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ADP Watch for Some Old Faces in New Places

We hear it all the time in sports – this guy would benefit from a change of scenery. But is that always the case? Maybe if the guy is disgruntled, it is. Should he not get along with the coach, his teammates or just isn’t a good fit for the offensive or defensive schemes then sure, a change of scenery is probably best. But in this day and age of free agency and players moving around mostly for the money, change is always for the better.

Today we’re going to take a look at the top 20 offensive players with new addresses and see how the change of scenery is perceived by the general public and the fantasy football writers out there via the ADP rankings. We’ll look at their ADP from 2012*, their current ADP as per the public and then their current ADP as per the experts. Some of the numbers you might find surprising while others might seem dead on. Either way, public perception and speculation obviously shapes the ADP rankings and until these guys get into camp, that’s all we have to go on right now.

Player Pos Team 2012 ADP 2013 ADP Difference Expert ADP







Steven Jackson RB ATL 33.21 18.67 14.54 24.00
Mike Wallace WR MIA 42.50 49.67 -7.17 54.50
Danny Amendola WR NE 142.02 52.00 90.02 64.50
Percy Harvin WR SEA 47.17 56.00 -8.83 41.50
Greg Jennings WR MIN 28.91 56.00 -27.09 71.50
Wes Welker WR DEN 23.34 58.00 -34.66 50.00
Rashard Mendenhall RB ARI 131.00 61.00 70.00 82.00
Reggie Bush RB DET 53.86 62.67 -8.81 54.00
Chris Ivory RB NYJ ND 69.00 N/A 69.00
Mike Goodson RB NYJ 184.31 106.67 77.64 270.00
Anquan Boldin WR SF 108.09 109.00 -0.91 113.50
Shonn Greene RB TEN 70.16 112.33 -42.17 264.00
Martellus Bennett TE CHI 171.97 117.33 54.64 336.00
Carson Palmer QB ARI 142.66 118.67 23.99 128.00
Brandon Myers TE NYG ND 130.00 N/A 157.50
Ahmad Bradshaw RB IND 42.98 131.33 -88.35 216.00
Jared Cook TE STL 128.69 140.33 -11.64 134.00
Darrius Heyward-Bey WR IND 111.70 150.33 -38.63 262.00
Alex Smith QB KC 148.30 ND N/A 147.50
Matt Flynn QB OAK 177.16 ND N/A 236.00

Risers

Age and injury history be damned as Steven Jackson’s move from St. Louis to Atlanta is being perceived as a serious upgrade. Obviously it’s the strength of the passing game which fantasy owners must feel will help lighten his workload and preserve his health, coupled with the hope that he’ll see more red zone touches in a more high-octane offense. But while yes, the Falcons offense is a bigger point producer, Jackson didn’t have a particularly heavy workload to begin with last year. In 2012 he average just 16 carries per game with only four games of 20 or more carries, so it’s not like they were running him into the ground or anything. Everyone has him as a second-round pick, but we’ll have to watch that ADP the closer we get to the start of the season.

The data collected here was actually in before the whole Aaron Hernandez scandal, but the news of Rob Gronkowski’s surgery was already known. How the Hernandez news affects Danny Amendola’s is yet to be seen, but for now, his move to New England has vaulted him up the ADP charts in a hurry. With rookie Andre Dobson and an underwhelming Michael Jenkins as the complementary receivers, Amendola is going to be Tom Brady’s number one guy and should be a beast in both PPR and standard leagues. Even if people assume that the loss of Hernandez will hurt Amendola’s value, he’s still going to be highly coveted. It’s not like defenses are just going to shadow him and chance it with the others.

Last season’s comeback attempt from a torn ACL was a bust for Rashard Mendenhall, but now a full year (and then some)  removed from the surgery and with a reunion with former coordinator Bruce Arians, he is being viewed by many as the new lead back in Arizona. He hasn’t won the job, mind you, but apparently no one has any faith in Ryan Williams or rookie Stepfan Taylor to earn the job. Arians said he doesn’t want to split carries between backs, so should Mendenhall step up early in camp, his ADP could climb even higher.

The fact that Mike Goodson is still listed here shows you how early a look at ADP this is. For those who don’t know, Goodson was brought up on drug charges back in May. He should be ignored which obviously then bumps up the value of Chris Ivory.

The Bears got virtually no offensive production out of their tight ends last year and opted to lure Martellus Bennett out of New York to give Jay Cutler someone besides Brandon Marshall to throw the ball to. He should see an increase in targets, for sure, but whether or not he can hold onto the ball regularly is up to him. Should he build a solid preseason rapport with Cutler, you can probably expect to see an increase in ADP given the sudden lack of top-tier options at the position.

And finally, Carson Palmer sees a bump from where he was last year now that he has Larry Fitzgerald to throw to. Tight end Rob Housler is a pretty decent target as well. However, it all comes down to the protection from the offensive line and if memory serves, it wasn’t so good in Arizona last year.

Fallers

Greg Jennings is not only working his way back from an injury, but he certainly downgrades in quarterback. That’s not to say that Christian Ponder doesn’t have his merits, but he’s no Aaron Rodgers.

It seems like everyone is down on Wes Welker now that he’s left New England and it’s hard not to agree with the public perception. After all, Peyton Manning spent all of last year building a rapport with Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas and they all managed to produce some outstanding point totals. With Welker in the mix, not only will he not see as many targets as he saw with the Patriots last year, but the other guys are likely to suffer as well. Welker’s ADP may not drop much further, but keep an eye on the ADP of the other two.

The fact that Shonn Greene’s ADP takes a hit isn’t much of a surprise as he goes from being the main back in New York to Chris Johnson’s back-up in Tennessee. He’ll likely see some carries between the tackles, but it’s hard not to imagine Johnson getting the majority of touches in this backfield.

Ahmad Bradshaw has battled injuries the last two years but is apparently healthy now and ready to take over as the primary back in Indianapolis. These early numbers are from before he signed on to play for the Colts, so get ready to watch him climb. Conversely, watch Vick Ballard’s ADP start to drop now.

And lastly, but sticking with the Colts, we’ve got Darrius Heyward-Bey whose ADP has dropped with the move to Indy. With Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton and tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener all having worked with Andrew Luck last season, it’s going to be difficult for DHB to break into the lineup and steal his quarterback’s attention.

*2012 ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

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