ROTOWIRE.COM NFL MLB / Minors NBA NHL GOLF RACING    COMMUNITY FORUMS PODCASTS MYROTOWIRE ASK AN EXPERT GAMES

A Very Early Look at Tight End ADP

Despite the latest new that has obviously turned the tight end position completely upside down, we’re going to finish off the skill positions in this early ADP look series and check it out anyway. As I’ve said in the first few pieces, we’re more looking at the ADP numbers than we are the names, so our focus remains primarily on when exactly players at a particular position go in a specific draft. Still, with everything that’s happened, this early look is very much in flux, a work in progress, headed for change – tack on whatever phrase you like. So let’s just get to it.


2013


2012














Player Team ADP
Player Team ADP
Diff.
1 Rob Gronkowski NE 23.00
Jimmy Graham NO 26.56
3.56
2 Jimmy Graham NO 34.00
Rob Gronkowski NE 26.78
-7.22
3 Aaron Hernandez NE 52.00
Antonio Gates SD 63.74
11.74
4 Tony Gonzalez ATL 80.00
Aaron Hernandez NE 68.23
-11.77
5 Dennis Pitta BAL 82.00
Jason Witten DAL 75.63
-6.37
6 Jason Witten DAL 84.00
Vernon Davis SF 77.21
-6.79
7 Kyle Rudolph MIN 88.00
Jermichael Finley GB 82.88
-5.12
8 Vernon Davis SF 99.00
Fred Davis WAS 83.23
-15.77
9 Greg Olsen CAR 108.00
Brandon Pettigrew DET 100.54
-7.46
10 Jermichael Finley GB 109.00
Jermaine Gresham CIN 102.89
-6.11
11 Martellus Bennett CHI 116.00
Jared Cook TEN 107.64
-8.36
12 Brandon Myers NYG 130.00
Brent Celek PHI 116.16
-13.84
13 Jermaine Gresham CIN 131.00
Tony Gonzalez ATL 117.92
-13.08
14 Jared Cook STL 140.00
Owen Daniels HOU 121.58
-18.42
15 Owen Daniels HOU 144.00
Dustin Keller NYJ 127.09
-16.91
16 Brandon Pettigrew DET 147.00
Kellen Winslow SEA 131.28
-15.72
17 Rob Housler ARI 150.00
Coby Fleener IND 138.57
-11.43
18 Antonio Gates SD 152.00
Greg Olsen CAR 145.38
-6.62
19 Jordan Cameron CLE 284.00
Jacob Tamme DEN 151.06
-132.94
20 Dustin Keller MIA 308.00
Martellus Bennett NYG 173.04
-134.96

OK, so maybe you’re so focused on baseball that you haven’t even heard the news. If that’s the case, then here you go, in a nutshell: Aaron Hernandez – murder investigation, arrested, released by Patriots, bail denied. Apparently the judge said that while the case was circumstantial, it is still very strong. You can follow all the gory details here.

So now, between this and the fact that Rob Gronkowski had both back and arm surgery and will open camp on the PUP list, two of the top three tight ends are already gone. The position was definitely taking a turn for the better over the last few seasons, but without two of the top playmakers at the position, it’s going to be very difficult to justify taking anyone but Jimmy Graham within the top 50 overall. It’s not like two are gone and two others are going to step up. Sure, they’ll be ranked higher amongst their fellow tight ends, but their ADP is unlikely to improve. And as you can see by the above numbers in the differential column, none but two of the top three are being taken earlier this year than they were last.

Until we start seeing how the public responds in the mock draft circuit, it’s going to be difficult to see exactly where we should be taking some of these less-exciting tight ends. Obviously, without much in the way of big playmakers, the appeal of this position is taking a nosedive. In fact, unless we start seeing a few guys step up more in camp, the position could end up a throw-away as it was before guys like Antonio Gates showed up on the scene.

Food for Thought:

There’s been plenty of chatter in the Bay Area regarding Vernon Davis and the role he needs to take with the team this year now that Michael Crabtree is gone until at least December with a ruptured Achilles tendon. Many still have him locked in his usual role as he is as strong a blocker as he is a pass-catcher, but there is also growing speculation that the team could start lining him up more as a wide receiver. It could just be conjecture from the Niner-hopefuls out there, but it also might be something the team considers worth watching. Should he start seeing added opportunities as a wideout, he should have a nice increase in overall value.

