ADP Differentials Between Standard and PPR Scoring -- Wide Receivers
We’re going to continue today with our comparative look at the ADP for each position between standard scoring leagues and leagues with a points per reception format. We covered the running backs the other day and saw which players were more heavily favored in drafts of each style of scoring, so it’s onto the wide receivers.
The following table lists all wide receivers found in the combined top 150 of the ADP rankings for both standard and PPR scoring with the differential column showing a positive for players who go higher in PPR play and a negative for those taken earlier in a standard Scoring league.
As a quick side note for those drafting on the fly: One of the ways to differentiate between which receivers are more valuable in a PPR format than in a standard league is to identify which receiver on the team is more of a possession receiver and which is generally used mostly as the deep threat. You can look at statistics like target percentage and number of receptions and that should shed some light on the answer. While there are likely to be some exceptions, particularly on teams that aren’t as reliant on the passing game, the use of those statistics will at least give you a rough guideline.
Wes Welker, DEN (+28.84) – He’s been one of the best, most reliable possession receivers in the game over the last few years, working as Tom Brady’s go-to guy. But his stock may slip this year (something we’ll be tracking throughout this series of ADP articles) as he now resides in Denver, competing for targets with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Training camp and a couple of preseason games may shed some light on the potential distribution of targets, but once the ball is in Peyton Manning’s hand, you never really know which guy is getting the ball.
Reggie Wayne, IND (+26.46) – The veteran Colts receiver was the second most targeted wideout in all of football last year behind only Calvin Johnson. Starting quarterback Andrew Luck made the very wise decision to choose Wayne to lean on and the two hooked up a total of 106 times for 1,355 yards and five touchdowns. At 34-years old, Wayne may have lost a step, but he should still be Luck’s favorite target and still a strong asset in PPR leagues.
Brian Hartline, MIA (+25.08) – While Hartline posted career-highs in both receptions and receiving yards, he found his way into the endzone just once last season. He’s a much better asset in PPR leagues due to the high number of targets, but his lack of red zone looks and the addition of Mike Wallace to the receiving corps will probably reduce that number a bit as well. He should still be Ryan Tannehill’s go-to guy on third downs, but he’s now more of a flex option as opposed to even a WR3.
Percy Harvin, SEA (+25.08) – The move to Seattle looked like it was going to be a great thing for Harvin, and it still might be, but for now, it’s about playing the waiting game as we wait to hear the details on a potentially torn hip labrum and the possible need for surgery. The first doctor he saw said that surgery would not be required but he is going to get a second opinion (likely one not affiliated with the Seahawks) to be completely sure. Surgery would probably put his entire season in doubt.
Miles Austin, DAL (+17.34) – While Austin remained healthy last season, he still saw the same reduced role he had in the two previous seasons where he’s taken a back seat in red zone targets to both Jason Witten and Dez Bryant. He can still go deep for a shot at the endzone but Austin has been used more as a possession receiver than the deep threat he was back in 2009. You’ll love having him as a WR2 (possibly even as a WR3) in a PPR format, but not as much in a standard format.
Wide receivers taken in the top 150 of NFFC draft but not in standard play include: Aaron Dobson, Corderrelle Patterson, Chris Givens, DeAndre Hopkins, Kendall Wright, and Vincent Brown
Sidney Rice, SEA (-38.47) – Well, the Harvin injury is sure to have an impact here as Rice is likely to see an increase in targets. In truth, the biggest impact should come for Golden Tate who moves up the depth chart. But Rice worked very well with Russell Wilson last year and the relationship should blossom even more now that the QB has grown more comfortable in his role. Rice should continue to be a more popular pick in standard leagues, but perhaps after a few weeks of camp, his ADP should climb more in PPR leagues.
Mike Williams, TB (-18.01) – While he may not see the number of targets Vincent Jackson sees, Williams gets plenty of work on his own, as evidenced by his 63-catch, 996-yard, nine-touchdown season last year. He can make clutch third down catches and has proven to be a nice deep threat as well. If he saw even just two or three extra targets a game, he be going the same in both standard and PPR play.
Danario Alexander, SD (-18.01) – He became the new deep threat in San Diego late last year and was one of the top second half free agents for fantasy owners. The number of targets he sees is limited, but he does make the most of what he gets which is why he’s a both more friendly in standard and even touchdown leagues.
Denarius Moore, OAK (-17.52) – Moore should actually be an interesting one to watch because a lot can happen once he and Matt Flynn start hooking up regularly in camp. Should they really click, Moore has the ability to be both a possession guy and a deep threat, so should Flynn get on a roll, the value of Moore could jump in any league. For now though, it’s about erring on the side of caution and sticking with what you know which is limited targets and a bit of an injury risk.
Michael Floyd, ARI (-13.57) – He’s been tabbed by a number of pundits as one of the sleepers to have this year. He’s got a new quarterback, a better running game and should prove to be a fantastic complement to Larry Fitzgerald. He’s slightly favored in standard leagues with Fitz seeing the majority of targets, but his value could rise in PPR leagues should Carson Palmer get successfully pass happy.
Wide receivers drafted in standard leagues that did not make it to the NFFC top 150 include: Brian Quick, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Malcom Floyd, Mohamed Sanu and Santonio Holmes--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at email@example.com.