ADP Differentials Between Standard and PPR Scoring -- Tight Ends
We’re going to wrap up our comparison of ADP numbers between standard scoring leagues and PPR leagues today with a fairly quick look at the tight ends. The position is going through a number of changes right now given the injuries to Rob Gronkowski and Dennis Pitta along with the arrest and drama surrounding Aaron Hernandez, and while some folks seem to be reaching for a small handful of tight ends they may deem as elite now, many are simply waiting on the position as so many of these players look like interchangeable parts. We’ll talk individually about some of them, so let’s just get a look at which tight ends have gone in the top 150 so far this year.
The overall ADP numbers say it all – you’ve got two early picks, although one is sure to drop as we continue reviewing data closer to the start of the season, three mid-round choices (with one that is a certainty to drop as well) and then the rest all fall to the wayside and are taken much later in drafts of both scoring styles. The funny thing though, is that several of these “discarded” tight ends have real potential to turn in high-quality seasons as many situations have changed around the NFL with regard to personnel.
Jason Witten, DAL (+23.26) – While his target percentage took a slight decrease last year with the emergence of Dez Bryant, Witten still sees more targets than almost every other tight end. He’s long been a trusted receiver for Tony Romo and while some of his totals have dropped, he’s still a huge target both in and out of the red zone.
Tony Gonzalez, ATL (+10.19) – So depending on the size of your league, we’re looking at just about a round’s worth of picks difference here with Gonzalez. Not a significant margin at all. But still, given the amount of passing Matt Ryan does and the number of actual targets Gonzalez sees nearly every game, his overall value doe stake a nice increase in a PPR format.
Jimmy Graham, NO (+8.68) – When Gronk and Hernandez went down, many were discussing the ADP rise that Graham would take, but in truth, he goes high enough in drafts already and there’s really very little room for him to go up even more. In PPR leagues he’s a late first/early second round and he’s not that much further back in standard leagues. For him to see any significant movement up, people would have to be sacrificing their high-end running backs and elite wideouts and it’s doubtful that anyone is real willing to do that.
Antonio Gates, SD (+6.46) – He’s the last of the real difference-makers between the two scoring styles and even his increase is fairly minimal as Gates has lost a significant number of targets over the past two seasons. Still, even a decreased amount for him is probably a lot closer to a normal share of targets for your basic tight end.
Taken in the Top 150 in NFFC but not in Standard Leagues: Jordan Cameron
Jermaine Gresham, CIN (-29.07) – With A.J. Green in-house, it’s a wonder that anyone else sees a target, but while Gresham might not get a whole lot of looks his way, the ones he does get are usually fruitful for scoring purposes. He’ll see a fair amount of red zone targets throughout the year so rather than building up his score with catches, he’ll be doing it with touchdowns.
Kyle Rudolph, MIN (-16.86) – Similarly to Gresham, Rudolph won’t see the same number of targets as your elite tight ends will see, but he does get a serious number of red zone targets as evidenced by his nine touchdowns with just 493 yards. But keep in mind, with Percy Harvin out of the picture, Rudolph could see a strong increase in targets both in and out of the red zone.
Rob Gronkowski, NE (-16.04) – This is just a matter of those who are drafting in the NFFC, letting Gronk fall further and further due to his injury and expected time missed. With more standard drafts done on Mock Draft Central, you’ll see his ADP start to plummet there as well.
Dennis Pitta, BAL (-13.97) – Word hadn’t broken of Pitta’s injury before I compiled this data, so similarly to Gronk, we should see a significant drop in his ADP across the board.
Sleeper TE Pick: Rob Housler, ARI – He’ll probably serve you better in a standard league as Larry Fitzgerald usually gloms all the targets. But Carson Palmer loves to lean on his tight ends as we saw last season with Brandon Myers, so given his pass-catching skills, Housler could be a great late-round find.
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at firstname.lastname@example.org.