ADP Analysis of RotoWire/Yahoo Beat the Experts Draft - Part 1
If you’ve been checking in with the RotoWire blog lately, you’ll see that RotoWire and Yahoo have partnered up to bring you a series of fantasy football drafts which will be played out for the season where you get the chance to compete against one of our writers (I’ll show some humility and avoid using the word ‘experts’) in a variety of differently styled leagues. The first such league where 11 (un)lucky readers have volunteered to
lose to compete against yours truly in a 12-team, standard scoring, head to head league completed its draft this week and in an effort to aid those of you who will try your hands against the likes of Chris Liss, Jeff Erickson and Derek Van Riper, I’ll break down our draft and take a look at some of the more interesting ADP trends that are occurring in the fantasy football world right now.
We’ll break this down into three articles so not to oversaturate your brain. Here’s a look at how the first five rounds went:
The scoring, like I said, is pretty standard. You get one point for every 10 yards rushing or receiving, one point per 25 yards passing. Rushing and receiving touchdowns are six points while a passing touchdown is four. Field goals get bonus points for every yard above 30 and the penalties for interceptions and fumbles are your standard negative one and two points respectively.
What I did here was match the picks up with the ADP numbers you have on Mock Draft Central. Because the NFFC is made up of PPR leagues, we’ll skip that for this draft and bring it back once some of the other leagues have formed. We’re going to look at some of the pick differences with respect to the ADP we have and see if we can find some reasoning that goes beyond simple personal preference. I’ll be doing a full write up with some predictions (other than me winning) over on my site, RotobuzzGuy.com, but that will be coming over the weekend. For now, let’s crunch some numbers.
Pretty standard stuff here in the first round with almost no surprises. The first eight picks were, as expected, running backs with a few receivers mixed in at the end. With just four points for a passing touchdown, it comes as little or no surprise that no quarterbacks went this early.
The two picks that, obviously, catch the eye are LeSean McCoy and Brandon Marshall. The faith in a rebound for the Eagles starting back seems pretty strong and there was no hesitation whatsoever in spite of Bryce Brown’s performance last year or the addition of Felix Jones to the roster. McCoy is coming off a down year where he missed four games with a concussion, failed to reach 1,000 yards for the first time in three years and saw his touchdown total go from 20 in 2011 to just five last season. But with Chip Kelly running the show, McCoy will see plenty of work this season.
There’s no doubting Brandon Marshall’s talent and his indispensable role in the Bears offense. He led the league in target percentage and set career-highs in receiving yards (1,508) and touchdowns (11). But he does lose a bit of value without PPR scoring. Not a lot, but just a little.
|ROUND 2||Pos||Team||MDC ADP||Diff|
Similarly to Marshall, Jimmy Graham’s value takes a hit in a non-PPR league. He also saw a reduction in target percentage, yards and scores as defenses were much more intent on containing him after his breakout in 2011. With Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez out of the picture, his overall value within the position rises, but maybe not to the point of a high second-round pick.
The drops for both Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees were expected here. Both are, obviously, elite game-breakers, but with so much depth at the position and just four points for a passing score, waiting on them was, to me, the right move.
Matt Forte, Darren McFadden and Frank Gore may seem like reaches here, but given the lack of depth at the position, coupled with how many backs have already come off the board, the rush to grab a second one was the right way to go.
Randall Cobb, on the other hand, might have been too much of a reach in a non-PPR league. He did an outstanding job last season as he became Rodgers’ go-to guy, but with a healthy Jordy Nelson and red zone darling James Jones running amok, will his value be as high without getting points for catches?
|ROUND 3||Pos||Team||MDC ADP||Diff|
Now that 15 of the first 24 picks were running backs, this is the round where most everyone tries to build up the rest of their squad. Neither Peyton Manning nor Cam Newton should be considered huge bargains here despite the ADP differential and the same goes for Victor Cruz and Percy Harvin appearing as one-round reaches. Sure, both receivers had health issues and saw decreases in their overall numbers but both a primary targets on their respective teams and each should post strong totals.
Is anyone surprised by the drop for Chris Johnson? I didn’t think so.
I am surprised by the major increase for Lamar Miller, though. Sure, he’s atop the depth chart in Miami, but he remains unproven, Daniel Thomas is still in-house, and there’s even been talk of still bringing in a veteran back to help out. Nearly a two-round jump seems a bit high.
|ROUND 4||Pos||Team||MDC ADP||Diff|
Save for Tom Brady dropping to the fourth round for the first time in his starting career, most everyone here was snatched up ahead of their usual ADP rankings. None of the receivers seem like much of a reach here given the way the first three rounds went and while Le’Veon Bell is unproven and has Isaac Redman with whom to contend, the only runner here who seems like he may have gone a bit early is Darren Sproles. Obviously, the lack of carries last year and the non-PPR format here are in play.
|ROUND 5||Pos||Team||MDC ADP||Diff|
Just as Round 4 went, there are few surprises here in Round 5. Four quarterbacks come off the board as we move through the top 10 at the position and Jason Witten, still one of Tony Romo’s favorite targets despite the presence of Dez Bryant, is the lone tight end to go. While it may have nothing to do with ADP, notice the depth at the wide receiver position as the five who come off the board in this round could end up with number-one receiver-like totals.
We’ll cover the rest of the draft and discuss some of the trends we see as people start to round out their squads and even pull in a little bit of depth as well.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at firstname.lastname@example.org.