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ADP Analysis of RotoWire/Yahoo Beat the Experts Draft - Part 3

OK, it’s finally time to wrap up this draft we’ve been looking at since last week. It’s lingered long enough and we’ve got so many more drafts to analyze, particularly my team in the RotoWire Vegas League which was just drafted during our annual company jaunt to Sin City for the MLB All-Star Break. We’ve looked in on the first 10 round of this 15-round 12-team standard league and if you need to catch up, you can look here and here for the first two installments. Today we’re going to look at how everyone rounded out their teams over the final five rounds. We won’t pay much mind to the kickers and defenses, but we’ll look at many of the position players and see if they truly will become the late-round sleepers we were hoping to see.

So let’s jump right into Round 11 and see who went where.

ROUND 11 Pos Team MDC ADP Diff
121 Justin Blackmon WR JAC 82.30 -38.70
122 Mikel Leshoure RB DET 89.30 -32.70
123 Ben Tate RB HOU 134.70 11.70
124 Kendall Wright WR TEN 369.00 245.00
125 Kendall Hunter RB SF ND ---
126 Emmanuel Sanders WR PIT 121.30 -4.70
127 Vick Ballard RB IND 77.00 -50.00
128 Jacquizz Rodgers RB ATL 129.30 1.30
129 Fred Jackson RB BUF 114.70 -14.30
130 Vincent Brown WR SD ND ---
131 Bilal Powell RB NYJ ND ---
132 Mohamed Sanu WR CIN 158.20 26.20

The two most notable ADP differences in this round, the turds in the punchbowl if you will, are found with WR Kendall Wright (+245) and WR Vincent Brown (not even drafted during those mocks represented on the site. Depending on what you think of the Tennessee passing attack and the fact that Kenny Britt and Nate Washington get most of the looks, Wright seems like an over-reach here. There’s definitely a chance that he blossoms into something more, but his draft position still seems a bit high. As for Brown, the fact that he’s gone undrafted in many leagues is an indication that the public has simply forgotten about him. He had a strong finish to the year in 2011 but injuries cost him all of 2012 which keeps him off most people’s radar. I bet he surprises plenty of people this year.

The drops in ADP we see in this round are all easily explained. Justin Blackmon’s four-game suspension to open the year is dropping his value (although possibly by too much), Vick Ballard now has Ahmad Bradshaw to contend with in camp, and Mikel Leshoure now had Reggie Bush leading the Lions’ way.

ROUND 12 Pos Team MDC ADP Diff
133 Randy Bullock K HOU ND ---
134 Cordarrelle Patterson WR MIN 366.00 232.00
135 Carson Palmer QB ARI 125.70 -9.30
136 Joe Flacco QB BAL 99.30 -36.70
137 Malcom Floyd WR SD 220.50 83.50
138 Martellus Bennett TE CHI 214.50 76.50
139 Houston Defense DEF HOU 231.00 92.00
140 Ronnie Hillman RB DEN 146.70 6.70
141 Chris Givens WR STL 276.80 135.80
142 Josh Freeman QB TB 131.70 -10.30
143 Johnathan Franklin RB GB 139.00 -4.00
144 Jermaine Gresham TE CIN 211.50 67.50

Almost everyone in this round has an ADP differential which gives the appearance of a reach, but given the depth of the league and the time differentials between this draft and those that are represented on Mock Draft Central, it’s expected to see many of these ADPs rise. Save for the selection of the Houston kicker, I can’t really disagree that any of these should be at the top of some sort of shopping list.

Rookie Cordarrelle Patterson could see his ADP increase even more should Jerome Simpson remember that he’s…well…Jerome Simpson. As a solid number two behind just Greg Jennings, Patterson should get enough looks to make him a worthwhile selection in the later rounds.

The drops in ADP are obviously the more noticeable. Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco is getting no respect and remains outside the top 10 at the quarterback position. Not many believe in a return to his late-season/fantasy playoff form. Joining Flacco is fellow quarterback Josh Freeman who isn’t often being viewed as a number one either thanks to a late-season slump as well.

