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Betting BIG against Grandpa Moyer

Record 24-30

Bank Account -168

Padres at Mets - Johan Santana dominated the hitless Pads yesterday and I expect the underrated R.A. Dickey to continue the dominance. Dickey is 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA in his last four starts. Edinson Volquez takes the hill for the Pads as the pitcher with the least amount of run support in the majors at 1.82 runs per game. Volquez is also 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA vs the Mets. David Wright may sit for the Mets, but it looks like Cameron Maybin is out for the Pads which is an even bigger loss since the Pads have few bats that can produce. Also, the Money Line is really low in my mind at -138 so I will take a big shot at a nice payday.

TV's Take: Mets -138/Bet $276 to win $200

Rockies at Reds - Thank you Jamie Moyer for the memories but father time has finally caught up with you. Moyer has a 7.56 ERA over his last five starts. Folks, this looks like the ultimate sucker bet if you ask me and boy I am all in! There are HUGE opportunities in baseball that few people realize unless you bet baseball that you do not see in other sports that much. I am talking about catching a pitcher a few starts before he is cut or sent to the pen. A great, great example was the wager I placed on the Twins last week with the struggling Jason Marquis on the hill for the Twins. He simply was getting rocked every start and was running out of time. The key with Marquis and Moyer is that they are vets so you know what you are going to get. They are not youngsters like Jeff Samardzija who sometimes need more time to figure it out. Moyer is on a short leash and may only have 1-2 starts left to improve. I say he is done and will get rocked again. Mat Latos takes the mound for the Reds coming off a 3-0 record with a 2.72 ERA in his last six starts. Latos was 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA against the Rockies last year as a member of the Pads.

TV's Take: Reds -180; -1.5 +110/Bet $360 to win $200 and Bet $200 -1.5 to win $220

I like a few more games, but since I am going big on the two games above I am passing.

C.J. Wilson -145 over the Mariners

Red Sox Over 10

Bal -135 over KC

AZ -120 over Mil

LAD -140 over Hou

Comments

By: Tom Vara
On: 5/27/2012 1:30:00 PM
Wow, a wonderful day as we cash in $660 on a 3-0 day! I'm back in the black baby! My record is now 27-30 +492 on the year. My record on big bets is fantastic. Enjoy the rest of the day as I know I will!
 
By: rkinigson
On: 5/27/2012 2:55:00 PM
Although I am not a fan of big bets, especially on heavy favorites, it does seem to be working out for you. Good job!
 
By: Tom Vara
On: 5/27/2012 5:16:00 PM
rkinigson - Thank you I am on a nice streak, but not over confident. Betting big has a way of biting you sooner or later. The Dodgers at home with Lilly or Capuano going is close to being a "must bet" which I missed today.
 
By: scott111
On: 5/28/2012 7:53:00 AM
good call yesterday on cinci. that was my bailout to get back to even. nice hit!!
 

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