and you bet them at that line, you get that spread. I think thats the reason for the line differences. I think Denver was getting 2 points early in the week and as it got closer to Sunday the line shifted to Denver (-2).........funny story, my dad bet a parlay last week Carolina, and he had Denver (-2), with 5 minutes left in the Denver/Miami game and Miami leading 15-0 he turned off the tv, he thought the site he bets with made a mistake when he had money deposited in his account when he checked it later that day. Great job with this article every week.
 
By: sharpsquare
On: 10/29/2011 3:41:00 AM
jnowak - I'm quite aware of how gambling/sharps/line shifting works. However, in an article intended to advise people how to bet, using lines from anytime prior to the article posting is defeating the purpose.
 
By: Keith Goldner
On: 10/29/2011 12:03:00 PM
Yeah, I try to check them right before I post it. I find the lines typically on Tuesday night before I post on Wednesday. Occasionally (like you mentioned) the lines move somewhat dramatically away from my selections (which is part of the reason I love those picks in the first place).
 
By: sharpsquare
On: 10/29/2011 12:43:00 PM
Your advice has been amazing so far this year. Are these the "best bet" 2 games by the numbers according to numberfire? Or just the 2 you personally like best? When do the numberfire projections populate in the premium area for the upcoming week (Sunday night? Monday?)? I've logged into the website, but haven't signed up for the premium service yet. Thanks Keith.
 
By: Keith Goldner
On: 10/29/2011 1:23:00 PM
Thanks, appreciate it! They are not necessarily the "best bet" games, they're typically the two that I like best that are supported relatively strongly by numberFire. nF projections typically go up around midday on Tuesday (since the team statistics are not updated until after Monday Night Football). Hope that helps.
 

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