15 Reasons Why You Never Draft Pitching Early

Revisionist history is fun, right? Hind sight is always 20-20. But this theory is neither revisionist nor hind sight. Not drafting pitchers early in fantasy baseball drafts is not new. The following is a fifteen-pitcher starting pitching staff (fourteen of them not named Matt Harvey) with an ADP of 200 or higher and their stats this year, so far (as of 5/11/13). It will make you feel kind of silly for drafting David Price, Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez, or others of their ilk.

HOWEVER, if you happen to have any number of these 15 pitchers, sell high while you still can. Try to get one of the struggling aces. Get your profit from your home run of a draft pick. If you check out the RotoWire YouTube page, @Chris_Liss and @Jeff_Erickson discuss whether they'd trade Matt Harvey for David Price or Cole Hamels straight up. The answer is not so straight forward. Another reason why you trade for the top pitchers instead of drafting them. Too much uncertainty in pitching. Just imagine if you drafted one-third of these guys and combine them with some of the lower-ranked closers or highest-ranked set up men who have become closers off the waiver wire. Unless you had the worst strategy picking hitters at the top of the draft, you'd be profitting from fantasy baseball this year.

Without further adieu, the list (in order of ADP):

SP 1) Anibal Sanchez (ADP 204.50): 45.2 IP, 3-3, 1.97 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 58 K
SP 2) Lance Lynn (ADP 220.75): 43.0 IP, 5-1, 2.72 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 47 K
SP 3) Kyle Lohse (ADP 222.50): 43.1 IP, 1-4, 3.53 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 30 K
SP 4) Trevor Cahill (ADP 224.00): 45.0 IP, 2-3, 2.80, 1.16 WHIP, 34 K
SP 5) Matt Harvey (ADP 228.00): 49.1 IP, 4-0, 1.28 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 58 K
SP 6) Ryan Dempster (ADP 228.50): 43.0 IP, 2-3, 2.93 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 55 K
SP 7) Hisashi Iwakuma (ADP 229.75): 51.2 IP, 4-1, 1.74 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 51 K
SP 8) Wade Miley (ADP 233.00): 43.0 IP, 2.93 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 34 K
SP 9) Derek Holland (ADP 241.75): 49.2 IP, 3-2, 2.54 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 43 K
SP 10) Wandy Rodriguez (ADP 241.96): 37.1 IP, 3-2, 3.63 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 27 K
SP 11) Ervin Santana (ADP 246.25): 42.0 IP, 3-1, 2.36 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 35 K
SP 12) Hyun-Jin Ryu (ADP 256.25): 43.2 IP, 3-2, 3.71 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 48 K
SP 13) Alex Cobb (ADP 258.75): 46.2 IP, 4-2, 3.09 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 46 K
SP 14) Clay Bucholz (ADP 282.28): 50.2 IP, 6-0, 1.60 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 56 K
SP 15) Tommy Milone (ADP 285.38): 46.0 IP, 3-4, 3.13 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 41 K


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