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ADP Analysis of the Mock Draft Army's First Draft -- Part 2

For those of you just joining our program, allow me to re-direct you to the article from Wednesday where we introduced you to the Mock Draft Army, a rotating group of fantasy baseball writers looking to provide you with legitimate mock drafts to help you in your draft prep. The Army had its first draft last Tuesday, a 28-round, standard 5x5 mixed league draft consisting of seven writers and five readers and we started to bring you some ADP analysis as a way to understand some of the rising and falling trends we’ve been witnessing over the last several weeks.

In that piece, we covered most of the first half of the draft – two four-round blocks to be exact. We compared those draft numbers with the ADP data from the NFBC mock drafts and found some pretty interesting things, but in truth, nothing so outlandish that you would consider your mind blown. Although, David Wiers’ first three picks were definitely unconventional, so maybe I’m underestimating what constitutes a blown mind these days.

Today we’re going to look at the latter part of the draft. While the first four rounds of any draft are crucial and then those middle four are key for building of your foundation, it is the back end of your draft that separates the proverbial men from the boys. The second part of your draft is where you start pulling in more of your sleeper picks and those role players upon whom you rely to out-produce their draft position and help guide you to your championship. Some people consider these picks to be low-risk and therefore take some odd chances, but in my opinion, I feel that you can, with the proper research, methodically pick up useful parts for your team and relish in the fact that your 21st round pick was deemed just as important as your 12th rounder.

So today we’re looking at rounds 17-20 and 25-28. We’re going to compare some ADP rankings and see who continues to slip through and whether or not there are players on the rise…in popularity, that is… for whom you’re going to need to act faster on in order to obtain their services this season. You should be able to find plenty of useful information here that should help guide you towards a more productive back-end of your draft. If you need to see the full draft, just click here.

Rounds 17-20

Player Pos Team Drafted NFBC ADP % Diff
Carlos Ruiz C PHI 193 203.07 5.22%
Todd Frazier 1B,3B CIN 194 162.64 -16.16%
A.J. Burnett SP PIT 195 210.65 8.03%
Erick Aybar SS LAA 196 150.45 -23.24%
J.P. Arencibia C TOR 197 224.51 13.96%
Ernesto Frieri RP LAA 198 231.33 16.83%
Dayan Viciedo OF CHW 199 204.83 2.93%
Brett Anderson SP OAK 200 165.01 -17.50%
Drew Stubbs OF CLE 201 254.02 26.38%
Rafael Betancourt RP COL 202 193.99 -3.97%
A.J. Pierzynski C TEX 203 177.87 -12.38%
Kenley Jansen RP LAD 204 170.67 -16.34%
Brett Gardner OF NYY 205 169.84 -17.15%
Matt Harvey SP NYM 206 151.30 -26.55%
Jean Segura SS MIL 207 250.51 21.02%
Shaun Marcum SP NYM 208 276.91 33.13%
Manny Machado 3B BAL 209 183.37 -12.26%
Huston Street RP SD 210 168.64 -19.70%
Carlos Gomez OF MIL 211 122.64 -41.88%
Addison Reed RP CHW 212 171.53 -19.09%
Brandon League RP LAD 213 213.09 0.04%
Tim Hudson SP ATL 214 253.78 18.59%
Lorenzo Cain OF KC 215 219.08 1.90%
Michael Cuddyer OF COL 216 165.96 -23.17%
Brandon Moss 1B OAK 217 281.63 29.78%
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C BOS 218 246.63 13.13%
Sean Marshall RP CIN 219 413.05 88.61%
Justin Morneau 1B MIN 220 189.19 -14.00%
Nick Markakis OF BAL 221 151.66 -31.38%
Lance Lynn SP STL 222 195.85 -11.78%
Mike Morse OF SEA 223 129.66 -41.86%
Wade Miley SP ARI 224 221.48 -1.13%
Mark Reynolds 1B CLE 225 289.78 28.79%
Trevor Cahill SP ARI 226 240.15 6.26%
Hisashi Iwakuma SP SEA 227 285.12 25.60%
Michael Fiers SP MIL 228 244.46 7.22%
Adam Eaton OF ARI 229 225.82 -1.39%
Justin Ruggiano OF MIA 230 273.57 18.94%
Kelly Johnson 2B TB 231 309.30 33.90%
Kyle Lohse SP STL 232 253.94 9.46%
Marco Scutaro 2B SF 233 200.29 -14.04%
Brian Roberts 2B BAL 234 400.52 71.16%
Wil Myers OF TB 235 223.31 -4.97%
Kyuji Fujikawa RP CHC 236 272.40 15.42%
Dexter Fowler OF COL 237 198.97 -16.05%
Derek Holland SP TEX 238 261.24 9.76%
Michael Young 3B PHI 239 228.06 -4.58%
Clay Buchholz SP BOS 240 305.45 27.27%