Last season, Jason Witten and Greg Olsen had the two highest target percentages of all tight ends. But with so much focus turning towards Dez Bryant, how much will the usually solid relationship between Tony Romo and Witten suffer? And will Olsen continue to get the looks he saw last year? The Panthers still have Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell, but they also brought in Domenik Hixon and Tedd Ginn.

In Minnesota, going from Percy Harvin to Greg Jennings is probably considered a step down. Will that turn out to be an increase in work for Kyle Rudolph? He was a favorite target, particularly in the red zone, for Christian Ponder early on in the season. Could this be the year he breaks out even more?

Some old faces in new places here – Brandon Myers heads to New York where he hopes to be a viable alternative when defenses start keying in on Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz; Jared Cook is still a bit of a sleeper and now that Sam Bradford doesn’t have Danny Amendola to focus on, he could become a primary target for the young quarterback; Martellus Bennett heads to Chicago as the team was in need of a better pass-catcher ; Dustin Keller leaves the pitiful Jets and heads south to Miami where Ryan Tannehill swears he can throw better than Mark Sanchez.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

Comments

By: rkinigson
On: 6/27/2013 8:03:00 PM
You have to expect the Graham's ADP climbs due to even greater position scarcity. Conversely, all other TE's may fall as owners simply wait to pick one from the pack, as with kickers.

Related solely to the TE (and WR issues) in New England, how do you see the ADP of other Patriots (Brady, Ridley, Amendola, Gostkowski) being impacted?
 
By: Howard Bender
On: 6/30/2013 4:52:00 PM
@rkinigson -- Considering where Graham goes anyway, as high as late 1st round in PPR last year, it's hard for him to really climb much. Maybe you could argue him into the top 10, but it doesn't really have to do with how thin the TE position. Other tight ends, yes, they'll likely drop becuase of how interchangeable they really are.

I expect Brady's ADP to drop without his beloved tight ends. Likely going somewhere along with the back half of the top 10, so maybe 5th or 6th round with guys like Wilson and Luck. I think he'll be an outstanding bargain because with his talent and ability (and mind you as a Jets fan it hurts me to say it) you can put a brand new receiving corps in and he'll be fine. He might start the season a little slower but by the end he'll be putting up his usual point total.

I think Amendola climbs a little being one of the primary targets, if not THE primary target. Bigger jump in PPR leagues.

I think early ADP of Ridley will be higher than once we get closer to the season. It's not the lack of TE why it will drop as much as it is Shane Vereen, Brandon Bolden and even Leon Washington. I think Vereen being a better pass-catching back will be his biggest hindrance.

Gostkowski should go the way of your average kicker.
 

Leave a comment

Commenting is restricted to registered users only. Please register or login now to submit a comment.

Tell Someone

  • Digg it
  • submit to reddit reddit
  • Add to Mixx!

Recent Favorites

What I Think You Should Know About The USMNT
Needless to say, it's been a great World Cup thus far. The USMNT having some success would be awesome.
La-La-La-L.A. Gets Lord Stanley!
Just a few things that caught my eye:
  • Alec Martinez's Cup-winning goal celebration? # priceless. I wonder if he'll ever get his gloves back.
  • Henrik Lundqvist stopped the 50th shot of the game. He couldn't stop the 51st. #connsmythe if the Rangers had found a way to come back in this series.
Do Analytics Take the Fun Out of Sports?
Apparently that was the topic of one of the presentations at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston last week. The presenter, Yale's Edward Tufte, opined:

Don't let people tell you analytics are reductionist and take the joy out of sports. They mostly just take the stupidity out of sports.

Is he right?

RotoWire's AL LABR Squad
The 2014 AL LABR auction went down at the Arizona Republic offices in downtown Phoenix Saturday night. It's a 12-team, 5 x 5, AL-only league with 2 C, 1 1B, 1 2B. 1 3B, 1 SS, 1 CI, 1 MI, 5 OF, 1 U and 9 pitchers. Everyone has $260 to spend.
The Problem With Drafting Billy Hamilton
Billy Hamilton went for $28 in the NL LABR auction this past weekend. I discussed this with a fellow writer who participates in Tout Wars with me later this month and we discussed the problem with investing heavily into Hamilton.

RSS Feeds