Buy Lowest

• By: Chris Liss
• On: 6/4/2009 1:44:00 AM

Related: Chris Liss 


• View Comments : 10

The "buy-low" sell high mantra is so overused, it's almost meaningless. Try to get B.J. Upton before his average goes up - never mind he's stealing bases in droves and leading off every day for a potent Rays lineup. Try to get Jon Lester before his ERA comes down - never mind he struck out 12 in his last outing. In fact, the typical way the term is used is after a struggling player shows signs, then the "expert" feels safe enough to advise his readers to buy low before everyone else catches on. Well, maybe that works if your league-mates are novices, but in most leagues the buy-low windows on Lester and Upton are closed. To that end, I figured I'd offer some buy-low candidates - for whom the discount price tag still applies.

The caveat here is I have no idea whether these guys will bounce back. Only that they'll be cheap, and IF they bounce back, they could be monsters. Therefore it's a good time to roll the dice.

Geovany Soto - he's being benched temporarily for Koyie Hill. He had a sore shoulder last month. His numbers are abysmal. Still, he was one of the best hitting backstops in the game last season, and the Cubs need him to hit, especially with Aramis Ramirez on the shelf for another six weeks or so. Soto will get his chances.

Carlos Quentin - he got off to a fast start, then fell apart and was eventually DL'd due to plantar fasciaitis. He could return in a week or so, and when healthy is a legitimate 35-40 homer guy.

David Ortiz - he's still in the lineup almost every day, so the Red Sox haven't given up on him yet. If there was something irreparably wrong with him that wouldn't be the case. I don't pretend to know why he's had such a terrible start, but he had the best year of his career in 2007 and is still just 33 years old.

Chris Young (AZ) - he's lost some at-bats to Gerardo Parra/Eric Byrnes, but with Conor Jackson out indefinitely, he's still playing more often than not. Young strikes out far too much, but he has 25-30 HR power, steals bases (on the rare occasion that he reaches) and plays in a good hitter's park.

Stephen Drew - he's gotten a few hits this week, and that might actually be enough to close the true buy-low window, but with just two homers and a terrible batting average, it's possible you could still get him at a steep discount.

Scott Kazmir - he's been a disaster this year, and he's on the DL, but his quad is feeling better, and remember this is a pitcher who struck out 166 batters in 152.1 IP last year.

Ricky Nolasco - he's in the minors trying to straighten things out after a terrible start, and his peripherals really weren't that terrible even in the majors (.400 BABIP!). Based on what he did last season and his home park, he's worth a look now before he does anything positive that jacks up his price.

Scott Baker - he's been victimized by a ton of home runs and a terrible strand rate, but his K:BB numbers are still good, and I expect the long balls and the bullpen implosions to normalize.

Ervin Santana - he's been awful his last couple starts, and it's possible his elbow is still a problem. But it's also possible that he's just struggling with his "feel" due to the prolonged absence, and once he gets it back, you're talking about a pitcher who struck out 214 batters in 219 IP last year.

This isn't rocket science, obviously, but if you want to have the chance for a big profit, you have to take on big risk. As soon as a player shows signs of being his old self, and you feel safe about making the offer - well, guess what, the other owner feels the same way, and his price just went way up, usually unreasonably so as his owner treats him as if he were completely certain to rebound. The time to act on these players is now when you're still unsure if they'll come around. The discomfort you feel about acquiring these players is precisely why they are good values. You can have comfort and certainty, or value, but not both.

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I am certain of one thing though - that *some* of these players will pan out. And also that some will not. And that I don't know which ones are which. I do know that if you had a stock portfolio of these guys collectively, based on what they cost now, it would almost certainly outperform a similar portfolio of the hottest guys in the league based on their current cost. That's because the market usually exaggerates its response to short-term data. You can take advantage of that exaggeration by buying lowest.