What? Too Soon?

Unless you’re talking about a mixed league that counts holds as a category or an AL or NL-only format, I’m not a fan of taking middle relievers unless there’s something in the news that indicates they will somehow be in the mix for saves or eventually move into the closer’s role. The situations with respect to both L.A.-based teams comes to mind. But in the case that I’m looking at, this incredible reach of Sean Marshall in the 19th round, I just don’t get it. Will Jonathan Broxton hold the job for the Reds all year? I can’t say with any degree of certainty. But the fact remains that he is the closer and will be for the foreseeable future. Yes, Marshall can help stabilize your ratios, but with so much value still on the board and the fact that Marshall could have easily been plucked off the waiver wire during the season, this pick doesn’t make much sense to me.

Second base is thin enough as it is, but with so many flying off the board, you had to expect a few reaches here and there as people tried to build up their depth. So when Kelly Johnson (+33.90%) and Brian Roberts (+71.16%) were picked much higher than their ADP ranks, there wasn’t much surprise. Well, maybe not with Johnson. With Roberts, perhaps a little. I would much rather have someone like Gordon Beckham who still has time to turn his career around and actually showed a bit of growth last season. Roberts’ fantasy life has one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel. I’d be surprised to see him even get 300 at-bats this year.

There are certain instances where a pick may look like a reach, statistically speaking, but in reality, it isn’t. Jean Segura (+21.02%) has solid steals potential, Brandon Moss (+29.78%) could hit 25-plus home runs, Drew Stubbs (+26.38%) is a power/speed threat, and Hisashi Iwakuma (+25.60%) should post some nice ratios – all four statistical reaches, but I see no issue with grabbing them where they went, especially if you’re concerned that you won’t see them available by the time your next pick comes around.

Slipping Too Far?

It’s inevitable. Guys slip through in drafts. It happens all the time. That’s why it’s important to be constantly paying attention and work off your own rankings and not the default ones used on your draft software. Carlos Gomez (-41.88%) stayed on the board for far too long, in my opinion here. If you checked out my article on RotobuzzGuy.com where I discussed my team and gave round by round picks and pans, you know that I was kicking myself for overlooking him. I grabbed Angel Pagan and Alejandro DeAza a few rounds earlier and, truth be told, I would have much preferred Gomez if we were playing this league out.

Matt Harvey (-26.55%) is another one that just seemed to slide on by. He’s someone who I have been targeting a lot this season, but actually made the conscious decision to bypass him in this one. I needed to build up my hitting depth and with numerous pitchers whom I also liked, still sitting on the board, I figured I would wait. While he remains someone I covet, I think it worked out best for me here though.

The outfield still seems plenty deep overall. It’s true that in the first few rounds, the top outfielders come off the board pretty quickly, but in looking at the data from these rounds…come on. Michael Morse (-41.86%), Brett Gardner (-17.15%) and Michael Cuddyer (-23.17%) all slid down the board in this one, and I’m sure that’s not the only time. I’ll have to look into this more during the next draft.

