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Assorted NFL Thoughts

Tom Brady has become Peyton Manning (great record, regular-season stats, but can't win the big one), while ironically Eli Manning has become the old Tom Brady (clutch, big-game QB, more modest stats).

While Peyton Manning's record of seven straight 12-win seasons from 2003-2009 is unlikely to be matched, and also bracketed by 10-win seasons, putting that streak at nine, the Patriots' win totals since 2001 are as follows: 11, 9, 14, 14, 10, 12, 16, 11, 10, 14, 13. Brady took over for Drew Bledsoe midseason in 2001, and missed all of 2008, but if you count the years during Manning's streak - 2003-2009, the Pats averaged 12.43 wins per year, despite Matt Cassel playing in 2008. Moreover, if you remove 2008 and add 2009-2011, they averaged 12.9 wins over the last eight years with Brady. Over the seven-year 12-win streak the Colts averaged 12.7 wins.

Wes Welker's drop (if you want to call it that) might very well have cost the Patriots the SB win and himself a spot in the Hall of Fame.

If Peyton Manning's arm strength doesn't come all the way back, we might be looking at Chad Pennington 2.0 next year.

Now that Peyton Manning missed a full season, and his career is in jeopardy, is anyone going to catch Brett Favre for the all-time yardage/TD records? Drew Brees has another 31,000-plus to go and is already 32. And Aaron Rodgers wasted too many years as Favre's backup.

If you were starting a franchise, which of these three QBs would you take: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III or Matt Flynn?

The NFC is loaded at QB with only Washington, Arizona and Seattle not set on their starters next year. Tampa and San Francisco are marginally set. The other 11 teams: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Matt Stafford, Michael Vick, Jay Cutler, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Christian Ponder and Sam Bradford.

Even the AFC has Brady, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco set in stone. Tim Tebow and Jake Locker have a chance to be franchise quarterbacks, too. Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Palmer/Jason Campbell and Matt Cassel are also likely starters. That leaves only Miami (Matt Moore), Cleveland (Colt McCoy) and Jacksonville (Blaine Gabbert) as near locks to look elsewhere.

In a year where the lockout might have hurt rookie production, the 2011 class is instead looking like one of the great ones: Cam Newton, Von Miller, A.J. Green, Patrick Peterson, Julio Jones, Aldon Smith, Jake Locker, J.J. Watt, Christian Ponder, Ryan Kerrigan, Nate Solder, Phil Taylor, Andy Dalton, Titus Young, Torrey Smith, Greg Little, Randall Cobb, DeMarco Murray, Roy Helu, Kendall Hunter, Denarius Moore and T.J. Yates all made major impacts with many looking like future stars.

What an odd year Vernon Davis had with only one 75-yard game through week 16, then three straight 110-plus games in Week 17 and the playoffs when it didn't count for your fantasy team. Because of the playoffs, he'll likely be a top-five-ish TE next year after Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and maybe Aaron Hernandez/Jason Witten/Antonio Gates.

Tony Gonzalez last year was like Brett Favre in 2009 - owning all the all-time records and still putting distance between himself and active players chasing him like Jason Witten and Antonio Gates. (Witten had more yards, but Gonzalez more catches and TDs).

While Jerry Rice is out on an island with his receptions, receiving yards and TD records, it's almost easier to see an active player like Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald or A.J. Green breaking one of those than it is anyone breaking Emmitt Smith's rushing yardage record (18,355). Consider that Steven Jackson and Frank Gore with all the mileage they have are not even half way there. Among active players, Ray Rice (24), Maurice Jones-Drew (26) and Adrian Peterson (26) probably have the best chance, but it's almost impossible to see anyone holding up that long these days under the workloads that Smith used to receive. It's worth noting Barry Sanders would likely have surpassed Smith had he not retired early.

Eli Manning and Matthew Stafford threw for more yards this year than Peyton Manning, Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner or Dan Fouts ever did in any year of their careers.

