ADP Analysis of RotoWire/Yahoo Beat the Experts Draft - Part 3
OK, it’s finally time to wrap up this draft we’ve been looking at since last week. It’s lingered long enough and we’ve got so many more drafts to analyze, particularly my team in the RotoWire Vegas League which was just drafted during our annual company jaunt to Sin City for the MLB All-Star Break. We’ve looked in on the first 10 round of this 15-round 12-team standard league and if you need to catch up, you can look here and here for the first two installments. Today we’re going to look at how everyone rounded out their teams over the final five rounds. We won’t pay much mind to the kickers and defenses, but we’ll look at many of the position players and see if they truly will become the late-round sleepers we were hoping to see.
|ROUND 11||Pos||Team||MDC ADP||Diff|
The two most notable ADP differences in this round, the turds in the punchbowl if you will, are found with WR Kendall Wright (+245) and WR Vincent Brown (not even drafted during those mocks represented on the site. Depending on what you think of the Tennessee passing attack and the fact that Kenny Britt and Nate Washington get most of the looks, Wright seems like an over-reach here. There’s definitely a chance that he blossoms into something more, but his draft position still seems a bit high. As for Brown, the fact that he’s gone undrafted in many leagues is an indication that the public has simply forgotten about him. He had a strong finish to the year in 2011 but injuries cost him all of 2012 which keeps him off most people’s radar. I bet he surprises plenty of people this year.
The drops in ADP we see in this round are all easily explained. Justin Blackmon’s four-game suspension to open the year is dropping his value (although possibly by too much), Vick Ballard now has Ahmad Bradshaw to contend with in camp, and Mikel Leshoure now had Reggie Bush leading the Lions’ way.
|ROUND 12||Pos||Team||MDC ADP||Diff|
Almost everyone in this round has an ADP differential which gives the appearance of a reach, but given the depth of the league and the time differentials between this draft and those that are represented on Mock Draft Central, it’s expected to see many of these ADPs rise. Save for the selection of the Houston kicker, I can’t really disagree that any of these should be at the top of some sort of shopping list.
Rookie Cordarrelle Patterson could see his ADP increase even more should Jerome Simpson remember that he’s…well…Jerome Simpson. As a solid number two behind just Greg Jennings, Patterson should get enough looks to make him a worthwhile selection in the later rounds.
The drops in ADP are obviously the more noticeable. Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco is getting no respect and remains outside the top 10 at the quarterback position. Not many believe in a return to his late-season/fantasy playoff form. Joining Flacco is fellow quarterback Josh Freeman who isn’t often being viewed as a number one either thanks to a late-season slump as well.
|ROUND 13||Pos||Team||MDC ADP||Diff|
|152||New England Defense||DEF||NE||233.20||81.20|
While the drops in ADP for the quarterbacks is something we’ve seen continuously in this draft, something that isn’t so easy to see for some is the drop that Zac Stacy. Had this draft taken place a month ago, then Stacy would likely have seen a much earlier selection as many were immediately high on him. But now the faith in Stacy has withered a bit and Daryl Richardson and even Isaiah Pead are garnering earlier looks in drafts as one of them is expected to lead the charge this season – at least for the first few weeks.
Especially when you see what receivers still were available in the next round, you’ll agree that the Reuben Randle pick is a bit of a reach here. His current MDC ADP seems pretty appropriate for a guy who is third and sometimes fourth on the depth chart for overall total catches on his team. He’s got tremendous talent, but with Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks in the, he’s just not going to see the looks everyone is hoping he may get.
|ROUND 14||Pos||Team||MDC ADP||Diff|
|165||Tampa Bay Defense||DEF||TB||ND||---|
Which ADP is more accurate for Brian Hartline? Is it the one here in the draft that seems to reflect how often he was used last season or is it the MDC ADP which basically says that with Mike Wallace in town there isn’t a whole lot that will go Hartline’s way. For a standard league, I’m going to say the latter but in a PPR format, I bet Hartline goes a little sooner.
I actually like the Daniel Thomas pick here and feel like his ADP over at MDC is going to continue to climb as well the further we move into mini-camp. There’s a whole lot of faith in Lamar Miller, but he really hasn’t done anything to really convince me. Granted, he sat behind Reggie Bush on the depth chart, but he also sat behind Thomas who appeared to be a better complementary back when he was healthy.
As you can see in this draft, it’s Richardson and not Pead whom the masses feel will push Stacy to more of a back-up/complementary role. Keep a close watch on their ADPs this summer as they should fluctuate early on but get closer to revealing the better (or maybe I should just say more optimistic.
|ROUND 15||Pos||Team||MDC ADP||Diff|
|177||Green Bay Defense||DEF||GB||255.80||78.80|
|178||St. Louis Defense||DEF||STL||ND||---|
Kickers and defenses dominate this final round, as the y should, but there are still a pair of notable sleepers that I happen to be pretty high on. Quinton Patton has already ingratiated himself with coach Jim Harbaugh thanks to an over-eager, gung-ho attitude, and Ryan Broyles who did such a great job once the Lions rid themselves of Titus Young. I could see both moving up, although it would certainly kill the net value.
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at firstname.lastname@example.org.