Does Collison Spell End for Paul in New Orleans?

• By: The Professor
• On: 2/25/2010 10:06:00 PM

Related: The Professor New Orleans Hornets NBA 



• View Comments : 4

I was talking to my friend Cole this week about how great Darren Collison has been doing as an injury replacement for Chris Paul.  In one league Cole had Paul but didn't get Collison, and his team has fallen rapidly from contention since Paul went down.  In another league Cole did not have Paul but snagged Collison, and all of a sudden his team is on top of the league.  Collison's impact this month has been that dramatic.

As part of the conversation, Cole mentioned that he can't see how the Hornets can keep both of them so he believed that they would try to trade Collison this offseason.  I responded with the opposite hypothesis...what if the Hornets kept Collison and traded Paul?

I know it sounds crazy to think about the Hornets trading a young superstar point guard, one of the new faces of the league, but hear me out.  Last summer there was speculation that Paul could be traded from the Hornets for financial reasons, and Paul himself lent some credence to the idea that he might be dealt.  One year later the Hornets are still losing money, but this time they also have a rookie point guard that is playing like a star.

Here's a look at some numbers:

Paul's 2009-10 stats: 20.4 points, 11.2 assists, 4.6 rebounds, 50% FG, 86% FT, 2.3 steals, 2.5 TOs
Collison last 12 games: 20.6 points, 9.7 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 48% FG, 85% FT, 1.8 steals, 4.8 TOs

Hornets record with Paul starting: 21 - 17
Hornets record with Collison starting: 9 - 11

Paul's future salary: $14.94 Mil in 2010-11, $49 Mil over next three years
Collison's future salary: $1.4 Mil in 2010-11, $8.5 Mil over next four seasons

Paul has the slightly better numbers, most notably he takes much better care of the ball.  But the Hornets' win percentage isn't very different this season with Collison starting instead of Paul.  And for their numbers and records to be that close, the fact that Collison could be had at a more than $40 M discount and kept for an extra year at that...it could be argued that the difference in finances is larger than the difference in impact at this point.  Especially when you consider that Collison is still a rookie and thus has a lot more room to improve than a polished young veteran like Paul would.

Let me be clear: I have no inside information, and neither does Cole.  This was just a conversation between two friends that I'm bringing here to share with you guys.  But what do you think?  Are Paul's days in New Orleans numbered?  Would the Hornets trade him for financial reasons?  SHOULD the Hornets consider trading him, or do you hold onto that kind of talent at all costs and do what you have to to build around it?  And if you were the Hornets GM and were considering trading Paul, just what kind of value would you have to get in return to make you pull the trigger?