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ADP Comparison: NFFC vs MDC

Just as we did with this series for baseball, we’re going to turn to our friends over at Stats Inc., the folks who run the National Fantasy Football Championships (NFFC), and take a look at their ADP rankings. It’s a good way to see how those who are ‘putting their money where their mouths are’ are drafting in comparison to those who seem to be mocking for fun in preparation for their home/work leagues. Without a large number of drafts in at Mock Draft Central, the data is somewhat flawed due to such a small sample size. ADP fluctuation can seem a bit extreme until there are a number of drafts reporting. But with a comparison to the ADP of the NFFC, we can not only see who the experts and or/gamblers like or dislike more than the general public, but also which players’ draft positions will prove to be more predictable as everyone seems to be on the same page. It should make your draft strategy easier to develop and implement.

Before we go to the data, let’s just take a look at a basic overview of the rules for the NFFC. Leagues consist of 14 teams and lineups are pretty basic – 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 team defense. Scoring-wise, it’s 1 point for every 10 rushing or receiving yards, one point for every 20 passing yards, one point per reception, six points for any touchdown (rushing, receiving and passing), and then all the basic stuff like interceptions, fumbles, defensive stuff, etc. The kickers get a bit of a boost as there’s a distance bonus  of .10 points for every yard over for successful field goals, i.e. 3 points for a 30 yarder but 4.7 points for a 47 yard field goal. Pretty standard stuff but the one point per reception, six for a passing touchdown and the kicking distance bonuses alter the values in comparison to standard leagues as receivers, pass-catching backs, quarterbacks and, obviously, kickers all get a boost.

So now that the parameters are laid out, let’s take a look at how the first five rounds are shaping up in NFFC mock drafts and how the ADP numbers compare to those we have for PPR leagues on Mock Draft Central.

Player Team Pos NFFC ADP MDC ADP Diff
Adrian Peterson MIN RB 1.61 1.00 -0.61
Doug Martin TB RB 2.25 3.00 0.75
Calvin Johnson DET WR 3.29 6.00 2.71
Arian Foster HOU RB 3.64 2.00 -1.64
Jamaal Charles KC RB 4.96 9.00 4.04
C.J. Spiller BUF RB 7.43 8.00 0.57
Ray Rice BAL RB 7.82 12.00 4.18
Trent Richardson CLE RB 8.32 7.00 -1.32
LeSean McCoy PHI RB 9.11 19.00 9.89
Marshawn Lynch SEA RB 11.14 5.00 -6.14
A.J. Green CIN WR 11.64 16.00 4.36
Brandon Marshall CHI WR 11.96 15.00 3.04
Dez Bryant DAL WR 14.32 13.00 -1.32
Julio Jones ATL WR 15.46 18.00 2.54
Alfred Morris WAS RB 15.82 9.00 -6.82
Matt Forte CHI RB 16.18 24.00 7.82
Aaron Rodgers GB QB 17.61 10.00 -7.61
Drew Brees NO QB 18.00 11.00 -7.00
Jimmy Graham NO TE 18.89 35.00 16.11
Demaryius Thomas DEN WR 19.18 29.00 9.82
Steven Jackson ATL RB 20.39 19.00 -1.39
Chris Johnson TEN RB 23.50 28.00 4.50
Andre Johnson HOU WR 26.50 22.00 -4.50
Darren McFadden OAK RB 26.75 45.00 18.25
Reggie Bush DET RB 27.00 64.00 37.00
Percy Harvin SEA WR 27.14 56.00 28.86
Maurice Jones-Drew JAC RB 28.07 22.00 -6.07
Darren Sproles NO RB 28.11 65.00 36.89
Randall Cobb GB WR 29.00 46.00 17.00
Peyton Manning DEN QB 29.14 16.00 -13.14
Roddy White ATL WR 30.25 33.00 2.75
DeMarco Murray DAL RB 30.29 42.00 11.71
Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 31.14 20.00 -11.14
Victor Cruz NYG WR 36.75 43.00 6.25
David Wilson NYG RB 36.93 40.00 3.07
Tom Brady NE QB 38.04 38.00 -0.04
Frank Gore SF RB 38.14 31.00 -7.14
Wes Welker DEN WR 39.29 58.00 18.71
Stevan Ridley NE RB 40.11 27.00 -13.11
Vincent Jackson TB WR 40.25 30.00 -10.25
Rob Gronkowski NE TE 41.25 26.00 -15.25
Jordy Nelson GB WR 43.61 47.00 3.39
Reggie Wayne IND WR 44.29 63.00 18.71
Dwayne Bowe KC WR 47.50 41.00 -6.50
Marques Colston NO WR 47.86 62.00 14.14
Danny Amendola NE WR 48.04 52.00 3.96
Lamar Miller MIA RB 48.43 38.00 -10.43
Ryan Mathews SD RB 48.64 54.00 5.36
Matt Ryan ATL QB 49.25 32.00 -17.25
Hakeem Nicks NYG WR 49.32 44.00 -5.32
Cam Newton CAR QB 49.96 36.00 -13.96
Eric Decker DEN WR 51.07 52.00 0.93
Jason Witten DAL TE 54.39 86.00 31.61
Montee Ball DEN RB 60.00 28.00 -32.00
Antonio Brown PIT WR 60.57 74.00 13.43
Tony Gonzalez ATL TE 61.75 79.00 17.25
Mike Wallace MIA WR 61.93 51.00 -10.93
Colin Kaepernick SF QB 63.46 42.00 -21.46
Pierre Garcon WAS WR 63.82 66.00 2.18
Russell Wilson SEA QB 66.11 37.00 -29.11
Steve Smith CAR WR 66.25 83.00 16.75
Matthew Stafford DET QB 67.00 70.00 3.00
Eddie Lacy GB RB 67.50 75.00 7.50
James Jones GB WR 68.25 57.00 -11.25
Aaron Hernandez NE TE 68.44 53.00 -15.44
Greg Jennings MIN WR 69.32 55.00 -14.32
Andrew Luck IND QB 71.18 71.00 -0.18
Torrey Smith BAL WR 71.25 75.00 3.75
Stevie Johnson BUF WR 72.21 102.00 29.79
Tony Romo DAL QB 72.93 69.00 -3.93

