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Archive November 2006

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Leading No. of TDs by Position

QBs (passing TDs)

  1. 21 (Palmer)
  2. 21
  3. 20
  4. 19
  5. 18
  6. 18
  7. 17

WRs (TDs scored)

  1. 9 (Darrell Jackson)
  2. 8
  3. 8
  4. 7
  5. 7
  6. 7
  7. 7
  8. 7
  9. 7
  10. 6
  11. 6
  12. 6
  13. 6

TEs (TDs scored)

  1. 6 (Heap)
  2. 6
  3. 5
  4. 5
  5. 5

RBs (TDs scored)

  1. 24 (Tomlinson)
  2. 15
  3. 12
  4. 11 (Marion Barber)
  5. 8
  6. 8
  7. 8
  8. 8 (Addai)
  9. 8 (Jacobs)
  10. 8 (Jones-Drew)

MLB Gone Crazy

I’m not sure what is more ridiculous, the MVP award winners or the insane contracts being handed out recently. Since the voters get it wrong more often than not, I’m going with the cash giveaways. Let’s start with the awards:

Ryan Howard beats Albert Pujols for NL MVP – Howard did play in 16 more games, but how obsessed are people with home runs? Pujols beat him in average, OBP and slugging percentage, while striking out 131 fewer times. He plays a far superior defense, is more of an asset on the basepaths, hit in the weaker lineup and led MLB in game-winning RBIs by a sizeable margin. With RISP, Pujols had a 1.337 to .942 OPS advantage. Everyone says Howard carried the Phillies’ lineup, but that’s exactly what Pujols did into the playoffs.

Justin Morneau wins AL MVP – I actually don’t have as big of a problem with this one as most, mainly because I didn’t love any alternatives. Sure, Morneau was only the third most valuable player on his own team, but it’s not like Derek Jeter had an overwhelming case; after all, the Yankees would have easily made the playoffs without him.

Juan Pierre signs a 5-year, $44 million contract – He has a .328 OBP and five home runs over the last two seasons. If you take the 37 times he was caught stealing into account, his OBP becomes even more intolerable. This isn’t fantasy baseball – his steals aren’t all that valuable in real life. No one in baseball produced more outs last year than Juan Pierre.

Gary Matthews Jr. signs a 5-year, $50 million contract – Someone did tell the Angels that he’s 32 years old and coming off by far his career-year, right? By the way, he did it while playing in Ameriquest Field. He does play good defense, but A’s fans are rejoicing.

Carlos Lee signs a 6-year, $100 million contract – I guess sabermatricians underrate the ability to knock in runs at times, and this is something Lee has a knack for. Still, he’s never even posted a .900 OPS, and his body type doesn’t exactly point to him aging gracefully. I get that there is a lot more money to throw around in MLB these days, but these signings just aren’t very smart - especially long-term.

Wednesday Morning Quarterback

Anyone who says Jamal Lewis is back didn’t watch the game. That Atlanta defense is ruined by injuries, and it’s not like he was all that effective away from the goal line. With the Hat Trick fresh in mind, go sell high.

I would say Chicago has no chance to go to the Super Bowl with Rex Grossman at the helm, but who in the NFC is going to beat them in Chicago in January? I say Dallas.

I refuse to accept Cincinnati’s mediocrity. I know, I know, “defense wins championships,” but no one wants to watch one and done Jacksonville in the playoffs over them, unless maybe you’re an AFC team. Like last year’s Pittsburgh, no team wants any part of the Bengals in the playoffs this year.

Drew Brees is the best fantasy player no one is talking about. Dude threw for more than 500 yards without his best playmaker and a clearly aging Joe Horn. Devery Henderson is two shades of awful. Terrance freakin Copper?! Brees is legit.

The “flex scheduling” wasn’t supposed to work like this. It’s Football Night in America – starring, Jeff Garcia!

For someone so “likeable,” Tiki Barber sure does throw his coaches under the bus an awful lot.

Let me get this straight: Lee Evans, who wears No. 83, caught not one, but two 83-yard touchdowns Sunday?! Coincidence? I think not – this kid is special. The only thing preventing superstardom is J.P. Losman. A big obstacle, admittedly.

Nick Saban – The best coach during the second half of seasons in NFL history.

Good thing New England won’t have to worry about playing at that pesky “Gillette Stadium” come playoff time.

