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Buy Lowest - Part 2

I wrote the first version of this column three weeks ago, and judge for yourself whether you should have bought into that portfolio generally at the going rate. (It's almost impossible to remember what the market was like for those players now that many have turned it around so completely - unlike the stock market we can't just look back at the dollar value at which they were trading). Here are a few more.

Jimmy Rollins - don't worry about his benching or his stats. If you can get him for a Jermaine Dye or a Kevin Youkilis, just do it. Elite base stealers don't lose their speed at age 30, and his BABIP is due for a major correction, barring a latent injury.

Alfonso Soriano - I don't know why he's hitting .225, but he's always been streaky, he's not hurt and he's not going to lose his job. He's around the same value as Rollins.

Magglio Ordonez - it's possible the power's gone for good, but he's still just 35, and usually power doesn't disappear overnight. Last year's power numbers were in line with his 2006 ones.

David Price - he could get demoted, but it's more likely Andy Sonnanstine does instead. Price's control has been poor, but the strikeouts have been there, and he has the talent to make the quantum leap at any moment.

Clay Buchholz - he's blocked for now, but things change unpredictably, and now's the time to get him after a bad Triple-A start and when the path to the majors hasn't yet materialized.

Kosuke Fukudome - he's been awful in June and hasn't hit for any power, but his Japanese hitting coach who worked with him this offseason will be in Chicago in July to help straighten him out. With Reed Johnson on the DL, Fukudome should continue to see playing time in center field and is worth buying on the cheap in NL leagues, or even deep mixed ones.

Ervin Santana - he's been hurt all year and didn't fare well during his brief comeback, but the skill set is there should he get healthy, and he's likely to come cheap.

Milton Bradley - he's healthy for now, so he should hit as long as he behaves himself and doesn't get hurt.

Kerry Wood - his command has been off this year, but he's averaging more than a strikeout an inning, so he could right the ship at any point.

Chad Qualls - he still has the job, and the save chances will eventually come. If his forearm were really bothering him that much, they would have put him on the shelf already.

Derek Lowe - he's had a couple rough outings, but once he's back in NL parks with no DH, he's likely to bounce back.

Chien-Ming Wang - he's had better command his last time out and is still keeping the ball on the ground. He'll get another shot in the rotation, and if he sticks it wouldn't be all that shocking to see him among the league leaders in second-half wins.

Comments

By: kevinccp
On: 6/27/2009 5:45:00 PM		 Couldn't agree more about Rollins (although he hasn't been the same since predicting he was going to be a better fantasy star than Utley with an interview with *someone*.....)-I just gave up Cano for him in a league where I need steals. Santana-I see surgery coming his way eventually, although I own him in a bunch a leagues. Another guy I'm high on going forward is Jhonny Peralta, eventually he's going to catch fire and hit 15 homers the rest of the way.
 
By: Erik Siegrist
On: 6/27/2009 6:01:00 PM		 Wasn't Santana on the list last time you did one of these... ?
 
By: Scott Pianowski
On: 6/28/2009 6:30:00 AM		 The Yankees actually hammered Lowe in Atlanta (no DH). He's got a 1.45 WHIP at home. There's a significant move in strikeouts (down, worst K/9 of his career) and walks (up) with Lowe; while projecting pitching is the hardest part of this game, there are definitely red flags here.
 
By: Erickson
On: 6/28/2009 9:48:00 AM		 I'll throw Elijah Dukes' name on this pile.
 
By: tumanic
On: 6/28/2009 10:19:00 AM		 Wang took me down for -77 points in 2 weeks...so say I am still bitter would be an understatement....he can't do any worse but I will still pass on him lol I like Jay Bruce and Scott Baker for the second half...
 
By: Dalton Del Don
On: 6/28/2009 12:05:00 PM		 Pianow - All those reasons you mentioned about Lowe are why you might actually be able to buy low.
 
By: Scott Pianowski
On: 6/28/2009 12:43:00 PM		 Here's the very maddening thing with pitching - it's easy to tell why someone is or isn't doing well, but it's hard to figure where it's going. Maybe Lowe has been unlucky in this stretch. Maybe it's a small fix and he'll be fine. Maybe there's an untold injury. Maybe there's a non-baseball issue at play. We can speculate and this is what makes the game fun, but we're all flying blind - or at least semi blind.
 
By: Chris Liss
On: 6/28/2009 1:15:00 PM		 I think the key point isn't that Lowe will bounce back, but that the market will almost always overreact to his poor stretch. If you look at the last article, not all of the players bounced back (Ervin Santana remains on the buy-low list), but enough of them did to make the portfolio as a whole an excellent investment. So yes, we're flying semi-blind with Lowe, but if we weren't, e.g., if there were just a BABIP or strand rate anomaly, then he wouldn't come as cheap. I like Dukes, too, btw. I think the key is that these players own good skill sets but for reasons unknown haven't displayed it for an extended stretch. The market typically overreacts to that, and so there's a profit to be made.
 
By: Dalton Del Don
On: 6/28/2009 3:30:00 PM		 Right. I worry about Lowe the same way Pianow does. But that was kind of Chris' point, at least I think.
 
By: mcbaran
On: 6/29/2009 5:40:00 AM		 I think Homer Bailey is a nice buy low candidate. He has looked terrible, but I think he has it in him. There was a an interesting writeup on him on BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com that I couldnt agree more with.

I also agree Jimmy will come around just has Big Popi Ortiz.
 

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