Bargain Players

I'll probably change my mind on a few of these guys after doing more research, but if I had to draft today, here are some of the guys I'd target.

Magglio Ordonez - hit well down the stretch and was a victim of bad luck and benching early on

Delmon Young - that he's in shape says he's probably realizing his opportunity is running out. The talent is there, and the dedication should pay dividends. The addition of Jim Thome is another motivator.

Troy Glaus - he's just 33, healthy for now and could easily hit 35 homers for the Braves

Alfonso Soriano - he was off to a fast start for three weeks last year before he hurt his knee and was never the same. He had offseason surgery and is moving well and without pain. Maybe 15 steals is his ceiling, but 30 homers shouldn't be a problem if he stays healthy.

Vladimir Guerrero - a 35-year old likely Hall of Famer getting to DH in Texas? I'll take the injury risk.

Jeremy Hermida - former top prospect gets a fresh start. While Hermida's the fourth OF, all he needs is a J.D. Drew or Mike Cameron injury (not exactly a long shot) to see regular at-bats.

Scott Kazmir - huge strikeout potential, a pitcher's park and getting out of the AL East.

Tim Hudson - take away the bad BABIP, and you have a groundballer with a 2.5:1 K:BB ratio down the stretch. The Braves know he's healthy because they gave him a three-year $27 million deal.

Brad Lidge - injuries derailed him last year, but if healthy he's a rock solid closer, and there are no worries about Charlie Manuel's loyalty.

Elijah Dukes - he showed what he's capable of in 2008, and he'll come cheap after last year's step back. As long as he stays out of jail, he's got a good chance to break out.

Vernon Wells - he's only 31, and last year's struggles can be attributed in part to a wrist injury.

Dioner Navarro - He was hurt last year but showed his skills in 2008. He's still just 26 years old and should get at least half the catching at-bats.

Jon Garland - an innings eater with good control in San Diego.


By: million_dollar_sleeper
On: 2/26/2010 1:33:00 PM
jon garland? i dont think you want him eating up your innings
By: tumanic
On: 2/26/2010 2:33:00 PM
Soriano??? Didn't see that one coming from you.....NOT! :)
By: Dave Regan
On: 2/26/2010 2:34:00 PM
"Easily" 35 HR from Troy Glaus? Not sure there...

By: andtinez
On: 2/26/2010 4:38:00 PM
Dioner Navarro babip by year... '05: .296, '06: .292, '07: .249, '08: .318, '09: .231. Which year looks looks like the lucky one? '08. That was not a skills improvement, that was luck. His bb% has been in decline 4 years running. He makes good contact, but that .295 avg in '08 was a fluke.
By: Kenn Ruby
On: 2/26/2010 4:46:00 PM
Chris, I trust you more than just about anybody when talking about fantasy sports, but I will *NOT* follow you on Soriano again this year.

I'll tuck away the rest of the list though...
By: andtinez
On: 2/26/2010 4:49:00 PM
I like Magglio for a slight bounce back year, but at 36 yrs old? I do agree that he is a bargain and at some point I guess I would take him. I'd rather wait even later and go after Ryan Raburn who is defensively challenged, but I think could breakout given some PT if Austin Jackson proves he's not ready like I think he will.
By: Kevin Payne
On: 2/26/2010 6:13:00 PM
Re:Ordonez-If I remember correctly he had something going on personally in his family that was resolved. Once it was (he hit .375 after the ASB) he was fine. Remember, Liss isn't saying these guys are top players at their position, but they'll be bargains which Mags will be.
By: Chris Liss
On: 2/26/2010 6:29:00 PM
Soriano got hurt early last year - it just wasn't reported until much later. As for Navarro, you can't look at a guy's 23-26 seasons and figure out the outlier - most get better as they get older, and catchers are late bloomers. But I'm glad no one agrees, and it makes my point - these guys will come cheap. And Glaus is 33 years old - he can easily hit 35 in 600 ABs. And Garland got by in Chicago for years. This is a great situation for him - 10 wins a sub 4.00 ERA for sure with upside for low-3.00s. But again, if you guys all agreed, these guys wouldn't be bargains!

By: Dave Regan
On: 2/26/2010 9:18:00 PM
...and the last time Glaus got 600 at-bats was, well...never. I'd be mildly surprised if he's healthy enough to hit 25. Of course even if he does that, sure, he's a bargain.
By: tumanic
On: 2/26/2010 10:02:00 PM
I thought Weiters was over hyped last year......I think Heyward is under valued and a bargain this year.....Chris Coghlan I am liking more as a bargain....lead off hitter that hits .300???? For a deep bargain I like Manny Parra.....Wolf and Davis ought to help his mature process and it sounds like his head is on straight for now....
By: Chris Liss
On: 2/27/2010 8:51:00 AM
sorry, 600 plate appearances.
By: million_dollar_sleeper
On: 2/27/2010 8:59:00 AM
sorry but no one with a sub 5.0 K/9 will be on any of my teams
garland = 9 wins, 1.36 WHIP, 4.20 ERA, 4.7 K/9. disgusting
By: smckeown
On: 2/27/2010 12:22:00 PM
Mags is a great bounce-back candidate. His early-season struggles and late surge directly correlates with his wife's cancer scare. As soon as she was cleared, he started raking. I don't think he's a 25-30 homer guy anymore, but he'll hit .300+ with a more RBI than he had last year.
By: smckeown
On: 2/27/2010 12:23:00 PM
andtinez - Raburn will have trouble getting at-bats now that Damon is a Tiger.
By: tumanic
On: 2/27/2010 1:06:00 PM
Mags had a 1/1 bb/k ratio pretty much last is a risk but for as late as he goes.....a pretty worth while bargain. Garland in a pitchers park still doesn't excite me to much either but I do like your Kazmir pick....
By: Dave Regan
On: 2/27/2010 5:43:00 PM
Chris - I just realized I shouldn't be disagreeing with anyone who just won Tout Wars.
By: joeramsfan
On: 2/27/2010 5:44:00 PM
I like Huddy and Soriano. Hope I can get Sori for $19, maybe less. Reports have him nearing 100%. If so, 25-30 Hrs & 15 SB's look very real. Need a crystal ball to know, but worth the gamble.
By: Erickson
On: 2/28/2010 8:21:00 AM
Here's the other point of this exercise. Looking at this list, how many of these guys are going to cost all that much to acquire? Aside from Soriano and a couple of the starters, they're going to be dirt cheap, and thus replaceable. I've grabbed Dukes in the endgame of a couple of mocks, as an example. I'd much rather gamble on his upside than grab a "safe" Aaron Rowand. It's true that "buy low, sell high" is often misused at best. This is a good demonstration of truly buying low.
By: tumanic
On: 2/28/2010 1:02:00 PM
Buy low sell high is only misused if you don't know what you are doing.....especially from a trading aspect...
By: Erickson
On: 2/28/2010 4:10:00 PM
Misused as analytical tool - all too often someone preaches "buy low" or "sell high" long after the window to do so has closed.

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