The NFFC loves:

It looks as if the move to Detroit for Reggie Bush is being perceived as a positive one in the eyes of the NFFC mockers with more than a two-round differential in comparison to the MDC ADP. The Lions were looking for more consistency out of Mikel Leshoure, but apparently they aren’t convinced that he is capable at this point and brought in the veteran back. Bush is a better pass-catcher, better at taking it to the outside and seems to have better vision when running in space. He’ll start off as the primary back, but expect Leshoure to stay in the mix and be the primary handcuff to the oft-injured Bush.

The differential for Darren Sproles actually surprises me given how valuable the diminutive back has been in PPR leagues. The surprise obviously comes from the fact that his ADP is so comparatively low over at MDC. Maybe the confidence level in Mark Ingram is a little higher in some people’s eyes? Or perhaps it’s the fact that his carries and rushing yards were cut in half. His pass-catching work and receiving touchdowns remained the same, but the drop in rushing attempts really put the squeeze on his overall totals.

Cowboys tight end and longtime favorite target Jason Witten has a significantly higher ADP in NFFC drafts right now, but given the state of the position and the expected vanishing from the ADP ranks for Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, I see him vaulting up the ranks in MDC drafts to an equal level soon enough and taking maybe a slight increase in the NFFC drafts. Tony Romo has certainly developed a major rapport with Dez Bryant, but Witten should still see a significant percentage of the targets.

Bills receiver Steve Johnson is seeing more love in the NFFC but is still a fringe fifth rounder while Percy Harvin has leapt to a late-second round pick with his move to Seattle. It’s not like he wasn’t a primary focal point in the offense in Minnesota, but people seem to have tremendously more faith in Russell Wilson than they do in Christian Ponder.

Us regular folk are fonder of:

The ADP of Montee Ball should be an interesting one to track as we move into camp this August. Many people have him as the Broncos number one running back and obviously have no faith in Knowshon Moreno or Lance Ball poaching carries. But as we’ve seen over the last several years, there’s no such thing as a guaranteed starting running back in Denver. We’ve seen a ridiculous number of running backs for this club since the days when Terrell Davis was king and very few of them actually opened the season as the team’s preseason number one. Ball certainly has outstanding skills and can excel at this level, but much like Alfred Morris in Washington last season, I’ll need to see it for a few consecutive weeks before I believe anything.

Russell Wilson is one of those guys who the public just seems to latch onto and refuses to let go. He was a relative unknown as the season began with Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck garnering much of the rookie spotlight, but as time went on and he started leading the Seahawks towards the playoffs, he slowly became the hottest free agent pick-up and eventually a late-season playoff savior for many fantasy owners. But is he going to continue that trend? Those in the NFFC aren’t so sure. He’s got a big-time receiver in Percy Harvin now and the Seahawks have maintained the majority of last season’s offense, so improvement seems probable. But I suppose we’ll just have to wait and see.

The 49ers struck gold last year with Colin Kaepernick at the helm and with his ability to run the ball and his affinity for poaching touchdowns near the goal line, he’s likely to put up some serious points. However, he’s also lost his number one wide receiver Michael Crabtree and defenses learned quickly how to take his second favorite, Vernon Davis, out of the passing game as well. While he should be considered more valuable than say, Russell Wilson, the fact that there are six points for a passing touchdown coupled with him being without his top targets which could lead to a drop in passing scores, his added value from his legs gets neutralized.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

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