ROUND 13 Pos Team MDC ADP Diff
145 Michael Turner RB ATL ND ---
146 Zac Stacy RB STL 121.70 -24.30
147 Cincinnati Defense DEF CIN ND ---
148 Blair Walsh K MIN 165.30 17.30
149 Connor Barth K TB ND ---
150 Michael Bush RB CHI 239.20 89.20
151 Philip Rivers QB SD 105.00 -46.00
152 New England Defense DEF NE 233.20 81.20
153 Ryan Tannehill QB MIA 138.30 -14.70
154 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI 189.80 35.80
155 Rueben Randle WR NYG 426.00 271.00
156 Andy Dalton QB CIN 81.30 -74.70
157 Jon Baldwin WR KC ND ---

While the drops in ADP for the quarterbacks is something we’ve seen continuously in this draft, something that isn’t so easy to see for some is the drop that Zac Stacy. Had this draft taken place a month ago, then Stacy would likely have seen a much earlier selection as many were immediately high on him. But now the faith in Stacy has withered a bit and Daryl Richardson and even Isaiah Pead are garnering earlier looks in drafts as one of them is expected to lead the charge this season – at least for the first few weeks.

Especially when you see what receivers still were available in the next round, you’ll agree that the Reuben Randle pick is a bit of a reach here. His current MDC ADP seems pretty appropriate for a guy who is third and sometimes fourth on the depth chart for overall total catches on his team. He’s got tremendous talent, but with Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks in the, he’s just not going to see the looks everyone is hoping he may get.

ROUND 14 Pos Team MDC ADP Diff
158 Dustin Keller TE MIA 462.00 304.00
159 Pittsburgh Defense DEF PIT 245.20 86.20
160 Phil Dawson K SF 174.30 14.30
161 Brian Hartline WR MIA 375.00 214.00
162 Santonio Holmes WR NYJ 162.00 0.00
163 Daniel Thomas RB MIA 381.00 218.00
164 Arizona Defense DEF ARI ND ---
165 Tampa Bay Defense DEF TB ND ---
166 Greg Zuerlein K STL 177.30 11.30
167 Isaiah Pead RB STL 98.00 -69.00
168 Michael Crabtree WR SF 41.00 -127.00

Which ADP is more accurate for Brian Hartline? Is it the one here in the draft that seems to reflect how often he was used last season or is it the MDC ADP which basically says that with Mike Wallace in town there isn’t a whole lot that will go Hartline’s way. For a standard league, I’m going to say the latter but in a PPR format, I bet Hartline goes a little sooner.

I actually like the Daniel Thomas pick here and feel like his ADP over at MDC is going to continue to climb as well the further we move into mini-camp. There’s a whole lot of faith in Lamar Miller, but he really hasn’t done anything to really convince me. Granted, he sat behind Reggie Bush on the depth chart, but he also sat behind Thomas who appeared to be a better complementary back when he was healthy.

As you can see in this draft, it’s Richardson and not Pead whom the masses feel will push Stacy to more of a back-up/complementary role. Keep a close watch on their ADPs this summer as they should fluctuate early on but get closer to revealing the better (or maybe I should just say more optimistic.

ROUND 15 Pos Team MDC ADP Diff
169 Justin Tucker K BAL 173.30 4.30
170 Pierre Thomas RB NO 211.50 41.50
171 Quinton Patton WR SF ND ---
172 Ryan Broyles WR DET 432.00 260.00
173 Brandon Myers TE NYG 149.70 -23.30
174 Matt Prater K DEN 172.00 -2.00
175 Baltimore Defense DEF BAL 232.50 57.50
176 Jason Hanson K DET ND ---
177 Green Bay Defense DEF GB 255.80 78.80
178 St. Louis Defense DEF STL ND ---
179 Josh Brown K NYG ND ---
180 Minnesota Defense DEF MIN ND ---

Kickers and defenses dominate this final round, as the y should, but there are still a pair of notable sleepers that I happen to be pretty high on. Quinton Patton has already ingratiated himself with coach Jim Harbaugh thanks to an over-eager, gung-ho attitude, and Ryan Broyles who did such a great job once the Lions rid themselves of Titus Young. I could see both moving up, although it would certainly kill the net value.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

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