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2013 W-L Predictions: Money Talks

Vegas has now posted their win totals and World Series odds for each team, giving the savvy bettor an opportunity to wager before bookmakers can adjust. Even though the first exhibition games have yet to be played, we have a sense as to how teams will perform in 2013. Here are my Win-Loss projections, along with the Vegas lines on Wins, Winning the Pennant, and Winning the World Series, with a few wagers I like thrown in for good measure.


AL EAST
W
L
WINS
PENNANT
WS
New York Yankees
89
73
86.5
13-2
+1250
Tampa Bay Rays
88
74
85
12-1
+1600
Toronto Blue Jays
83
79
86.5
12-1
+1600
Baltimore Orioles
81
81
76.5
20-1
+5000
Boston Red Sox
76
86
79.5
14-1
+2000
AL CENTRAL
W
L
WINS
PENNANT
WS
Detroit Tigers
91
71
90
4-1
+800
Chicago White Sox
83
79
80.5
20-1
+4000
Kansas City Royals
81
81
79
25-1
+5000
Cleveland Indians
77
85
77.5
20-1
+9000
Minnesota Twins
65
97
64.5
50-1
+10000
AL WEST
W
L
WINS
PENNANT
WS
Los Angeles Angels
92
70
89.5
9-2
+600
Texas Rangers
88
74
87
13-2
+1500
Oakland Athletics
86
76
83
16-1
+3200
Seattle Mariners
75
87
76.5
40-1
+7000
Houston Astros
63
99
59.5
100-1
+25000
NL EAST
W
L
WINS
PENNANT
WS
Washington Nationals
92
70
90
15-4
+800
Atlanta Braves
89
73
86
7-1
+1500
Philadelphia Phillies
81
81
81.5
25-1
+1650
New York Mets
73
89
74
40-1
+8800
Miami Marlins
61
101
64.5
50-1
+20000
NL CENTRAL
W
L
WINS
PENNANT
WS
Cincinnati Reds
91
71
89.5
6-1
+1200
St. Louis Cardinals
85
77
85.5
9-1
+1800
Milwaukee Brewers
81
81
79.5
18-1
+5000
Pittsburgh Pirates
77
85
79
25-1
+6500
Chicago Cubs
75
87
72
40-1
+10000
NL WEST
W
L
WINS
PENNANT
WS
Los Angeles Dodgers
91
71
89.5
4-1
+650
San Francisco Giants
86
76
86
7-1
+1000
Arizona Diamondbacks
83
79
81.5
25-1
+5000
San Diego Padres
76
86
74.5
40-1
+8500
Colorado Rockies
71
91
71.5
50-1
+10000


Orioles over 76.5 wins

It seems like everyone, including Vegas, does not believe the Orioles can repeat their incredible 2012 season win total of 93. They certainly had a lot of favorable bounces last year, but are still a solid team with Matt Wieters, Jim Johnson and Adam Jones. Even with a Baltimore chop to .500 in 2013, their 81 wins are 4.5 more than the line, and the largest differential among my predictions.


Blue Jays under 86.5 wins

Am I the only person who thinks an increase of nearly 14 wins from last season is a bit of a reach for Toronto? The new-look Blue Jays won just 73 games last season, but are being picked by many to win the uber-competitive AL East. Jose Reyes is good, but not that good, and I just do not see that much improvement, or a trip to the post-season in 2013.


Astros over 59.5 wins

When was the last time any franchise had three consecutive 100-loss seasons in a row? The Detroit Tigers did it from 1994-96. And, in the past 50 years, only one other franchise, the New York Mets, has done so (1962-65). It will not be easy, but the team that scored the fewest runs in baseball will be helped by their move to the AL and the addition of the designated hitter. The Astros have a .465 winning percentage against the AL, a mark they have achieved only twice in the past six seasons in the NL. As a result, I believe they will narrowly avoid 100 losses in 2013.


Marlins under 64.5 wins

The same cannot be said for Miami. With Houston moving to the AL, and a roster that was decimated by the epic-fail that was their trade with Toronto, the Marlins should be able to claim the worst record in the NL. Without Reyes, Mark Buehrle or Josh Johnson, the 2013 season will not make the Miami-Dade County $2.4 billion debt any easier to swallow.


Dodgers 4-1 to win NL Pennant

On paper, the Washington Nationals may be the best team in baseball, adding Dan Haren, Rafael Soriano and Denard Span to their roster. But, as a lifelong Yankees fan, I know that money talks. Adding Zack Greinke to a pitching rotation that already has Clayton Kershaw, Josh Beckett and Chris Capuano makes Los Angeles and their league-leading $213 million payroll my pick to win the NL Pennant.


Value Bet: Giants 7-1 to win NL Pennant

They are still the champs until someone beats them.


Angels 9-2 to win AL Pennant

The Detroit Tigers, with the 2011 and 2012 MVPs, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, will run away with the division this year, and be the first to clinch a playoff spot. But, the lack of competition during the regular season will be their downfall, losing to Josh Hamilton and the Angels in the AL Championship, setting the stage for an all Los Angeles World Series. Not surprisingly, the Angels $152 million payroll is second only to the Yankees in the AL, but that includes the $27.5 million being paid to Alex Rodriguez, who may not play until July.


Value Bet: Rays 12-1 to win AL Pennant

Their chances improve greatly if they edge out New York for the AL East title, avoiding the Wild Card play-in game.


Angels +600 to win World Series

Free-agent Hamilton helps bring home the championship that 2012 free-agents Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson could not.


Value Bet: Rays +1600 to win World Series

Comments

By: Redwave
On: 2/20/2013 2:14:00 PM
Dodgers vs. Rays in WS......like that!
 
By: Redwave
On: 2/20/2013 2:15:00 PM
Take the Under in 86 wins for Giants
 
By: mikewilki
On: 3/2/2013 5:06:00 PM
Wow. What cowardly projections. 3.5 games is the largest differential. Way to take a stand.
 

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