Catcher ADP Trends in the NFBC
With about a month having gone by since we last broke down the NFBC ADP by position, it’s time we checked in again to see what type of movement we’re looking at here at the end of February just before spring training games get ready to begin. We’ll start It off with the catchers once again.
The position continues to look plenty deep and after a number of drafts done, both real and mock, we’re seeing a lot of the same overall trends. Only the top nine backstops are going inside the first 100 picks (6-8 rounds depending on the number of teams in your league), with a small middle tier coming off the board between rounds 9 and 11 and the rest being drafted in the 13th and beyond. One thing to remember is that these are two-catcher leagues we’re talking about. In single-catcher leagues, the top 10 will normally go a little earlier than we see here, but those who don’t grab a top-rated catcher will wait until the very end of the draft so you won’t see that middle tier come off in the same place. Those catchers will get lumped together with the back end.
So with that all in mind, let’s take a look at the ADP movement going in within the position.
|Rank||Player||Team||Current ADP||1 Month Ago||Trend|
John Jaso, OAK (+7.88%) – There’s not much power to be had and there certainly isn’t a whole lot of speed, but hot damn if you’re in an OBP league then Jaso is your man. He’s not even close to being the guy you look for as your primary catcher, but if you’re in a two-catcher league and you need a solid complement, then Jaso is a low-cost/low-risk investment who won’t kill you in batting average and can be a big help if your league counts OBP as a category. No need to reach though as he’ll be there way late in your draft.
Miguel Montero, ARI (+7.31%) – The Diamondbacks have expressed confidence in Montero and fantasy owners seem to be buying into the fact that last year’s decline was more aberration than the start of a career gone south. Many even still consider him a perfectly acceptable No. 1 catcher. However he’s soon-to-be on the wrong side of 30 and has a history of back and knee problems, so this should be a very telling season. Should he start the year off slowly, prepare yourself for a run to the waiver wire.
Travis d’Arnaud, NYM (+7.02%) – His ankle is healed and he’s ready for his first full season in the majors, but fantasy owners are still hedging their bets with him. Assuming the projections for him are pretty close, he should prove to be a solid late-round option as a second catcher. He’s creeping up the ADP ranks slowly but it’s doubtful that he pushes to anywhere that will hurt the return value. It’s not like he’s pushing past the 19th or 20th round in standard two-catcher leagues.
Yan Gomes, CLE (+6.14%) – With news that the Indians are looking to try Carlos Santana at third, Gomes is becoming more and more of a popular/slightly trendy pick. He’s expected to see an increase in at-bats this year and while his power is only considered mid-level, he’s capable of hitting for a high average and a solid OBP. Consider him like a rich man’s John Jaso, so to speak.
Wilin Rosario, COL (+5.72%) – With every mock draft that goes by Rosario inches closer towards being that top backstop whom everyone covets. There are still a few questions regarding his ability to continue hitting for a high average, but that power is for real. Coors Field is definitely helping him out as well, but it’s also increasing the price tag and pushing into the fifth round in many leagues. The les people become enamored with Joe Mauer playing first base, the more they will turn to Rosario.
Ryan Doumit, ATL (-9.52%) – Given the configuration of the Braves outfield and Doumit’s defensive shortcomings, the drop in ADP doesn’t seem too difficult to believe. Maybe if Jason Heyward or Justin Upton gets hurt will he see more time, but the Braves have enough help behind the dish that they likely won’t need him there and he could start to lose his catcher eligibility as well as overall at-bats.
Jesus Montero, SEA (-8.36%) – Did you see how fat he was coming in to camp this year? With the Mariners loading up on first basemen who can also play the outfield, there’s no room for anyone but the DH spot. That means Montero is out of luck unless he rakes so tremendously that he forces the team to find a spot for him. Highly unlikely though. Slowly but surely, it’s looking like the career that never was.
Yadier Molina, ATL (-5.03%) – Age and mileage are set to take their toll on the Cardinals backstop and fantasy owners don’t want to be left holding the bag once the bottom falls out. He’s still capable of hitting for a great average and an even greater OBP, but with the power and walk rate diminishing, fantasy owners seem ready to move on. He’s really starting to move back to the rest of the pack when it comes to ADP right now.
J.P. Arencibia, TEX (-4.57%) – Perhaps the feeling is that Geovany Soto will command most of the work leaving JPA as even just a low-end secondary catcher. He still has great power and Texas is a great environment, but his average will sit in the toilet and his counting stats will likely be limited to just how much he actually plays. If only he could improve his defense and plate discipline. He’d be an amazing option if he could.
Josh Phegley, CHW (-3.96%) – Is that Phegley or Phugley, because his overall numbers can be downright atrocious. He considered a low-end option, but he’s also slipping down the charts as Tyler Flowers is likely to see a little more time now that the novelty of Phegley’s second –half power is wearing off. He’ll still probably see the majority of playing time, but he’s going to have to improve his plate discipline dramatically if he’s ever going to really put that power potential on display.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------