The Giants won their fourth Super Bowl in the last 25 years, more than any franchise over that span. They're tied for fourth place in SB wins with the Packers. The Niners and Cowboys have five, while the Steelers have six. The NFC East has won 12 of the league's 46 SBs (5 Cowboys, 4 Giants, 3 Redskins), and have appeared in 20 (8 Cowboys, 5 Giants, 5 Redskins, 2 Eagles).

Comments

By: Mark Stopa
On: 2/9/2012 4:14:00 PM		 If Manning doesn't recover all of his arm strength, he might be an inferior version of Chad Pennington, as Manning's mind will tell him he can make throws that his body won't allow him to make. At least Pennington knew what he was able/unable to do.

I'd take Andrew Luck among those three. I think Flynn will be over-hyped this offseason; we've seen NFL QBs look good for a game or two then flame out - Rob Johnson comes to mind.
 
By: Scott Pianowski
On: 2/9/2012 4:36:00 PM		 Brady took over in Week 3 of 2001 (coincidentally, beating Manning and the Colts).

W/L record is gigantically flawed as a quarterback stat, but anyway, Brady is 16-6 in the playoffs. Peyton Manning is 9-10. Eli Manning is 8-3.

I hope everyone remembers that five Super Bowl trips (and three wins) is better than two Super Bowl trips (and two wins). We'll see how many Eli Manning and the Giants go on to win. Maybe a bunch more. Maybe they never get back. Obviously Eli Manning is about 3.5 years younger than Brady (it's a 41-month difference, to be exact); barring injury, he'll get the last word.

I'd love to see odds (professional or informal) on what Eli and the Giants go on to win.
 
By: Mark Stopa
On: 2/9/2012 4:45:00 PM		 O/U on Super Bowl rings from this point forward ...

Brady 0.5
Eli 0.5

I'd probably take the over for both, but there are lots of other elite QBs who are going to get rings, too.
 
By: Chris Liss
On: 2/9/2012 4:53:00 PM		 Well, it wasn't fair to Peyton either when he was the better QB, but Brady had the better team and played more error-free. But that's how the narrative goes - Eli made the perfect throw to Manningham, and Brady threw the pick and put the ball behind Welker. There's no doubt Brady's far the better QB than Eli to date and even right now, while Peyton/Brady is a legitimate debate. But it is a bit ironic that Brady's now in the Peyton role - at least since 2005.
 
By: Derek VanRiper
On: 2/9/2012 7:28:00 PM		 Not a buyer on Matt Flynn either.
 
By: Kevin Payne
On: 2/9/2012 8:04:00 PM		 It's over-dramatic to say Welker's drop may have cost him the HOF.

In fact, his name and HOF don't even belong in the same sentence. If Andre Reed, Tim Brown and Cris Carter are having trouble getting in, how the heck is Welker going to get in? It isn't even close go compare the stats, even if Welker plays at his current level another five years (something I highly doubt) he falls short in most categories (especially TDs, Carter has 98 more *right now*).
 
By: jnowak2799
On: 2/9/2012 9:04:00 PM		 Good for you N.Y. Giants on winning your 4th Super Bowl, in Buffalo we are still waiting for our first real professional championship, we are now approaching 100 years of sports seasons without a championship.
Buffalo Bills 0 championships in the 46 years of the Super Bowl era.
Buffalo Sabres 0 Stanley Cups in their 42 years of existence.
Buffalo Braves 0 championships in the 8 years they were in the NBA.

If Buffalo ever does find a way to win a championship, celebrations like this one probably will be a thing of the past, this is how Buffalo fans celebrated in New York City at a bar called Calico Jacks after we finally beat the Patriots for the first time since 2003, watch and enjoy.

http://youtu.be/fVOvgzEBSx4

watch this minute long video and realize this was a week 3 regular season victory.
 
By: matthewthill7
On: 2/9/2012 10:32:00 PM		 It's wrong that the recent SB performance by the Patriots is leading some people to question whether simply getting to the important games is enough. In any sport where there are 30-odd teams all playing for one title, the chances of any given team winning it all is very low. Even for what we think are the "best" teams, how often do the consensus "best" teams actually win the last game of the season? 10% of the time? Less? So how logical is it that we are not only expecting our 21st century sports stars to play for the title (almost) every year, but to have a stellar record in those games, too? In NCAA basketball teams like Duke, UNC and Michigan State turn into dynasties - and casual fan favorites - because they get to the Elite-8 almost every year, even if they only rarely win the championship. But the most recent thinking in football is that Brady might not be as good as we previously thought, because he's sub-.500 in the Big One. How does that make any sense?
 