Aaron Brooks looked dangerously close to competent Sunday; too bad that helps zero fantasy options in Oakland. At this point, you’re more likely to see Randy Moss on a milk carton than you are catching an NFL pass.

I’m too young to have watched Jim Brown or Earl Campbell, but I’ve never personally witnessed a more physical running back than Larry Johnson.

FOSTER: Australian for injury.

Am I crazy, or is Jeff Fisher doing one of the better coaching jobs in the NFL this year?

The Inconvenient Truth – Frank Gore is a top-5 running back in the NFL.

It’s impossible to explain the Chargers’ offense being so potent, yet Antonio Gates being so irrelevant.

Can’t wait to see which running back Denver selects in the first round of next year’s NFL draft.

Remember when Mike Vanderjagt criticized teammates for not being clutch? Good times. Drinking before interviews is one thing; Vanderjagt should probably start refraining before games.

Cubs Overpay for Soriano and DeRosa

The Cubs just signed two guys coming off of career years. DeRosa's basically just a utility guy who got at-bats and saw some hits fall in. Soriano upped his walk rate, and became a good, but not great hitter (.277/.351/.560 is good, but not great for a corner outfielder). And the Cubs give him an eight-year, $136 million deal at age 30? Best case scenario, Soriano stays as good as he was last year through the duration of the deal - (highly unlikely) - even then the team's only getting market value. When your best, unrealistic hope is to merely get fair market value on an eight-year deal for a player in his 30s, that's a horrible signing.

Jim Hendry did a good job spotting talent as the head of their minor league system, but he's made some stupid signings (Dempster, Howry, Eyre, DeRosa, Soriano) as GM.

It's Not Eli's Fault

Last week I put too much responsibility for the Giants' fate on Eli Manning's shoulders, and I now realize that was mistake. Eli's doing the best he can under the circumstances. I know he missed a wide open Plaxico Burress for a would-be touchdown a couple times, but you have to feel for Eli. He was under enormous pressure to go into the family business even though his real dream was to be an accountant or a clerk at a supermarket. Eli was close to hanging it up late last year, but then his brother starting doing those commericials mocking supermarket checkout guys by cheering for them in an absurd manner. That sent the message to Eli that he must honor the family legacy rather than follow his dream. Eli would be tremendous at a desk job, and he would really shine during office flag-football games if he gets his mechanics right and learns not to overthrow open receivers 12 yards down the field.

Eli, I apologize for being so hard on you. Now go quit football, and pursue your real dream. Your family might have difficulty accepting it at first, but you'll save yourself and Giants fans a lot of grief.

Tom Coughlin's Poor Decisions

Now, it's not his fault that Devin Hester returned Jay Feely's missed 52-yard field goal for a touchdown, but it was a stupid idea to try such a low-probability kick from that distance down four with a lot of time left in the fourth quarter. Sure, if he hit it, it would have been great, but this is Giants' stadium with tricky winds, and even had Feely simply missed the kick, Chicago would have had great field position. It was 4th and 15, so you couldn't really go for it - I think you punt with Jeff Feagles who's been a great directional kicker and pin the Bears back. If they were down three, I could see taking the chance to tie the game, but four seemed like it was too much risk for the meager reward.

The other thing that was stupid was punting on 4th and 10 at midfield down 18 with 7:00 minutes left. I mean they probably would have lost anyway, but give yourself a chance! You score with 5:00 left, and you're down 11. Why punt and give up at that point? The Giants never got the ball back after that.

Yao Ming Will Vie for NBA MVP

It's early, but based on how he improved last year and during the World Championships this summer, and now how's he's dominating early on, I think he'll be in the running for MVP with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash and whoever. He'll average 26/12 with close to two blocks, and he'll shoot in the upper 50s from the floor (maybe even 60), and mid-80s from the line. He will be the most efficient offensive player in the league by far. Once he gets the ball in position, he's the most reliable scorer in the league. Tim Duncan would be up there, but you put him on the line, and he hits 60 percent. Forget about Shaq at this stage. Even Tracy McGrady has noticed, admitting that his job is to distribute more and get the ball to Yao.

