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A Late Look At Recent ADP Trends for Quarterbacks

With so many people concerned about running back depth and sleeper wide receivers, the quarterback position continues to quietly ride in the back seat of the draft car. It’s not from a lack of importance, obviously, but most fantasy owners have figured out exactly where to start drafting their quarterbacks. If you’re in a one-quarterback standard or PPR league, it’s ok to wait until the fourth or fifth round before making your move thanks to the depth at the position. Two-quarterback league owners should probably make their move a little earlier as an elite QB can help give you a substantial edge. If you’re in a league that gives six points for a touchdown, the quarterbacks tend to go a little sooner overall and if your league offers up bonus points like five points for 300-plus yards or even a point per completion, you need to elevate their value. Simple, right?

But while yes, it seems pretty simple there’s still a bit of fluctuation in the ADP trend report. Why is that? Another simple answer. With so many different styles of league and different scoring, it’s a near impossibility for the ADP data to account for it all. Of course we wish we could have things more specifically tailored for each of our individual leagues, but it simply cannot happen. The ADP data at Mock Draft Central, for example, doesn’t differentiate between a one or two-quarterback league and therefore a player’s ADP will shift for reasons that have nothing to do with their abilities. If your league has some sort of nuance, you have to make your own adjustments such as the ones seen in the first paragraph. This is one of those moments that I continuously remind you about the fact that ADP is a guideline, not the gospel.

I don’t care what web site you use to get your ADP information, I have yet to see one that offers you an ADP specifically tailored for your style of league. It’s just far too complicated, and let’s face it, any type of league with crazy scoring nuances is going to have far too small a sample size to really provide you with an accurate ADP ranking. I do recommend checking out the ADP for the NFFC, so you can compare the “generic” ADP you see on Mock Draft Central to one specific to that of a 14-team, PPR league where the quarterbacks get six points for a touchdown and one point per 20 yards passing. In fact, I’ve added that column to the MDC ADP Trend report, along with an ADP differential column just so you have a comparison.

Player Team Current ADP Change 1 Wk Ago Change 2 Wks Ago Overall Trend NFFC ADP Diff
Aaron Rodgers GB 8.74 22.20% 10.68 -17.00% 8.86 1.40% 18.68 9.94
Drew Brees NO 14.02 -6.70% 13.08 -10.20% 11.75 -16.20% 19.07 5.05
Peyton Manning DEN 20.37 7.70% 21.94 -9.80% 19.80 -2.80% 32.00 11.63
Cam Newton CAR 35.47 -3.10% 34.38 0.50% 34.55 -2.60% 49.53 14.06
Matt Ryan ATL 46.91 -0.50% 46.68 0.50% 46.90 0.00% 50.23 3.32
Tom Brady NE 47.07 -5.40% 44.53 4.00% 46.33 -1.60% 46.83 -0.24
Andrew Luck IND 60.37 -1.40% 59.53 2.70% 61.16 1.30% 71.09 10.72
Matthew Stafford DET 91.56 -4.80% 87.21 -9.70% 78.76 -14.00% 66.67 -24.89
Colin Kaepernick SF 110.37 -15.20% 93.55 9.60% 102.57 -7.10% 67.88 -42.49
Tony Romo DAL 118.02 -13.00% 102.70 5.10% 107.94 -8.50% 73.73 -44.29
Robert Griffin WAS 129.63 -12.90% 112.94 11.80% 126.22 -2.60% 77.12 -52.51
Russell Wilson SEA 134.77 -22.20% 104.91 23.70% 129.82 -3.70% 73.92 -60.85
Eli Manning NYG 145.91 -3.80% 140.42 1.70% 142.86 -2.10% 92.04 -53.87
Philip Rivers SD 166.33 -0.80% 165.02 1.20% 166.96 0.40% 124.07 -42.26
Carson Palmer ARI 184.07 -3.10% 178.38 0.60% 179.39 -2.50% 124.68 -59.39
Michael Vick PHI 187.05 -4.80% 177.98 8.70% 193.45 3.40% 130.35 -56.70
Andy Dalton CIN 193.53 -3.20% 187.34 -4.00% 179.92 -7.00% 106.64 -86.89
Jay Cutler CHI 201.30 1.00% 203.40 1.20% 205.86 2.30% 124.19 -77.11
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 203.07 -1.10% 200.87 1.30% 203.45 0.20% 119.61 -83.46
Josh Freeman TB 205.63 -0.70% 204.25 1.90% 208.12 1.20% 118.27 -87.36
Matt Schaub HOU 205.77 -0.70% 204.40 2.70% 209.94 2.00% 132.13 -73.64
Joe Flacco BAL 206.12 -0.50% 205.06 0.00% 205.08 -0.50% 130.13 -75.99
Sam Bradford STL 207.88 -0.70% 206.36 1.10% 208.71 0.40% 127.47 -80.41
Alex Smith KC 208.79 0.60% 210.09
-NR- ++ 144.28 -64.51
Ryan Tannehill MIA 210.12 -1.70% 206.60 1.50% 209.69 -0.20% 141.85 -68.27

Let’s start with some of the changes we see with the Overall Trend on MDC first and see of we can make some sense of the changes.

The most notable trend change is the 16.2% drop for Drew Brees. While it only amounts to a small handful of picks, it’s interesting to see the number one fantasy quarterback getting passed over for Aaron Rodgers by such a significant margin and falling. Perhaps that’s one of those trend changes caused by so many one-quarterback leagues drafting. Again, there’s no real way to tell, but rest assured, there is no questioning Brees’ past or expected performance.

Matthew Stafford’s 14.0% drop, going from a mid-sixth to a mid to late-seventh round pick is far more eye-opening. Could people be losing faith in him? Reports out of camp haven’t exactly been glowing but they also haven’t been very negative either. Last season wasn’t exactly a dream season for the Lions quarterback, as he threw 17 interceptions to just 20 touchdowns. Of course, he also had eight games of 300 yards or more and in two of those he topped 400 yards. He’s got a solid complementary receiver in Nate Burleson (soon to be read: Ryan Broyles) and a fantastic pass-catching running back in Reggie Bush. Should he really fall to anywhere in the seventh round, it is recommended that you pick him up. With the potential for a strong year, he could be a huge bargain.

The rest of the fallers here don’t have drops that are all too significant. It’s interesting to see that so many are actually heeding the smart advice and are waiting on quarterbacks. Either that or we had a rash of two-quarterback drafts early on in the season and things are still just trying to level off.

As for any risers here, as you can see, we’re again just talking about a small handful of pick in the grand scheme of things. No one has done anything in the preseason which has warranted fantasy owners to rate him higher than he should be and thus drive his ADP north.

As for the differential between MDC ADP and that found on Stats, Inc. for the NFFC, it’s pretty easy to see what’s happening. The top six or seven quarterbacks are all going earlier in public drafts than they are in the NFFC, but once you move past them, that second level of quarterbacks  and beyond seem to be going much quicker in NFFC play. While searching for specific reasons as to why this is, the only one that I was really able to come up with is that, with trading disallowed in the NFFC, owners make it a point to grab their back-up quarterback earlier so that they have someone of significant quality.

So that’s really where we are with the quarterback position. There isn’t a whole lot of movement happening which should relieve fantasy owners actually as things should be fairly predictable once you step into your draft.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

 

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