Disagreeing with Baseball Prospectus on Delmon Young
- By: Patrick Cain
- On: 3/12/2009 6:36:00 PM
- View Comments : 13
Related: Patrick Cain Minnesota Twins MLB
“Young might be the most useless .290 hitter in the game”
“He was impatient as ever”
“He's the farthest thing from a winning ballplayer”
And then some hedging that he’s still young, etc etc…
What?
Yes, Young has disappointed. Yes, he has flaws in his game. But such negativity doesn’t seem warranted. The guys at BP know more than I do, but let me make the case and I’d love to have them rip me to shreds…
Delmon Young swings at a lot - OK a ton - of pitches outside the strike zone , but he’s doing it less often. In the past three years he hacked at 50.3% in 2006, 41.3% in ’07 and 39.9% in ’08. Each year showed a growth. The difference between 2007 and 2008 is very small, so there is probably a case to be made about margin of error.
But between 2007 and 2008 when he did swing at crap balls, he made more contact, 57.1% vs. 51.3%.
He may also be sitting back a bit more. From ’06 to ’08 he cut down how often he swings at the first pitch from 77.1% to 61.3%. Still high, but baby steps.
Other peripherals improved too. His walks increased, strikeouts decreased etc. Again nothing too great, but remember he’s still just 23, just months older than many top prospects who haven’t even made the majors yet such as Dexter Fowler.
When he came up to the majors, scouts had high hopes for power. For example BP said in 2005 he is “an absolute monster of a hitter.” Right now his measly HR/FB rate of 7.6% looks more like a furry gremlin than the nasty late night eating version.
Last year his GB % also shot up at the expense of hit-making line drives. If his GB% stays up, that’s trouble. But it could be an outlier, we’ll know in a few years.
If you get a chance to grab him late, do so. But understand there are downsides and he may not even be this year’s starter. Nonetheless if I’m in a dynasty league, it’s too early to stop believing.
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Comments
On: 3/12/2009 8:32:00 PM
On: 3/12/2009 10:56:00 PM
(That said, I think they're right on Young.)
On: 3/13/2009 6:29:00 AM
On: 3/13/2009 7:22:00 AM
You're def right about BP not being an answer key. I wrote this to show that it's okay to question any fantasy expert...as long as you have logic to back it.
And are they and you right? Maybe, but there are a lot of people out there who take what they say and don't stop to check out other ways to spin a player's season.
He has shown horrid plate discipline, but it's improving. I'm a stock guy, it just makes me think of a stock that's crumbled but then starts to tick up slowly before it breaksout (for those interested on this, let me know, I'll gladly talk stock stuff with them on the side). Like with a crumbled stock, there's a lot to dislike about D.Young, but there are signs of hope.
All I wanted to show is what these signs of hope are so people can recognize he's not a complete waste of a late draft pick...maybe he's a late bloomer.
On: 3/13/2009 8:21:00 AM
On: 3/13/2009 9:35:00 AM
On: 3/13/2009 11:13:00 AM
I can't believe I even can think DY would be blocked at DH, but he has earned it so far.
On: 3/13/2009 3:14:00 PM
On: 3/14/2009 6:56:00 AM
On: 3/14/2009 6:57:00 AM
On: 3/14/2009 10:02:00 AM
Total swing 59.7% is just a hair behind Vlad.
BB% of 5.7% is absolutely horrible.
Overall contact % of 76.6 is also horrible considering the % of pitches he swings at.
On the surface an improvement in outside swing % from 41.3% to 39.9% looks like a step in the right direction (if you call that a real improvement) but it was accompanied by a reduction in his in zone swing % from 84.3 to 79.5. So yeah he's swinging less... at strikes in the zone. So he's not improving in his pitch recognition he's actually backpedaling.
His BABIP was .347 last year. How bad could he be with these peripherals if he was even a little unlucky (and he was with that BABIP relative to is crappy LD% of 17.1 which fell from 07-08).
Delmon Young sucks, and he will probably be worse this year. He doesn't suck because he's a bad player with bad skills. Quite to the contrary it's obvious that his skill set is through the roof. He sucks because he refuses to listen or be coached, and he obviously has no inner sense of self control when he's in the box. We've seen this before from guys like Johnny Estrada. For every Placido Palanco there will be eight Willie Bloomquists. His ISO has never been over .200 so it's hard to argue the power will come. If he can't develop some patience, he's doomed to a AAAA career.
On: 3/14/2009 12:16:00 PM
I agree with the previous poster that his problem is largely psychological/mental, and sometimes that is just as difficult to overcome as having a hole in one's swing or a lack of bat speed. But sometimes not. The reason you take a flier on Young is that should he overcome it, the upside is massive. And given where you can get him, the pot odds justify that call.
On: 3/14/2009 11:35:00 PM
That said, I'm very slow to give up on guys with his raw talent. I kept him in one Scoresheet league fully aware of his flaws and playing time risks. But I'm also not targeting him in redraft leagues or even necessarily looking to trade for him from impatient owners in other keeper leagues. I look at it this way - I don't want to take on his problems if I don't already have him, but if I do have him, I'll slog through it.
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