Eli Manning Has to Play Better

As well as Manning has played in a couple games, most notably in Philadephia, this season, his inconsistency is a major problem for the Giants who are in serious danger of missing the playoffs. I don't like to overreact due to one bad game (I wasn't worried after their losses to Indy and Seattle earlier), but that was because I was sure their defense would come around. Now, I'm not so sure Manning will bounce back, and the defense is much too banged up. Manning has routinely missed open receivers this season, but the last several games, he hasn't had to do much, so it wasn't a big deal. But against the Bears, he threw high on several passes, held the ball too long, made bad decisions, and rarely delivered an accurate, crisp throw. He's just not a very good quarterback right now, and in Year 3, you have to wonder whether he will ever be. Sure Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger have looked bad at times this year, too, but both of them have had sustained runs of consistently good play. Manning never has. The Giants go to Jacksonville this week (another tough game), and still have the Cowboys, Eagles, Panthers and Saints on the schedule. With Michael Strahan out, Osi Umenyiora's status in doubt, their best cover corner, Sam Madison, hurt, Amani Toomer out, and not their starting left tackle, Luke Petitgout out for the year, the Giants could easily finish 9-7 or worse. Unless, Manning gets a slap in the face from his coach, older brother, father or whoever, basically saying: "Snap the f*** out of it, boy. Play with some focus and throw the ball lower and with some accuracy. Come on, now, Tiki's retiring, Strahan only has so much left... Get it done." It's not acceptable for Manning to fall apart down the stretch in Year 3, just as he did last year. He can do better, and he must. It's his responsibility to the franchise given what they pay him and what they gave up to get him. The ability's there, but the mental part of it is up to him.

Giants-Texans

The more I think about it, I like the Texans with the points (13). The Giants have to guard against looking ahead to the Bears on November 12, they're missing Osi Umenyiora and probably Sam Madison (and Houston's passing game isn't bad), and offensively, they might be without Plaxico Burress. The Giants should win, but I don't see it being easy.

The Problem with Baseball

Here's why the current baseball playoff structure is totally stupid and can easily lead to a random team, that no one would argue is the league's best, winning the World Series: because a great winning percentage in baseball is .600, and a horrible one is .400.

When the best teams win just 60 percent of their games, and unimpressive playoff teams win in the mid-50s (in the Cardinals case it was even worse), anything can happen in a short series. Over a 162 game season, having a 60 percent chance versus a 55 percent chance to win an average game makes a huge difference. Over a seven game series, it means very little.

In a sport like baseball where the top teams only win a few percent more than your run of the mill teams, you need to have a huge sample to determine who's the best. That's why the old way they did it - two season long pennant winners meet up in the Series - makes the most sense and is most likely to crown the best team as champs. Moreover, even the way they did it in the 70s and 80s with four divisions each comprising 7 teams is better because there's less likely to be a low-winning percentage team in the playoffs. And there's also one less playoff round for the favorites to get tripped up in.

In leagues like the NBA and NFL, where the top teams win a very high percentage of their games, having more teams in the playoffs or more rounds doesn't randomize things. In the NFL, home field is so big that the regular season means a lot. In the NBA, the team that wins is typically a top team as well. I'd actually argue in the NBA, it would be better to have shorter series and randomize it a little more for the sake of excitement since the being an 75 percent winner gives you a huge edge in a short series. But baseball is in large part a random process once you get to the postseason.

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NFL Notes
A look around the league regarding Week 10:
Week 10 Observations
  • We've beaten to death Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on 4th and 2 in Sunday night's game (the best take on it I've seen is here), but the real takeaway is how much Cris Collinsworth, Al Michaels, Tony Dungy and Rodney Harrison felt it was their duty to spout the conventional wisdom without even attempting to analyze Belichick's basis for the decision. Throw in Bob Costas, and it's appalling that five guys collectively making more than $10 million a year to interpret the sport for us didn't even consider the issue from a probability standpoint. Sadly, the NBC crew is probably the best one on TV. (Update: Jon Gruden just defended Belichick's call on MNF - good for him).
    • Dominant Offense but Shaky Defense...Barkley and Dirk
    This topic is a spin-off from the Michael Jordan thread of last week.  In the excellent discussion on that thread a mini-debate broke out as to how Charles Barkley compares to Kevin Garnett.  The gist of the brief debate was to question whether Barkley was enough better than Garnett offensively to make them comparable in value as overall players despite Garnett’s huge defensive advantages.  The thing is, though, to me there is a much better comp for Barkley in this generation than Garnett:  Dirk Nowitzki.
    What is Iverson's Legacy?
    What are we talking 'bout? We're talking 'bout *IVERSON*.
    Jennings vs Rose
    Last year Derrick Rose was the NBA Rookie of the Year.  One year later, would you take him over current rookie point guard phenom Brandon Jennings?

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