2009 NBA Draft: Tiered Top-30 Prospect Rankings

• By: Justin Phan
• On: 6/24/2009 11:48:00 PM

Related: Justin Phan 


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With trade talks heating up and numerous picks expected to change hands on draft day, mock drafts are becoming less and less useful of a tool as each day passes. So instead of putting together a mock draft that will more than likely be outdated by the time the draft begins, I've opted to create a top-30 tiered rankings list of this year's prospects. They may differ dramatically in some aspects from what we've been seeing in the mainstream mocks and rankings, but they are a reflection of my thoughts and opinions on each player's pro potential based on a wide variety of evaluators.


1)    Blake Griffin (PF, 6-10, 248)

Tier Breakdown: Griffin is clearly in a class of his own here as the only prospect in this draft class who does not have a legitimate shortcoming in his game. He offers an impressive all-around package for a big man, coupling a highly proficient post-up game with the ability to slash to the basket and finish off of the ball. His skills just aren’t limited to an offensive set either – Griffin can get out and ran with the best of them in transition, where he finished with an impressive 1.32 points per possession.

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2)    James Harden (SG, 6-5, 222)
3)    Hasheem Thabeet (C, 7-3, 267)

Tier Breakdown: In a draft class that leaves very little to be desired near the top, Harden and Thabeet are the only two can’t-miss prospects outside of Griffin. Deciding which of the two to rank higher led me down the same road as it did two years ago when I was debating between Kevin Durant and Greg Oden: talent vs. size. While Thabeet offers an undeniable package of size, defense, and rebounding, his game is not nearly as polished and developed as that of Harden. Harden has the potential to be great while Thabeet will be limited to being just ‘very good’.

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4)    Tyreke Evans (SG, 6-5, 220)
5)    Ricky Rubio (PG, 6-5, 180)
6)    Jonny Flynn (PG, 6-1, 196)
7)    Ty Lawson (PG, 6-1, 199)
8)    Stephen Curry (PG, 6-3, 181)
9)    Jrue Holliday (PG, 6-4, 199)

Tier Breakdown: This tightly-packed tier is overflowing with talented guards who can get up and down the floor in a hurry. Many may wonder why Rubio is this low since he is usually grouped with the likes of Harden and Thabeet due to all of the upside and potential that is attached to him. The Rubio hype has gotten a bit out of hand though and has made him more overrated than anything. I can’t count how many times I’ve heard the Pistol Pete comparison thrown out there or praise about his incredible basketball IQ and playmaking ability. Little do we hear about how bad of a shooter he has been over the course of his career, averaging around five points per 40 minutes with a shooting percentage in the low 30s. Lawson is suspiciously low on most draft boards and should end up being a big-time bargain for whatever team that ends up drafting him in the teens. He was undoubtedly the best player on that ’09 Heels squad and his sparkling efficiency (3.5/1 AST/TO ratio, 53.2 FG%, 47.2 3PT%) cannot be ignored.

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10)    Jeff Teague (PG, 6-2, 175)
11)    Brandon Jennings (PG, 6-2, 165)
12)    DeMar DeRozan (SG, 6-6, 211)

Tier Breakdown: Jennings and DeRozan get bumped down because they are just too unknown of quantities at this moment. Jennings’ numbers in Europe were far from impressive and there are legitimate concerns about his ability to succeed within a team-oriented environment, while DeRozan proved to be very average and complacent during his freshman season at USC. 

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13)    Gerald Henderson (SG, 6-5, 215)
14)    Austin Daye (SF, 6-11, 192)
15)    Jordan Hill (PF, 6-10, 232)
16)    DeJuan Blair (PF, 6-7 277)

Tier Breakdown: Henderson, Hill, and Blair should all turn out to be useful players for their respective teams, but they lack the upside that the players from the tier above them have. Potential and upside are the least of Daye’s concerns; rather, his game is a bit too raw and he needs to pack some weight onto his skinny frame.

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17)    Earl Clark (SF, 6-10, 226)
18)    Terrence Williams (SG, 6-6, 213)
19)    Tyler Hansbrough (PF, 6-10, 234)
20)    Eric Maynor (PG, 6-3, 164)

Tier Breakdown: Prospects from Louisville have put up the lowest EWA compared with the expected value of any school over the past 20 years, which is bad news for both Clark and Williams. Hansbrough has a bigger motor and more heart than any player in this draft class, but he is at a clear disadvantage when it comes to upside and athleticism.

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21)    James Johnson (PF, 6-8, 258)
22)    BJ Mullens (C, 7-1, 258)
23)    DaJuan Summers (SF, 6-9, 243)
24)    Sam Young (SF, 6-7, 223)

Tier Breakdown: These guys have the size necessary to become valuable reserves, but they will have to patch up some major deficiencies in their game before that happens.

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25)    Nick Calathes (PG, 6-5, 185)
26)    Chase Budinger (SG, 6-7, 206)
27)    Danny Green (SF, 6-7, 208)
28)    DeMarre Carroll (PF, 6-8, 207)
29)    Patrick Mills (PG, 6-1, 175)
30)    Darren Collison (PG, 6-2, 166)

Tier Breakdown: At this point it becomes a real crapshoot because if history is any indication, four of these six prospects will become scrubs. My money is on Calathes, Green, and possibly Mills being the exceptions to this rule. Budinger should be avoided like the plague -- there isn't another player in this draft class that has as much bust potential as he does.