Rounds 25-28

Player Pos Team Drafted NFBC ADP % Diff
Michael Brantley OF CLE 289 305.27 5.63%
Stephen Drew SS BOS 290 282.46 -2.60%
Al Alburquerque RP DET 291 475.17 63.29%
Kevin Youkilis 3B NYY 292 220.11 -24.62%
Chris Young OF OAK 293 298.41 1.85%
Bruce Rondon RP DET 294 244.23 -16.93%
Chad Billingsley SP LAD 295 383.68 30.06%
Matt Carpenter 1B, 3B STL 296 310.65 4.95%
Ervin Santana SP KC 297 397.28 33.76%
Hiroyuki Nakajima SS OAK 298 331.71 11.31%
Wade Davis SP KC 299 343.71 14.95%
Andrew Cashner RP SD 300 342.17 14.06%
Shelby Miller SP STL 301 269.71 -10.40%
Dan Straily SP OAK 302 344.76 14.16%
Patrick Corbin SP ARI 303 500.28 65.11%
David Murphy OF TEX 304 255.81 -15.85%
Domonic Brown OF PHI 305 400.87 31.43%
Peter Bourjos OF LAA 306 303.55 -0.80%
Tommy Hanson SP CLE 307 272.13 -11.36%
Miguel Gonzalez SP BAL 308 389.35 26.41%
Tyler Skaggs SP ARI 309 392.24 26.94%
Mike Olt 1B TEX 310 378.27 22.02%
Cody Ross OF ARI 311 269.46 -13.36%
Jorge De La Rosa SP COL 312 420.39 34.74%
Drew Smyly SP DET 313 346.95 10.85%
Edinson Volquez SP SD 314 326.88 4.10%
Trevor Bauer SP CLE 315 308.43 -2.09%
Paul Maholm SP ATL 316 309.38 -2.09%
Nolan Reimold OF BAL 317 347.02 9.47%
Lance Berkman 1B TEX 318 283.81 -10.75%
David Robertson RP NYY 319 365.67 14.63%
Erasmo Ramirez SP SEA 320 388.78 21.49%
Welington Castillo C CHC 321 342.24 6.62%
Billy Hamilton SS CIN 322 286.09 -11.15%
Jason Vargas SP LAA 323 309.84 -4.07%
Antonio Bastardo RP PHI 324 651.64 101.12%
Cory Luebke SP SD 325 377.08 16.02%
Dylan Bundy SP BAL 326 340.79 4.54%
Robbie Erlin SP SD 327 ND
Justin Maxwell OF HOU 328 315.40 -3.84%
Darin Mastroianni OF MIN 329 342.27 4.03%
Ryan Madson RP LAA 330 232.68 -29.49%
Lonnie Chisenhall 3B CLE 331 332.87 0.56%
Zack Cozart SS CIN 332 269.22 -18.91%
Brandon Beachy SP ATL 333 353.80 6.25%
Vance Worley SP MIN 334 361.48 8.23%
Jose Veras RP HOU 335 343.99 2.68%
Gregor Blanco OF SF 336 410.38 22.14%

Now obviously, with these being the final four rounds of the draft, there’s no such thing as a reach at this point. I mean, really, how much of a reach is it when you grab a guy in the last round? If you’re comparing it to NFBC data, of course you’ll see some differentials. Not only are they a 15-team league, but they go two more rounds than we did here.

What I like looking for here are names of forgotten veterans (Jose Veras, Lance Berkman), second and third year players who were once hyped but maybe lost some of their luster (Wade Davis, Zack Cozart), and of course, rookies who may not be on people’s radar. Obviously a guy like Dylan Bundy is on everybody’s radar, but how many people know who Robbie Erlin is?

There are plenty more drafts coming from the Mock Draft Army, so keep an eye out for them. You can follow me on Twitter (@rotobuzzguy) for upcoming dates, find me on Facebook (RotobuzzGuy.com) or you can email me at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com  if you’re really dying to get in on the action. It should prove to be a valuable resource for draft prep, so don’t miss out.

Comments

By: kennruby
On: 3/9/2013 6:59:00 AM
Robbie Erlin picker here. I probably wouldn't normally take a chance on him (I needed a bit more offensive depth), but it was the 28th round and I like the guy. Glad to see I took the only guy not ranked on the NFBC.
 
By: msarvi
On: 3/9/2013 7:47:00 AM
He's #573 ADP. Great pick in the 15 team 50 round leagues at NFBC.
 

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