By: Chris Liss
On: 2/9/2012 11:04:00 PM		 Maybe a BCS-type system would be better? Doesn't matter how the guy plays in the SB because we vote on who's the best overall? Basically if you want to have a single-elimination tournament, then the SB has to be the ultimate barometer of success. And players will be judged accordingly. Otherwise, we're just kind of have an overall power ranking determined by something like "play success rate" or in baseball by run differential or team OPS. At some point the game is the game, and everything else is just a way to describe it.
 
By: Zenguerrilla
On: 2/9/2012 11:16:00 PM		 Fouts played in 14 game seasons. He averaged 320 ypg one year. Eli was 308ypg and Stafford was 317ypg this year. Lets not "FOX NEWS" the facts.

I don't see how Welker's drop or if he caught it for a td has any bearing on him going into the HOF at all? Nonsense! The Pats were the best team in the NFL last year but the Packers won the tournament. The Packers were the best team in football this year but the 9-7 Giants won the tournament. One game series anything can happen but that is the way football has to be.

If you want to rattle off football championships you should use all the facts. Football has been around a lot longer than the Superbowl era. Titletown isn't located in NYC! :)
 
By: quails144
On: 2/10/2012 12:22:00 AM		 Great point, matthew. I think six months from now there won't be nearly as many people looking sideways at Brady for one bad game or one mediocre playoff... what's really different about him now from three weeks ago? Not even a Brady fan, and I have to admit he's in the discussion for best QB ever. It is SO hard to separate out what makes a winning QB from what QB has won the most (which couldn't possibly be the same thing, right?)

Would LOVE to see Peyton take over some so-so team and roll to (and through) the playoffs. Would make a great story. But probably very unlikely. It's like rooting for Tiger Woods.
 
By: nayfel
On: 2/10/2012 5:45:00 AM		 Who cares about football before the Super Bowl era?
 
By: nayfel
On: 2/10/2012 5:50:00 AM		 I think its obvious now that the upper tier, true elite, superstar quarterbacks in the NFL are the ones that have won a Super Bowl, no? Eli really allowed us to make a definitive list now after this performance, which almost nobody agreed to prior to the year when he was asked. Our list though is somehow pretty short:

Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees

Unbelievable that only 6 active QBs have won. And Payton obviously stays on that list until his play shows otherwise, I think he has earned that.
 
By: matthewthill7
On: 2/10/2012 9:02:00 AM		 Fans in this country are increasingly obsessed with winning, and furthermore they demand that sport champions be determined by a record-based playoff system terminating in a championship game. Most can't stand the BCS because they feel that the title is soiled by (faulty) human opinion. I'm going to put one foot off of the cliff and say that I don't really mind the way that NCAAF and NCAAB handle their business with committee-chosen fields and games. The records matter (but aren't the only thing), and we get the opportunity to rank/seed teams by means other than the letters "W" and "L".

So the Giants won the SB and now we have to listen to the talking heads talk about how the Patriots should have won the game, and how the 49ers should have beaten the Giants, and how the Saints should have beat the 49ers, and so on ad infinitum. And it wasn't just like this for the '11 SB, it's like this damn near every year. I get that the SB has to represent the pinnacle in the sport because that is the way it is set up. But it seems wacky that for a game/event we all love so dearly, we are so seldom satisfied by the ultimate outcome.
 
By: Zenguerrilla
On: 2/10/2012 9:20:00 AM		 Nayfel thinks Jim Brown and Johnny Unitas were no good. Well done! You are young and don't like history apparently. You just made V. Lombardi roll over in his grave....
 
By: nayfel
On: 2/12/2012 5:55:00 PM		 Haha, no, I just don't care about them right now when discussing the SB and all.
 

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