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Adjusting For Position Scarcity

Let’s get right to the math… in a standard 12 Team Mixed 5x5 league there will be a minimum of 276 players selected; more than 300 when you include reserves. However, in this format there are only 250 players with a dollar value of at least $1, which means owners will be challenged to overcome position scarcity in order to fill their rosters.
 
If you read my last post, you already understand the difference between position scarcity and statistical drop-off.
So which positions are truly scarce this season? Fortunately there appear to be just two with an insufficient number of positive-value players to draft… middle infielder and pitcher. In this column, we will look at middle infielder.
 
If you only needed to draft one second baseman and one shortstop there would be no issue. However, once you require teams to add one additional middle infielder you find that there just are not enough positive-value players to go around. In fact, with a minimum of 36 roster spots to fill (12 2B, 12 SS, 12 MI), there are only 29 positive-value players available (26 when you consider alternate-position eligibility):
DV
ADP
NAME
POS. ELIG.
$35
9
2B
$33
4
SS
$30
18
2B
$29
19
SS
$28
19
SS
$24
41
SS
$23
23
2B
$19
44
SS
$19
61
2B
$17
124
SS
$15
80
2B, OF
$14
144
SS
$13
72
SS
$12
154
2B
$12
77
2B
$12
79
2B
$11
53
2B
$11
105
2B, OF
$10
142
2B
$9
88
SS
$9
166
2B
$8
165
SS
$8
148
2B
$6
148
SS
$5
240
SS
$5
175
Emilio Bonifacio
SS, 3B, OF
$2
131
SS
$2
137
2B
$1
234
2B
$0
237
SS
$0
149
SS
$0
197
2B, 3B
$0
231
3B
$0
213
SS
-$1
241
SS, 3B
-$1
234
2B
-$1
174
SS
-$2
253
SS
-$3
236
2B, 1B, 3B
-$3
276
SS
-$3
243
SS
-$4
309
SS
In a situation like this, where there are essentially four studs and then everyone else, you may want to be aggressive at first and then just wait until the late rounds since there’s not much difference between the best non-Cano/Pedroia or Tulowitzki/Ramirez player and replacement value (what's left once you remove the number of players drafted at a particular position).
But, since we must pay at least $1 for each player and there are not enough positive-valued players to fill all the starting slots, we have to increase the values of the hitters at that position to ensure the last drafted player is worth $1.
 
The question is how do you properly adjust or weight player values, similar to calculating inflation in keeper leagues. You can simply add to each player’s current DV from the bottom up (BUDV), which would result in Cano having an adjusted DV of $39, but that method does not accurately maintain the proper DV ratios from one player to the next.
 
There are a number of mathematical formulas for adjusting DV as a result of position scarcity, most of which require calculating such factors as the statistical mean of a particular position and replacement value. They also consider various league parameters, such as roster size, salary cap, hitting-to-pitching spending ratios, etc.
 
Considering all of this, and based on a standard 12 Team Mixed 5x5 league with a 75%/25% spending ratio, position scarcity value adjustments (PSVADV) for middle infielders roughly translates to an increase every 25% incrementally. This adjusts Cano’s value to $43.
DV
BUDV
PSVADV
NAME
$35
$39
$43
$33
$37
$41
$30
$34
$38
$29
$33
$37
$28
$32
$36
$24
$28
$32
$23
$28
$31
$19
$24
$25
$19
$24
$25
$17
$22
$23
$15
$20
$21
$14
$19
$20
$13
$18
$19
$12
$17
$18
$12
$17
$18
$12
$17
$18
$11
$16
$15
$11
$16
$15
$10
$15
$14
$9
$14
$13
$9
$14
$13
$8
$13
$12
$8
$13
$12
$6
$11
$8
$5
$10
$7
$5
$10
$7
Emilio Bonifacio
$2
$7
$4
$2
$7
$4
$1
$6
$3
$0
$5
$3
$0
$5
$3
$0
$5
$3
$0
$5
$3
$0
$5
$3
-$1
$4
$2
-$1
$4
$2
-$1
$4
$2
-$2
$3
$1
-$3
$2
$1
-$3
$2
$1
-$3
$2
$1
-$4
$1
$1
Either way, you obviously pay more for the top players in an auction draft, and many of these adjusted values may result in players being taken earlier than expected in snake drafts. But, by properly adjusting dollar values based on position scarcity, you are in a much better position to plan your draft accordingly and, in the event others do not make the same adjustments, find yourself getting many of the top-tier players for less than their true value.

Comments

By: seps
On: 2/22/2012 5:19:00 AM		 Not to throw a wrench in your analysis but how can JJ Hardy have a DV of $2 coming off a 30 HR season? I know he's unlikely to repeat it but even he he drops down to 20 HR's, he's definitely worth more than $2. And I know any league I'll be in will value Ackley, Desmond, Drew, Escobar & Murphy mucg higher than you have.
 
By: rkinigson
On: 2/22/2012 5:44:00 AM		 Player valuation is subjective, and I have seen Hardy with DVs between $1 and $4. The adjusted DV (in this case $4) is what I would spend on him. If you value players differently, simply factor that in when adjusting salaries for position scarcity.

The same is true for the others you mentioned, and I have seen the following unadjusted DVs:

Ackley $1 - $3
Desmond $0 - $2
Drew $0 - $2
Escobar -$3 - $1
Murphy -$3 - $1
 
By: lvtdude
On: 2/22/2012 8:05:00 AM		 I expect Ackley to produce near the level of Walker, Kendrick and Kipnis. At 2 bucks I think he's a great bargain.
 
By: matthewthill7
On: 2/23/2012 12:46:00 PM		 You've done a nice job on the Position Scarcity articles. They make sense, math-wise and common-sense wise.
 
By: rkinigson
On: 2/23/2012 1:07:00 PM		 Thanks Matt. I try.
 

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