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2011 MLB Over/Under Win Totals - Initial Thoughts

I'm a big fan of the over/under win total bet for baseball. Since 2000, I've written a column each spring with my picks (here's last year's story where I went 2-of-3). Over that span I've picked winners 60.4 percent of the time (29 of 48) and 70.1 percent on a cash-weighted basis.

Here's the first over/under totals I've seen this spring, from Bookmaker.com (h/t to VegasWatch.net)

Arizona- 72
Atlanta- 88.5
Baltimore- 74.5
Boston- 96
Chicago C- 82
Chicago W- 84.5
Cincinnati- 87
Cleveland- 71
Colorado- 87.5
Detroit- 83.5
Florida- 81.5
Houston- 73.5
Kansas City- 70
LA Angels- 85
LA Dodgers- 82
Milwaukee- 84.5
Minnesota- 87
NY Mets- 78.5
NY Yankees- 91
Oakland- 82.5
Philadelphia- 97
Pittsburgh- 65.5
St. Louis- 87.5
San Diego- 75.5
San Francisco- 88.5
Seattle- 70
Tampa Bay- 86
Texas- 88.5
Toronto- 75.5
Washington- 72

At first glance I really like the under on the Royals and the over on the Brewers. I'd bet them now if I could.
I also like the under on the Mets and Astros and the over on the Twins and Rays.

But I need to crunch some numbers before I write the full story and make my final picks.
I need to do that article earlier this spring because the lines have moved a lot the past two springs after they were initially released.
My guess is the Brewers will rise since the Zach Greinke acquisition is high profile.

Who you got after your initial take?

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