ADP Comparison: NFFC vs MDC
Just as we did with this series for baseball, we’re going to turn to our friends over at Stats Inc., the folks who run the National Fantasy Football Championships (NFFC), and take a look at their ADP rankings. It’s a good way to see how those who are ‘putting their money where their mouths are’ are drafting in comparison to those who seem to be mocking for fun in preparation for their home/work leagues. Without a large number of drafts in at Mock Draft Central, the data is somewhat flawed due to such a small sample size. ADP fluctuation can seem a bit extreme until there are a number of drafts reporting. But with a comparison to the ADP of the NFFC, we can not only see who the experts and or/gamblers like or dislike more than the general public, but also which players’ draft positions will prove to be more predictable as everyone seems to be on the same page. It should make your draft strategy easier to develop and implement.
Before we go to the data, let’s just take a look at a basic overview of the rules for the NFFC. Leagues consist of 14 teams and lineups are pretty basic – 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 team defense. Scoring-wise, it’s 1 point for every 10 rushing or receiving yards, one point for every 20 passing yards, one point per reception, six points for any touchdown (rushing, receiving and passing), and then all the basic stuff like interceptions, fumbles, defensive stuff, etc. The kickers get a bit of a boost as there’s a distance bonus of .10 points for every yard over for successful field goals, i.e. 3 points for a 30 yarder but 4.7 points for a 47 yard field goal. Pretty standard stuff but the one point per reception, six for a passing touchdown and the kicking distance bonuses alter the values in comparison to standard leagues as receivers, pass-catching backs, quarterbacks and, obviously, kickers all get a boost.
So now that the parameters are laid out, let’s take a look at how the first five rounds are shaping up in NFFC mock drafts and how the ADP numbers compare to those we have for PPR leagues on Mock Draft Central.
|Player||Team||Pos||NFFC ADP||MDC ADP||Diff|
It looks as if the move to Detroit for Reggie Bush is being perceived as a positive one in the eyes of the NFFC mockers with more than a two-round differential in comparison to the MDC ADP. The Lions were looking for more consistency out of Mikel Leshoure, but apparently they aren’t convinced that he is capable at this point and brought in the veteran back. Bush is a better pass-catcher, better at taking it to the outside and seems to have better vision when running in space. He’ll start off as the primary back, but expect Leshoure to stay in the mix and be the primary handcuff to the oft-injured Bush.
The differential for Darren Sproles actually surprises me given how valuable the diminutive back has been in PPR leagues. The surprise obviously comes from the fact that his ADP is so comparatively low over at MDC. Maybe the confidence level in Mark Ingram is a little higher in some people’s eyes? Or perhaps it’s the fact that his carries and rushing yards were cut in half. His pass-catching work and receiving touchdowns remained the same, but the drop in rushing attempts really put the squeeze on his overall totals.
Cowboys tight end and longtime favorite target Jason Witten has a significantly higher ADP in NFFC drafts right now, but given the state of the position and the expected vanishing from the ADP ranks for Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, I see him vaulting up the ranks in MDC drafts to an equal level soon enough and taking maybe a slight increase in the NFFC drafts. Tony Romo has certainly developed a major rapport with Dez Bryant, but Witten should still see a significant percentage of the targets.
Bills receiver Steve Johnson is seeing more love in the NFFC but is still a fringe fifth rounder while Percy Harvin has leapt to a late-second round pick with his move to Seattle. It’s not like he wasn’t a primary focal point in the offense in Minnesota, but people seem to have tremendously more faith in Russell Wilson than they do in Christian Ponder.
The ADP of Montee Ball should be an interesting one to track as we move into camp this August. Many people have him as the Broncos number one running back and obviously have no faith in Knowshon Moreno or Lance Ball poaching carries. But as we’ve seen over the last several years, there’s no such thing as a guaranteed starting running back in Denver. We’ve seen a ridiculous number of running backs for this club since the days when Terrell Davis was king and very few of them actually opened the season as the team’s preseason number one. Ball certainly has outstanding skills and can excel at this level, but much like Alfred Morris in Washington last season, I’ll need to see it for a few consecutive weeks before I believe anything.
Russell Wilson is one of those guys who the public just seems to latch onto and refuses to let go. He was a relative unknown as the season began with Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck garnering much of the rookie spotlight, but as time went on and he started leading the Seahawks towards the playoffs, he slowly became the hottest free agent pick-up and eventually a late-season playoff savior for many fantasy owners. But is he going to continue that trend? Those in the NFFC aren’t so sure. He’s got a big-time receiver in Percy Harvin now and the Seahawks have maintained the majority of last season’s offense, so improvement seems probable. But I suppose we’ll just have to wait and see.
The 49ers struck gold last year with Colin Kaepernick at the helm and with his ability to run the ball and his affinity for poaching touchdowns near the goal line, he’s likely to put up some serious points. However, he’s also lost his number one wide receiver Michael Crabtree and defenses learned quickly how to take his second favorite, Vernon Davis, out of the passing game as well. While he should be considered more valuable than say, Russell Wilson, the fact that there are six points for a passing touchdown coupled with him being without his top targets which could lead to a drop in passing scores, his added value from his legs gets neutralized.
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at email@example.com.